My health still stinks so I will make this super speedy and just focus on getting the Charts considered.
Before that, we put out Podcast TPI 58 on Friday and you can find it under the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel on most Platforms and you can find it on Soundcloud and YouTube below: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-58-winning-investing-during-panic-ftse-boo-gtly-gaw-drx-upgs-fevr https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsP1ufAMKcU
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I don’t want to spend ages on this blog so hopefully I can stick to the key stuff and keep it short.
Talking of Shorts, I increased the Hedges I have via FTSE100 Spreadbets in recent days and you can see this on my ‘Trades’ page on WD1. I even placed my first Short on the Test System – I really hope we get a proper drop because it is essential that I try out how well the System Rules work to protect when we get a significant fall. We have designed the System to be infinitely scalable – but I don’t want to scale up much unless I have had the opportunity to test the System and Rules in a real-life big market sell-off. Ideally I will increase the scale from Jan 1st 2022.
I am starting this on Saturday Night and earlier today I went out for nearly 2 hours for a long roll down to Windsor Marina to take advantage of the much improved weather. It is so long since I had any kind of exercise and Lockdown seems to essentially revolve around eating (if I am not thinking about what I will eat or drink next, I am actually consuming something) and it struck me that my cardiovascular system really is crying out for a bit of use.
On the way back I bumped into Ewan Hughes (@EwanHughes7) who lives just around the corner from me and he came to the WheelieBash last summer, and it was excellent to see him again and to catch up on his latest Trading/Investing exploits. I was particularly pleased when he told me he had been out earlier and was walking around Eton and listening to our latest Podcast TPI 43, which he was streaming from Spotify using 4g. My goodness this modern tech stuff is pretty amazing.
Well Autumn is clearly trying to establish itself and things in Windsor are distinctly fresh today and the intense heatwave of just a few weeks ago seems like purely an imaginative figment.
Of course Autumn is particularly influential upon what Stocks do and historically it can mean some hefty falls; although there are no guarantees of this and after the utter spanking we got back in March, my hunch would be that any drop will be relatively mild, although it won’t feel much fun at the time I am sure.
In the last couple of weeks we have seen quite a good rally and Stocks have done pretty well. I am not moaning because I have done quite well out of it myself but I just can’t see this lasting and I wonder if the sell-off at the tail end of the week just gone is a precursor to something more significant.
I have mentioned this a lot in various places and just this afternoon on Twitter I was outlining why I am seeing a Pullback as highly likely quite soon. I simply cannot see how we have a rally in November and December like usual, unless we have had a Sell-off beforehand which points to Autumn and more specifically, September which is historically the worse month.
**SINCE WRITING MUCH OF THE TEXT BELOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT, I HAVE BEEN THINKING THINGS OVER AND WILL MOST LIKELY CLOSE THE LONG POSITION I HAVE ON THE FTSE100 AND DO A SMALL SHORT ON THE S&P500 VIA SPREADBETS AND I MIGHT DO THIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IF I CAN ONCE IGINDEX REVERTS TO ‘NORMAL’ BETS RATHER THAN THOSE WEEKEND THINGS. OF COURSE PEOPLE WITHOUT SPREADBET ACCOUNTS CAN SHORT THE S&P500 USING THE XPSP ETF AND THE FTSE100 USING XUKS. I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANYTHING AND IT IS UP TO READERS TO MAKE UP THEIR OWN MINDS WHAT THEY DO.**
The Markets certainly seem a bit moody at the moment – last week was tough going and not hugely much fun. As you will see in a bit, my Portfolio was down a tad and we had quite a drop in the US Markets on Friday and there is certainly a sense that a bit of a pullback is coming. The US seems to be getting a lot more Virus Cases by the day and clearly the chaotic approach to Lockdown and any kind of Social Distancing doesn’t give anyone an impression that the US Authorities, at any level of governance, are in control. If this gets worse and we start getting panics over hospital capacity etc., then it is highly likely it becomes a big issue and it could impact on Markets.
My intention when I am starting this late on Saturday night is to do something a bit different with the ‘Stocks & Markets’ Blog this weekend and if I can get cracking on this it should contain plenty of blurb about the Markets and what has happened and is likely to happen, and also more on my Strategy. If this plays out as I would like then you could be reading this on Sunday and I will issue a separate Charts Blog late on Sunday night and that one will obviously look at both long-term and short-term Technical factors and I won’t be including any other stuff in these Blogs.
Last week was obviously highly dramatic and more than a little scary and the speed of the drop was utterly bonkers and I understand it was one of the quickest falls from a Peak ever. This in itself is a technically worrying development and hardly hints at strength but I won’t talk too much about the Charting stuff in this Blog. I will try and break what I see as the key factors down into several headings. |
Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
October 2021
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