These initial 2 paragraphs have been added on Sunday night after I had written most of the text below on Saturday night (up until the Charts bit starting), and since then the situation in the US with the Protests and Riots has got very messy and could impact on Markets next week. However, my sense is that any hit to Markets will be limited providing that the problem doesn’t drag on too long and I will be watching the Charts like a hawk in an U2 Spyplane over the next few days to look for any signs that things are breaking down on the technical picture. I suspect a key factor on the Riots is how strongly the US Authorities enforce the Curfews they have declared and once a strong hand comes down it is likely many less committed Rioters melt away. Up until now the Charts have looked very bullish and I suspect any weakness will be snapped up by the Bulls. In my Charts chunk I start off by looking at the Monthly Candles and they are very bullish.
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I am sure I have used that title for a blog before but I really don’t have the time or urge to bother going back through the previous ones to check. So it is what it is……..
The Markets had a small wobble on Friday morning after the Chinese Government imposed more laws on Hong Kong and this led to fears that tensions between China and the West would increase. My Portfolio suffered because I hold HSBC (HSBA) but because of the recent weakness in that Stock due to the Virus crisis, its impact on my Portfolio was not all that much (the good old ‘Diminishing Problem’). Thankfully by the Close on Friday Stocks had recovered quite well and I eked out a tiny gain.
I’m sure my old college buddy, Martin, will recognise my slight play on a common phrase we often used back then; but with the deeply depressing march of time it has got to the stage where a mere 2 pints can really muck me up !!
I blame the Lockdown and the unwritten rule I have that I will not allow myself to drink booze at home on my own (of course, in practice this rule is not actually cast iron !!), for my miserable intolerance to alcohol. So of course last night, I ended up having just this couple of real ales which made me feel ropey as hell today and as a result I am starting this blog about 3 hours later than ideally I should have.
Well there was quite a large event for my Twin Petes Investing buddy Peter @conkers3 and myself last week where the culmination of quite a lot of time and organisation and plenty of effort on all sides, led to the Launch of a Sponsorship deal of our Podcasts by SharePad/ShareScope. You can read about the arrangement in this Press Release and I have no doubt it will lead to a lot more initiatives etc in the future:
https://www.sharescope.co.uk/press_twinpetes_sponsorship.jsp Of course I am extremely happy about this Partnership as it is a vote of confidence from a serious Company in the Private Investor/Trader space and certainly is a solid motivational boost to keep doing what I have been doing for the last few years and to try to keep developing it as much as I can. Clearly there are personal benefits but I am very keen to ensure that Readers can gain from such arrangements as well so fingers crossed this is the direction of travel.
Well that was a ‘funny’ old week where we got off to an absolutely storming start but then it all went very smelly in the last two days and all the quick gains evaporated like a Virus droplet on a hot sunny day.
It was certainly a bit squirmy for me just after I had increased my Long Exposure via more Spreadbets (see my ‘Trades’ page) and I am currently sitting on about 145% or so Long. However, I just don’t buy the idea that because we have a couple of wobbly days, then we are going down the toilet again. I suspect it is more about people’s inability to pull themselves out of the weeds and to see the Big Picture and they are suffering from acute ‘Recency Bias’ after a few days earlier suffering chronic FOMO (Recency Bias is where we extrapolate current events into the future and cannot possibly envisage that things might actually work out differently. FOMO is Fear or Missing Out and this was clearly in evidence during the early part of the week as the Markets rocketed upwards). |
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October 2021
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