In case you don’t read my Tweets (you don’t need a Twitter Account – there are Twitter Feeds embedded in several places on my Websites – have a poke around), I didn’t put out a Charts Blog last weekend because I had some health niggles. Hopefully those are better now and the flow of Blogs shouldn’t get interrupted again.
I am typing this bit on Saturday Evening, the 28th Nov, and we are really just 1 month to go in what has been a year that has thrown our emotions all over the place and our Portfolios as well !! I am sure everyone will be very pleased to see the Calendar turn over to 2021 and whatever happens, it will be a big ask for it to be worse than 2020.
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So Monday in particular and then the remains of the Week, turned out to be pretty momentous with both the fundamental news of a potential Vaccine and the Biden win (most likely tempered by the Republicans keeping control of the Senate), but also from a technical viewpoint the Markets have done some pretty significant stuff which I will come onto later in the Charts bit.
I got caught out on Monday and this hurt my returns for the week, although I didn’t really do much ‘wrong’ that I can actually fix as such. If anything, my only error was in having a FTSE100 Short Hedge which was too large and I should have kept it more in line with the level of Long Exposure I had in my Spreadbet Portfolio; in reality it was probably about 50% higher than the ideal.
I’m typing this first chunk of text on Saturday Night, and from what I am hearing it looks like Grandpa Biden will be the New President and with any luck the craziness of the Trump Administration will now go away. Although of course, none of the division within the Country will be resolved and it is remarkable how the US is split 50/50 down the middle, in a similar way to how the UK was over the Brexit Vote.
Of course nobody can know what the next 4 years will bring, although what we do know is that the American Public have somehow managed to orchestrate a Political Machine that will be pretty powerless and unable to get almost anything done. With the Republicans still holding power in the Upper House, then it will be quite a challenge for the Democrats to get much new Legislation through and on the plus side for Markets, it should mean that the more extreme Left-wing policies should hit the buffers.
I was truly astonished back in March when the Government willingly forced the UK Economy into Recession as throughout modern history governments of all colours have understood the link between bad economic times and social problems such as increased poverty, wealth inequality, worse health, shorter lifespans etc. etc.
So I am really taken aback that a Government – and above all that, a TORY GOVERNMENT – would deliberately force a Recession for the second time in around half a year. It is truly history in the making; although of course it would be fully justified to get a sense that this will not play out well at all. |
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October 2021
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