I am extremely pleased to be able to report that last night (I started typing this on Saturday night) I went round the corner to spend the evening with some old friends and I ate a yummy pork burger, a pork banger and a chicken wanger. That is the first meat that has passed my lips for about 2 months and my goodness it was lush. I also knocked back at least 3 pints of booze and didn’t roll home (I was rather wobbly !!) until after 2am.
Even more sweetly, I actually feel fine today and the pain from my stomach is at a very low level and almost entirely gone. It is so nice to be able to say that my health is getting better without a doubt and I am hoping that the new box of lansoprazole tablets, that I should receive in the next few days, is the last lot I need to take. I know several people who take these pills as a daily thing but I am eager to get off them because despite not noticing any side effects, I generally have an aversion to shoving chemicals into me unless I have no other choice. Beer is a different matter obviously because that is a plant-based health product.
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I’m back !!!
It has been a pretty difficult few weeks with my health playing up big time, and I have not been able to sit at the keyboard and bash out any blogs. Thankfully things are getting better and I am starting to think that the diagnosis (more like pure guess !!) by my Doctors, that it is acid burning my stomach wall, may actually be correct. Fortunately, the pain is much more subdued now and I am very pleased to say that on Tuesday, I actually felt more like my old self and had no pain at all. On the flipside, that didn’t last and today (Saturday night) it is at a low level which is bearable, but not perfect obviously.
I have talked quite a lot on Twitter about a new Index Spreadbet System that I have been designing for about a month, and I have had long discussions with several friends regarding what the faults are and ways it can be refined and improved.
My intent was to produce a detailed Blog about the System and to includes loads of Examples of it in practice, but with my Health niggles that is too difficult at the moment, and for now I have just bashed something together quickly based on some email discussions with mates. The attraction of the System is that it is expected to generate in the region of 40%+ CAGR on the Initial Capital Employed and a higher ROCE based on the Average Capital used. In addition, it has controlled and limited risk and for most of a given year, we do nothing whatsoever – in fact, my biggest potential flaw that has been spotted is that if we Hedge too often, then the Returns will be reduced.
I’m not sure why, but not only is my Stomach misbehaving today whilst I type this text bit before the Charts (thank goodness I was sneaky enough to write the Charts stuff last night), but I am also feeling really quite tired. I don’t think I had all that late a night but I was awake ‘early’ to watch the MotoGP warm-ups and maybe things are catching up with me.
It is a bit awkward because I would normally pump myself full of Coffee and eat some Snickers Bars or something just to keep me going; but with my ongoing Stomach hassles I am trying not to drink Caffeine and Sugar Bars are out really and this is especially the case between meals, where I think ‘grazing’ is not giving my Stomach Lining any time to recover before the next load of Acid is pumped into it from my Gal Bladder (I am no expert, but I think that is roughly how it works).
This is such a strange time with the Coronavirus madness still dominating the Economic picture, and governments borrowing crazy amounts of money, and Central Banks mucking around and suchlike; and yet Markets just look almost like nothing can stop them going up.
It is very normal to get a Spring sell-off and it looked quite possible that something was going to start at the end of March, but again the Bulls shook it off and even the likely highly over-valued Nasdaq, kept on moving up. This ability by Bulls to repel the advances of the Bears on the battlefield, shows an underlying strength that could easily keep going. And I suspect it will.
Unusually I am starting this on Friday night because I have some other plans for Sunday; but unfortunately my ongoing health lament is really playing up today and I am right grumpy. On that particular issuette, I spoke to a Consultant at Stoke Mandeville Hospital earlier in the week, and it looks like I will at some point get an MRI Scan and most likely other stuff like X-Ray and Ultrasound, but the catch is that it could be as much as 3 months away.
I have mixed feelings about this. Clearly the NHS is absolutely jammed solid with a huge backlog of work and it is also still fighting the C19 disaster, so I can see why there is a long queue. This suits me in that I am not overly keen to go near a Hospital (which seems to be a major hot spot of C19 infection), even though I have had my first vaccination stab and my Consultant would prefer me to have the second prick before I go in. The vaccines do not prevent you getting C19, although it probably means you won’t expire – but with my useless lungs I don’t fancy getting it at all.
I am starting this on Saturday Night and earlier today I went out for nearly 2 hours for a long roll down to Windsor Marina to take advantage of the much improved weather. It is so long since I had any kind of exercise and Lockdown seems to essentially revolve around eating (if I am not thinking about what I will eat or drink next, I am actually consuming something) and it struck me that my cardiovascular system really is crying out for a bit of use.
On the way back I bumped into Ewan Hughes (@EwanHughes7) who lives just around the corner from me and he came to the WheelieBash last summer, and it was excellent to see him again and to catch up on his latest Trading/Investing exploits. I was particularly pleased when he told me he had been out earlier and was walking around Eton and listening to our latest Podcast TPI 43, which he was streaming from Spotify using 4g. My goodness this modern tech stuff is pretty amazing.
From what I can tell those words are the title of an album by Lewis Capaldi and it did make me smile (to be fair, he probably didn’t mention BGO). I heard it during an interview with Ken Bruce on Radio 2 the other day and although I am no fan of his ‘work’, I must say Lewis was a great interviewee and has a charming self-deprecating manner.
I am so pleased to be about 95% ‘fixed’ now and incredibly the root of my difficulties seems to have been because a Doctor had told me to take Senna Tablets (nothing to do with Ayrton Senna but they do make you go fast !!) which are clearly quite a powerful laxative. I always assumed they were pretty mild because they are just chopped up and dried plant stuff, but I learnt the hard way that they are seen as quite ‘aggressive’ by the Health people.
This probably won’t be hugely lengthy because I am actually starting it on Friday Night and hopefully I can get it nailed and published on Saturday Night – because I am off to the Pub on Sunday if everything goes to plan. After weeks and weeks of Lockdown and all that, I am pretty desperate to do something a bit more ‘normal’ although in truth I don’t tend to go out all that much over the Winter hibernation period anyway. I don’t do cold and I certainly don’t do wet and that icy stuff is just not in my vocabulary……
Earlier today the latest Podcast TPI 37 was issued and I think Listeners will enjoy it. We cover loads of Stocks and some in quite a bit of detail, and also there is a lot about the likely Roadmap for the Markets through December and into January and Springtime next year. It is impossible to be 100% correct on such predictive slants, but having a rough idea what is most likely to occur, and having a plan for if/when that doesn’t play out, gives a very good direction to head off in.
In case you don’t read my Tweets (you don’t need a Twitter Account – there are Twitter Feeds embedded in several places on my Websites – have a poke around), I didn’t put out a Charts Blog last weekend because I had some health niggles. Hopefully those are better now and the flow of Blogs shouldn’t get interrupted again.
I am typing this bit on Saturday Evening, the 28th Nov, and we are really just 1 month to go in what has been a year that has thrown our emotions all over the place and our Portfolios as well !! I am sure everyone will be very pleased to see the Calendar turn over to 2021 and whatever happens, it will be a big ask for it to be worse than 2020. |
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