As per normal we have the ongoing Brexit saga and the key element regarding this is the length of any Extension to Article 50 that the EU will allow and we should get some clarity on that in coming days. It seems to be a battle between a short Extension of perhaps a couple of weeks which is favoured by President Macron or a longer Extension to the end of January 2020 as per the Benn Act. Or of course a combination of the two.
And from this any decisions about a General Election and/or any progress on the ‘Deal’ that Boris extracted from the EU will be very much dependent. Having said that, a General Election is clearly on the way at some point in coming months and that is yet more uncertainty and risk for Markets to fret about.
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It’s been playing on my brain for a while that I fancy scribbling a Stock Blog and I guess this is it !! Or at least Part 1 of it. I like doing these because they give me a very structured way to do research and I know Readers like them and of course it is exactly this kind of thing that attracts new Readers to read my twaddle. I like to keep my hand in on writing about Stocks as well and I don’t feel like I have written many of late as the Markets being what they are I have not felt a great impulse to buy much, and therefore there is not a huge need for me to do research. But it is good maintain my questionable ‘skills’.
Yet more farce in Parliament on ‘Super Saturday’ then and yet again the Meaningless Vote has been delayed but it is looking like it will reappear somehow in the next few days and one promising outcome from the Letwin ‘Weasel’ Amendment is that it has highlighted the size of the Rebellion against Boris and it looks like the Meaningless Vote will pass.
Clearly if a Deal gets through Parliament then there will be plenty of political theatre from the Opposition Parties who have really been entirely hopeless all round with regards to Brexit (I am sure this is something that both Leavers and Remainers will agree on), but it is a step nearer the Exit Door and even if Brexit does not officially occur on the 31st October, it will pass in a matter of days or weeks afterwards. There could well be a small Extension to get the Legislation technicalities through but the EU is entirely fed up with the ongoing saga and it is unlikely they will allow a longer Extension unless there is a General Election or Referendum – but both look unlikely.
As I seem to be doing far too much in recent times, I was watching ‘All out Politics’ on Sky News the other day (the one that Adam Boulton does in the morning) and someone on there was talking about Theresa May and saying how she had an “Uncompromising willingness to compromise” which did really smack the nail on its bonce.
This coming week will again see Brexit come to the fore in a mega way and we even have a Saturday sitting of Parliament which is extremely rare and the sort of thing that happened in the Suez Crisis, World War 2 and the Falklands War (I think this was the most recent time it happened – in 1982).
Last week the Markets got a tad nervous and we had quite a sell-off which is not unusual this time of year and if anything it is quite amazing that we got away so lightly in September. October has a history of throwing up some crazy moves although overall it tends to be a positive month but there can be some wild swings before it gets there. And of course some of the biggest ever falls in Stockmarket history have occurred in October but fingers crossed we won’t be seeing anything like that.
I’ve been saying for ages that the strength in Stockmarkets didn’t really seem consistent with all the negative Global Macroeconomic news coming out and of course the UK’s meltdown over Brexit just adds to an overall messy situation. Gold has been rallying hard for a while now and Bonds have been shooting up (remember Bond Yields move inverse to Bond Prices so the Yields have been falling and many are now negative) which screams “Safe havens” and this is yet more inconsistency with Stocks being so strong. Anyway, the Charts might give us some clues and I will look at them in due course. |
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