I really don’t get on with tech and IT in particular. This was highlighted this week when Peter @Conkers3 and myself recorded another TPI Podcast and we thought it was all in the can, only to find that nothing had recorded and we had to do it again. Exasperating.
The sad thing was that the original recording (that wasn’t actually a recording !!) was utterly brilliant and without doubt the best thing we have ever created. In fact, I would say it was the best Podcast in the history of Financial Podcasts and it was incredible as it contained loads of future multi-bagger ideas and now we can’t remember what they were !!
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It just seems such a strange market at the moment. We are up near All Time Highs across many Indexes (ok, that is more in the US and not so much in Europe), yet the stack of Macro issues just seems to get ever larger and the potential impact of each new factor just seems to get worse.
Of course in the UK the big story is Brexit and we are getting down to the final weeks and it is still not clear how this will play out although there does seem to be a sense that a Deal with the EU is going to happen but this is not certain and even if it does occur there are no guarantees it can get through Parliament. We also have the new issues where the Iran / Saudi rivalry has gone up a notch and there are lots of fears of potential military action but it is probably an outside chance still as the US is unlikely to get involved with a Presidential Election soon and Iran lacks the capabilities to fight on a large scale and it is more likely that they will continue with proxy wars using the likes of Hezbollah etc. I can’t imagine the Saudis starting another Front when they are rather busy in Yemen and we can be fairly sure they will be defending their Oil facilities a lot better from now on.
Last week I finally bit hard on the lead bullet and Closed (bought back) a large part of the FTSE100 Short Position that I have been battling with all year. If you skip over to the ‘Trades’ page which sits on the WD1 website then you can see more gory details and I have put some reasoning there with regards to why I have taken the action.
I will get on to the Charts later in this Blog as per normal but the key driver for my decision to reduce the Shorts is because most of the Major Indexes and now the FTSE100 as well have done ‘Bull Crosses’ on the 13/21 Day Exponential Moving Averages and I find that this is a hugely reliable and predictive Indicator that suggests weeks of gains ahead. It has been obvious to me for most of 2019 that Autumn would be my best chance to reduce the Shorts if we did not see a significant drop before then (I was expecting some drama around the original Brexit date of 31st March but of course the Government and Parliament bottled it and gained an Extension which they then went on to waste with their constant bickering).
I heard that quote on the ‘Andrew Marr Show’ paper review on BBC1 I think and it did make me giggle. Pretty much sums up the whole Brexit menagerie and without doubt after a truly bonkers week at Westminster just gone we can expect many more such weeks up to the middle and end of October and I will be staying very cautious. In theory the Remain MPs think they have ruled out ‘No Deal’ but Boris doesn’t seem to agree and the Government’s Policy is that the UK will be leaving the EU on the 31st October whatever happens.
It is impossible to know how this plays out although we can be certain a General Election is coming very soon and that will pile on yet more uncertainty and reasons for the UK Economy to struggle and for Stocks to find few buyers.
Looks like we are in for a truly bonkers time with Politics next week and I suspect we will see full on warfare between the Remain MPs and the Government, egged on by the political connivance of Corbyn and his Stalinist buddies. Parliament reopens on Tuesday early in the afternoon and the Prorogation (suspension) of Parliament is due to start between September 9th and the 14th I think – I guess it is up to Boris to decide when he shuts the doors.
There are 3 Court Cases going on regarding the Suspension with one even involving John (“I prorogued Parliament to avoid Cash for Questions scandal”) Major which is utterly bizarre not just for his blatant and shameless hypocrisy but because we are being treated to the sight of a Former Tory Prime Minister in effect taking the current Tory Prime Minister to Court. Truly ‘Blue on Blue’ (or perhaps ‘Unfriendly Fire’). |
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October 2021
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