I don’t want to spend ages on this blog so hopefully I can stick to the key stuff and keep it short.
Talking of Shorts, I increased the Hedges I have via FTSE100 Spreadbets in recent days and you can see this on my ‘Trades’ page on WD1. I even placed my first Short on the Test System – I really hope we get a proper drop because it is essential that I try out how well the System Rules work to protect when we get a significant fall. We have designed the System to be infinitely scalable – but I don’t want to scale up much unless I have had the opportunity to test the System and Rules in a real-life big market sell-off. Ideally I will increase the scale from Jan 1st 2022.
As I have mentioned on the Podcasts and written in my Blogs and on my Tweets, we often see falls in September and/or October and after the unbelievable run up we have seen on Stocks (and lots of other junk like Cryptocrapto), it seems we are well primed for a full-on Correction to occur. I am not anticipating a huge crash like back in March 2020, but a drop of 10% or so on the Major Indexes could easily occur.
Podcast TPI 57 – with Super Special Guests On Friday we released Part 1 of TPI 57 which includes Phil Oakley and John Hughman who were formerly at the ‘Investors’ Chronicle’ and who have now started out on their own. We discuss lots of Stocks as usual and John and Phil tell us all about what they are up to and on top of this, we discuss many aspects of successful investing in our usual chatty free-form style. Feedback so far has been excellent and we should be releasing Part 2 in a few days. C3 also tells us more about the event he is organising in Leicester which takes place later this coming week, and has Open Orphan ORPH and Poolbeg Pharma POLB presenting. If is well worth the FREE subscription to our Podcast Channels, just for the Stock ideas !! (and no, we won’t be refunding any subs for dissatisfied Listeners !!) If you go to the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel on all the major Platforms, then you should find the full archive of ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcasts there. You can find TPI 57 part 1 on Soundcloud and Youtube at the links below: Soundcloud here: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-57-pt-1-an-interview-with-johnhughman-philjoakley-menphysuk-event YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Keg1BxpF2SE Last Week Despite some wobbles and me going quite Short with some Hedges, I was still lucky to see a rise of 1% on my Portfolio and it is just off the All Time High it hit back on Wednesday. This really has been a stunning year for Returns and I am highly aware that I want to protect my Capital and to ride out any storms before we hopefully enjoy a decent end to the year, as we usually get. My Shares were quite mixed but I have had some decent Results and Updates from them and on Friday there were rumours of a takeover bid or some sort of corporate activity for Clinigen CLIN – hopefully this will put a firework under them in coming weeks. Overall I am very cautious and I might even TopChop more to free up more Cash and to lower risk on at least one Position that has got a bit overdone and is quite a weight in my Portfolio. I also might Hedge more if we see more weakness, as I suspect we will. Blog Slate There is not much happening on my Blogs due to my relentless health problems. I am going for a Urinary Tract Scan this coming Friday but I doubt that will find much. My GP must have requested this but what I really want is a Camera shoved down into my stomach (well, I don’t actually want it, but I know I have to have it !!). Oh, I did manage to add the Photos that Steve Holdsworth had taken during the WheelieBash to the ‘Events’ page on WD2 – it is top nostalgia to scan down through the pics from all the previous 6 Bashes !! I also have a lot of entries in my book for tracking potential buys – I will update the ‘Little Black Book’ page with these as soon as I get a chance. It may not be a good time to be buying anything though. There is no rush. From the Dark Recesses of the Wheelie Towers’ Dungeons If you go to the ‘Blog Index List’ page on WD2, you can find the full list of Blogs I have written over the last 7 years, with links to the key ones. From that list I bring you this old beauty (or perhaps ‘beast’ is a more accurate description). Actually, it is not particularly old as it comes from February 2020, but it is probably worth a look through: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/3-simple-stock-categories FTSE100 All the Charts I show are taken from the excellent SharePad software I use and if you click on the images then they should get a bit bigger on your screen (I recommend you read these Blogs on a big screen rather than just a Fone – there is a lot of detail to be seen). I know some Readers actually look at their Charts on SharePad or whatever method they use as they read through my blogs. If you fancy using SharePad or ShareScope yourself, then you can get 1 month’s Free Data if you go to the ‘Subscribe’ page on their website and then select the Product you want, and then you should see a ‘Promo Code’ box and if you type ‘twinpetes’ into that box, then the discount will apply. You can also get this by clicking on the Adverts that are all over my websites. I get a small payment for introducing you, so thank you very much !! (it’s just a shame I can’t spend it on beer much at the moment…..) https://www.sharescope.co.uk/ I noticed also that SharePad/ShareScope have updated the landing page on their website and there is much better detail regarding the capabilities and features of their software now. In fact, Podcast TPI 50 contains a discussion with the Founder of SharePad/ShareScope, Martin Stamp. Highly recommended and of course you can find that one on the ‘Twin Petes Investing Podcast’ page on WD2. I am starting with the FTSE100 because it is of utter relevance to me after I increased the Short Spreadbets I have running to hedge my Portfolio – have a look at the ‘Trades’ page on my website WD1 and you will see the details. The odds look very high on some sort of drop coming, and I am now something like 25% Hedged and I also have quite a lot of Cash. I may increase my Hedges if we see more falls. As always, we should always start with the ‘big picture’ and then drill in on shorter timeframes. My first chart has the Weekly Candlesticks for the FTSE100 and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a Down Candle from last week and in isolation this doesn’t look all that bad. If we do get more falls, this Chart suggests decent Support at 6813 where my Black Arrow is and before that we have 7000 obviously and Robbie Burns, The Naked Trader, says in his latest column on his website homepage that he sees 6950 as a key Support level. If these levels fail, then we have Support below at 6600 and then down to 6407 where my Pink Arrow is. Note my Pink Arrow is also pointing at the Bottom Support Line of an Uptrend Channel which has been running for all of 2021 – dropping out of this Uptrend Channel would be a clear sign that Bears are getting stuck in.
Next up we have the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 but I am not focused on those here. My interest is in the Black Arrow which is pointing to a ‘Bear Cross’ between the Black 13 Day EMA Line (Exponential Moving Average) and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. Quite often these will lead to weeks of downside, and the conditions strike me as very much supporting the idea that a proper drop is on the way (not a crash, I don’t expect anything that dramatic).
In the bottom window on my next Screen, we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the FTSE100 Daily. Where my Black Arrow is we are on a reading of RSI 41 and although this is starting to get low, it can fall a lot more. In severe sell-offs, it can get down to RSI 20 or back in March 2020 it hit RSI 10, which was one of the key reasons I closed out my Shorts back then.
Last up for the FTSE100 here are the Daily Candles with the Pink Zone showing the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Doji Candle from Friday and note how this is sat on the Bottom Bollinger Band. We may see the FTSE100 try to rally, and if it can, we might see Resistance up where the Red Midpoint Line is (Red Arrow) at about 7120.
My suspicion is that if the FTSE100 does manage to move up, we won’t see much of a rise and it will soon fizzle out. Note that before the Doji Candle from Friday we had 3 big Black Down Candles – these could make a ‘3 Black Crows’ Bearish pattern. Something that I was aware of in recent days was how the short-term Peak where my Blue Ellipse is, was lower than the previous Peak where my Green Ellipse is. Lower ‘Highs’ could be the start of a Downtrend.
Brent Oil Composite
Normally I look at this before the FTSE100 but I decided to switch them about !! Firstly we have the Weekly Candles for Brent Oil Comp and last week we had a Doji Candle where my Red Arrow is and this really was just bit of a sideways grind. To the upside, we need to see Brent Oil Comp over $75 and then $77.9 and the big Resistance Level is marked by my Blue Ellipse in the Top Left-Hand Corner up at $86.75.
Next I am really interested in the Black 13 Day EMA Line and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. My Red Arrow is marking a ‘Bull Cross’ and of course this implies more upside for Brent Oil Comp.
My Blue Ellipse is highlighting a big Up Candle from Friday and this looks quite good. About 6 days before, there was a Bearish Shooting Star Candle and this peaked at $73.7 – clearly, we need to see it Break out above this level. Something else I see on this Chart of the Daily Candles is that we have 4 ‘Lower Highs’ since early July 2021 – that suggests a Downtrend is forming up, unless we see a lot of strength in Brent Oil Comp immediately. To the downside, there is Support at $70, $67, $65 and then down at $60, which should be pretty strong.
S&P500
I think many Investors have been a bit puzzled by the continual rise in US Stocks, especially when it comes to Tech (I have been !!). If a Sell-off is just around the corner, then we could see quite a Correction here, to pull in those rather racy valuations. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Big Black Down Candle from last week and this could be the start of a bigger drop; although of course it might not be. Note how the S&P500 is moving nicely within the confines of my Uptrend Channel marked by the Parallel Black Lines (Black Arrow) – if it falls below this Bottom Support Line, we could get more trouble. To the downside there is Support at 4400, 4367, 4300, 4233 and then down at 4061 looks very strong.
Next I am looking at the Black 13 Day EMA Line and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. These did a Bull Cross back where my Blue Arrow is and, incredibly, this has predicted the massive move up to where we are today. My Green Arrow is showing the current situation, and at the moment this is still in ‘Bull Mode’. A great signal that a drop is coming will be if/when we get a Bear Cross on this excellent indicator.
I changed the Graph Style from Candlesticks to OHLC Bars so that we could see the EMA Lines clearly.
In the bottom window on my next Screen we have the RSI for the Daily S&P500 and on a Reading of RSI 58 where my Black Arrow is, this is not high and this should not prevent the S&P500 rising if it wants to (there are other reasons to suspect that it won’t).
Last up tonight we have the Daily Candles and the Bollinger Bands for the S&P500. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Big Black Down Candle from Friday and it is notable how during the day we say the US Markets fall away and Close quite weakly. It is worth noting also (not on this chart !!) that the Nasdaq and DOW both did Bearish Engulfing Candles.
The Price is now sat on the Bottom Bollinger Band so we might see it try to move up early next week. If it manages this, we might find the Red Midpoint Line (Red Arrow) to be resistance up at about 4515. To the downside, my Green Arrow is pointing to Support at 4367 and down further my Black Ellipse is marking Support at 4233. OK, that’s it for now. Enjoy the latest Podcast and remember Part 2 should be out this coming week. Be careful, it strikes me we could be heading towards a bit of a much-needed correction in coming days/weeks. This is no time for heroics. Good Luck, WD.
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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