Well Autumn is clearly trying to establish itself and things in Windsor are distinctly fresh today and the intense heatwave of just a few weeks ago seems like purely an imaginative figment.
Of course Autumn is particularly influential upon what Stocks do and historically it can mean some hefty falls; although there are no guarantees of this and after the utter spanking we got back in March, my hunch would be that any drop will be relatively mild, although it won’t feel much fun at the time I am sure.
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I am sure you will recognise that phrase and it sort of sums up how I am feeling about the Markets. I talked a lot about this in last Weekend’s Charts Blog and I won’t repeat that, but in the week just gone the FTSE100 has been pretty soggy and the US has pumped up even more. I might be wrong but it just seems highly unlikely that we will avoid some sort of significant Pullback in coming weeks – and the Charts bit later will no doubt look at the reasons for this in terms of the Technicals.
I’ve really been trying to take advantage of this ‘Phoney War’ by getting out and about and making the most of what remains of Summer after the disruption that the C19 Fiasco has caused. I have lots on socially which is great and I am meeting up with loads of highly talented Investing and Trading mates which is very good fun as well as being useful for my own Investing efforts. So it suits me really to have pretty quiet Markets and not a lot of news about so I can crack on with the fun !!
In the last couple of weeks we have seen quite a good rally and Stocks have done pretty well. I am not moaning because I have done quite well out of it myself but I just can’t see this lasting and I wonder if the sell-off at the tail end of the week just gone is a precursor to something more significant.
I have mentioned this a lot in various places and just this afternoon on Twitter I was outlining why I am seeing a Pullback as highly likely quite soon. I simply cannot see how we have a rally in November and December like usual, unless we have had a Sell-off beforehand which points to Autumn and more specifically, September which is historically the worse month.
I’m sure most of us have been feeling the heat this weekend but it is nice really and I particularly like the evenings when things have cooled down a bit but we still very much have the summer vibe. After the rather weird year we have had so far, I get a real sense that I want to enjoy what we have left of the better weather and it won’t be long until Autumn creeps up on us.
The downside with Autumn of course is that it often brings weakness in the Markets and that can start in August and historically September is the worst month on average. With the strength we have seen, particularly in the US and on the Nasdaq, it seems that we could easily be set-up for a bit of a drop not that far away and I am very mindful that this is quite possible (and in fact I would say it is highly likely). I am not expecting a massive sell-off like we had back in March though, this would just be some sort of Correction and to be frank it is very much needed because a lot of stuff has run up too far, too fast.
I am starting this one on Saturday Evening because I intend to nip down to Swindon tomorrow to meet up with my brother who I have not seen since all this Lockdown silliness started. Hopefully I can get it all done tonight, but there are some very interesting Charts and I really must do them justice.
I had a really pleasant afternoon yesterday (and made even better when I got home and saw that my Portfolio was up nicely !!) as I finally got around to visiting the White Hart in Winkfield which is my usual haunt and of course it is where we hold the WheelieBash (more news on that in a tad). |
Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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