My health still stinks so I will make this super speedy and just focus on getting the Charts considered.
Before that, we put out Podcast TPI 58 on Friday and you can find it under the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel on most Platforms and you can find it on Soundcloud and YouTube below: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-58-winning-investing-during-panic-ftse-boo-gtly-gaw-drx-upgs-fevr https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsP1ufAMKcU
Brent Oil Composite
All the Charts I show are taken from the excellent SharePad software I use and if you click on the images then they should get a bit bigger on your screen (I recommend you read these Blogs on a big screen rather than just a Fone – there is a lot of detail to be seen). I know some Readers actually look at their Charts on SharePad or whatever method they use as they read through my blogs. If you fancy using SharePad or ShareScope yourself, then you can get 1 month’s Free Data if you go to the ‘Subscribe’ page on their website and then select the Product you want, and then you should see a ‘Promo Code’ box and if you type ‘twinpetes’ into that box, then the discount will apply. You can also get this by clicking on the Adverts that are all over my websites. I get a small payment for introducing you, so thank you very much !! (it’s just a shame I can’t spend it on beer much at the moment…..) https://www.sharescope.co.uk/ I noticed also that SharePad/ShareScope have updated the landing page on their website and there is much better detail regarding the capabilities and features of their software now. In fact, Podcast TPI 50 contains a discussion with the Founder of SharePad/ShareScope, Martin Stamp. Highly recommended and of course you can find that one on the ‘Twin Petes Investing Podcast’ page on WD2. I am really interested in the FTSE100 because I am hedged 35% or so on my Portfolio via Short Spreadbets on the FTSE100, and my inclination to look at Brent Oil Comp arises because of how it can move the FTSE100, with the Oil Majors like RDSB and BP. having quite a weighting. On the first Chart for Brent which has the Daily Candlesticks, my focus is on the Black 13 Day EMA Line (Exponential Moving Average) and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. Where the Red Arrow is, we had a ‘Bull Cross’ between these 2 Lines and this means the Bulls are very much in charge. My Blue Circle is highlighting the recent Peak at $78 and clearly the Bulls need to get a Breakout above this.
In the bottom window on my next screen, we have the Daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) for Brent Oil Comp. On a reading of RSI 65 where my Black Arrow is, this is high but not extreme and it means Bulls have the ‘room’ to force the Breakout over $75 if they have the gumption.
Now we have the Daily Candles for Brent with the Pink Zone showing the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Blue Arrow is showing where the Small Up Candle from Friday was hugging the Top Band and this could go higher but it is difficult to ‘hug’ a Band for a long period of time. At some point this might just go sideways to take out a bit of heat. It is all about $78 really and whether or not it can achieve the Breakout.
If it does crack $78, then $80 up to $86.7 comes into frame.
FTSE100
First up the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines. My Black Arrow is pointing to a ‘Bear Cross’ and the Bears are still in charge here.
Next we have the Weekly Candles. Here my Blue Arrow is marking a choppy Candle that was created last week and the key thing here is that the Low at 6828 holds as Support. If it fails, then 6813 from where my Black Arrow is, could be Support but then we are looking at 6800; and if that key level fails, then we are talking 6500, 6400 and even 6200 as potential downside levels.
My Pink sort of coloured Arrow is marking the Bottom Line of an Uptrend Channel that has been running for some time now, but note how the FTSE100 fell out of this Channel last week, but it Closed back within the Channel.
In the bottom window next up we have the Daily RSI for the FTSE100. My Black Arrow is pointing to a reading of RSI 49 which is pretty much bang on the RSI 50 Neutral level. This means it is neither Overbought nor Oversold on the Daily timeframe.
Now we have the Daily Candles with the Bollingers for the FTSE100. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Down Candle from Friday and note this has turned down off a Bearish Shooting Star from Thursday (ok, perhaps it is a Bearish Inverted Hammer !!) and it could well just be that a lot of last week’s moves were simply a retracement in a larger down move. If so, the Turning Point could be 7131.
Note also how we have a succession of ‘Lower Highs’ as marked by my 3 Ellipses.
S&P500
First up the focus is on my Green Arrow which shows a ‘Bear Cross’ on the Black 13 Day EMA and Red 21 Day EMA Lines. This is very much in force and suggests more downside. Ignore the weird Lines – these are Daily OHLC Bars and are basically useless !! Note the S&P500 has dropped below the Red Support Line (Red Arrow) that has been running for many months. Note also that I have drawn in a Blue Line (Blue Arrow) and this could be the start of a Downtrend.
Now we have the Weekly Candles for the S&P500. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Hammer Candle shape which could be seen as Bullish but the context is poor because there were only 3 Down Candles before. By context I mean the likely validity and predictive capability of the Hammer.
Note also the S&P500 has fallen outside the Uptrend Channel, which has run for ages and ages, by falling below my Black Support Line (Black Arrow). Support from Last Week arrives at 4305 and obviously 4300, if these fail, then we are looking at 4200 to 4050 etc.
In the bottom window below we have the RSI for the Daily on the S&P500 and on a reading of RSI 51 this is Neutral. It also means it can fall or rise a long way !!
Last up we have Daily Candles and Bollingers. My Black Arrow is pointing to a small Up Candle from Friday and note it is sat on the Red Bollinger Midpoint Line but if failed to get over the High of Thursday at 4465 – that is the key and it must crack this level.
OK, that’s it this week. Good luck for the coming week and keep your wits about you, and no heroics or martyrdom please !! Regards, WD.
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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