As ever I am tight for time so I will try and just limit this one to some ‘admin’ stuff and then get straight on to the Charts. I have been watching the Argentina MotoGP all afternoon and with the ‘Special Project’ I have been on about being issued tonight and with a TPI Podcast that went out yesterday, I worry you’ll all be fed up of me !!
Last Week My Portfolio eked out a tiny gain of 0.15% on the Week but with all the Hedging and stuff I am quite happy with that. It has been a bonkers time for Politics and all that as we know and it is highly likely that we will see more of that in the coming Week and quite possibly for many Months to come. I have written huge amounts about this in recent Weekend Markets Blogs and you can look back at those if you want some points to weigh up but my Strategy is staying exactly the same of doing very little and staying Hedged. If you look at my Twitter Feed I put out loads of stuff on the Political nonsense every day and I try to keep the stuff pretty objective and relevant to how it can impact our Stocks.
It is pretty obvious to me that the only way to get out of my Shorts in a pleasant manner is to ‘Average Up’ on them and to Short a little bit more when I think the turn is coming and that is what I will be focusing on. I am entirely of the view that the run up has been too far and too fast and with the Economic and Political backdrop looking terrible and with Summer on the way I doubt Markets can make a huge amount of headway. April is historically a very strong Month (the second best I think) but then May is one of the worst, so we are in for some challenges fairly soon I suspect.
With the Clock change, I think the US now Opens at 2.30pm UK time and Closes at 8pm. We should get the US Non-Farm Payroll Numbers on Friday so expect some fireworks around that - the last Figure was a huge surprise because it was so bad so this might be an important signal around the health of the US Economy (which up until now has looked by far the best of the Major Western Countries). TPI Podcast When we recorded the last Podcast my Broadband technical grief seemed to have been resolved until out of the blue it cut us off at nearly 1 hour. Anyway, we both felt that we were flowing nicely and wanted to cover some other stuff so we cracked on with another Podcast and we sort of thought that might just be 20 minutes as an add-on to the previous one but in the event it is about 50 minutes or something and I don’t think much of it is time critical so we held on to it and it finally went out yesterday - you can find it here: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/wheeliedealer-conkers3-talk-bvxp-rdsa-bp-bats-imb-bur-isa-ethical-investing-more I recommend you listen to these because Peter @Conkers3 is without doubt one of the best Private Investors around and I learn so much from him on every Podcast we do. We tend to cover lots of Educational stuff and if you like what you hear it is worth listening to the earlier ones as well - most of what we talk about will endure over time. Interview with Michael @vilage_idoit I had almost forgotten about this one. Before I helped Michael with his excellent eBook, we did an Interview thing where we spoke together for ages on Skype and Michael then listened back to the recording and put it into text. Anyway, he sent me the text a few days ago and I had a read through it and suggested some minor tweaks and what struck me was just how ‘good’ it is (it is hard for me to say that because of course I was a major part in it and sometimes it is difficult for me to know what Readers will really love and what they won’t - but I am really chuffed with this). I think the key is that even though I have done loads of Interview type things now (if you go to the ‘Videos/Podcasts’ page you can find a few there), I have no idea how he managed it but Michael somehow came up with some interesting and unusual new angles on the Questions and he was very good at the follow up Questions that came along as well. I think it works a treat and you can find it here: https://www.shiftingshares.com/interview-with-pete-wheeliedealer/ By the way, if you haven’t downloaded Michael’s superb eBook then on his Homepage there is an Orange Button in the top right which you can click and that should lead you to the eBook. It’s FREE, so take advantage of it. Master Investor Show I have mentioned this for the last few Weeks and the Event takes place next Saturday the 6th of April. The Tickets are £20 normally but if you put in the Discount Code ’CONKERS’ then you should be able to get a FREE ticket. It is at the Islington Business Design Centre and I will get there around 12 noon and normally I tend to hang out in the Restaurant/Canteen area bit for most of the afternoon and it is a very sociable and useful affair. As a Wheelchair User I am easy to spot so come and say “Hi” if you are there. You can find out more about the Master Investor Show here: https://events.masterinvestor.co.uk/master-investor-show/about-the-show/ Blog Slate I put out the Final Part of those ‘Mechanics of a Trade’ Blogs at the end of last Week and I managed to piece together quite a nice collection of Blog Drafts which means I am nicely ahead of the game now (I had destroyed my Pipeline when I had those Hip problems a few Months back and it has taken all this time to get to the stage where I now have about 4 Drafts ‘in the can’ and this takes any pressure off to produce something each Week). I have had an idea in my head for a while about the concept that a Share’s Price (or Valuation) is in Micro-Economic terms an ‘Option’ on all future outcomes that can impact the Business - it sounds really complicated and it is but I hope I have managed to create something that puts this into layman’s terms and is a useful framework. I made really good progress on it last night but I suspect we are several Weeks away from it being in a fit state to publish. I also have another Blog which has a Sports Psychology link - it is amazing how so many psychological factors that effect Top Sportsmen and Sportswomen are also pertinent to Investors and Traders. My intention is that later in the coming Week I will issue the first Part of some Blogs about what I look for when reading through Trading Updates and Results Statements every morning - this will probably be 3 Parts in total and I think Readers will find it very useful. Looking in the Rear View Mirror Lining up with the Interview I did with Michael, I thought this set of Blogs which I put out recently were quite relevant and I have no doubt many Newer Readers will not have seen this - but it is probably quite useful for Readers in terms of thinking about their own progress as Investors: http://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/evolution-of-an-investor-part-5-of-5 There are links at the start of this one to the previous 4 Parts. Right, let’s get charting… S&P500 As always the Charts I show are ScreenGrabs from the excellent SharePad stuff that I subscribe to and if you click on them you should be able to see more detail. I have Shorts on the S&P500 and the FTSE100 to Hedge my Share Portfolio so it is those Indexes that I will focus on. I am just focusing on the last 6 Months or so and it’s a messy Chart so please look at my Arrows when I point them out. First off my Black Arrow is pointing to a Horizontal Black Line at about 2820 or so and this was a Resistance Line which has now been broken-over on Friday with a small Up Candle where my Red Arrow is (it’s a bit of a Doji really which is not all that impressive). It needs to stay above this Line and my Ellipse in the Top Left Hand Corner shows a Zone of Resistance which runs up to the All Time High at about 2941. A Breakout over this ATH would be Bullish (and surprising when you consider all the problems in the Global Backdrop). My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Sloping Support Line which has been obeyed for all of 2019 so far - if the Price falls below this Line, that would suggest trouble is coming. My Purple/Pink Arrow is pointing to where we are bang on a 50/200 Day Moving Average ‘Golden Cross’. These are a ‘slow’ Signal and not hugely reliable but these are Bullish and can imply Months of gains ahead. However, because they are a bit ‘slow’, it is possible for the Market to turn down quite a bit without impacting this Signal from the 50/200 Day MA Golden Cross.
In the bottom window on the Screen below we have the RSI for the S&P500 Daily (Relative Strength Index) - on a Reading of RSI 60 where my Black Arrow is this has turned up and there is plenty of room to rise still.
Next we have a Signal thing I absolutely love - I am convinced a Trading System could be created using this as a major part of it. Where my Red Arrow is there was a Bullish Cross where the Black Wobbly Line which is the 13 Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average - recent Prices are given more weighting) crossed the Red Line which is the 21 Day EMA. As you can probably see, this Bullish Cross is still ‘in force’ and won’t be negated until we get a ‘Bearish Cross’ like the one we had where my Black Arrow is.
This next one is very interesting. Here we have the Weekly Candlesticks for the S&P500 and my Red Arrow is pointing to a nice White Up Candle from Last Week.
However, this might not be all it seems. Look at the Candle from the Week before which is a great example of an ‘Inverted Hammer’ or ‘Shooting Star’ sort of thing which often marks a Turning Point where the Market then drops back from. Last Week we had a Big White Up Candle and to an extent this ‘Engulfs’ the Body of the Candle on the Week before but I am not totally sure this is Bullish - it could be that the Turning Point remains valid and we drop from here. The key is the High of the Inverted Hammer at about 2860 - if the S&P500 can get over this soon, then the Bulls will keep partying.
Finally for the S&P500 we have the Daily Candles with the Pink Zone marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. Where my Black Arrow is we are below the Upper Band and there is plenty of room to move up.
FTSE100
Again a very messy Chart but I will try and point you at the appropriate bits. My Blue Arrow is showing a Big White Up Candle from Friday and this looks Bullish. There is Resistance just a little above at about 7370 and my huge Black Ellipse marks a Zone of Resistance that goes right up to the All Time High at 7901 ish. That could be very tough to get through. Note below my Blue Arrow that the 50 Day Moving Average and the 200 Day Moving Average are converging like on the S&P500 - a Crossover would be Bullish but this Signal has limitations.
Next we have the Daily Heiken Ashi Candlesticks. These are totally different to ‘normal’ Candles and my Red Arrow is pointing to a Bullish White Up Candle and it is Big which is important. This is promising for Bulls and Heiken Ashis are very good because they cut out a lot of ‘Noise’ although they are a bit ‘slow’ as they form up over 2 Days.
In the bottom window below we have the RSI for the FTSE100 Daily. On a Reading of RSI 58 this has lots of room to rise and it looks like it has turned up again.
Now we have the 13/21 Day EMA Lines. Where my Black Arrow is there was a Bullish Cross between the Black 13 Day EMA and the Red 21 Day EMA and this is still ‘in force’ with the Black Line above the Red one. It is only when we get a ‘Bearish Cross’ like where it happened on my Chart where the Red Arrow is that Bulls need to worry.
Next is the Weekly Candles and it’s a similar situation to the S&P500 (I am sure by now most people have realised that all Major Indexes tend to be very closely correlated) and my Red Arrow is pointing to an Up Candle from Last Week but note on the Week before there is a very clear ‘Shooting Star’ with a High at 7370 ish. As with the S&P500, this is not clear cut and the FTSE100 needs to crack 7370 for Bulls to be really confident it will keep going up. This one does look more promising than the S&P500 really.
Finally it’s the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 with the Bollinger Bands. Like on the S&P500 there is lots of room to rise to the Upper Band where my Black Arrow is.
Burford BUR
I don’t hold BUR myself but I know a lot of Readers have it (and have done very well). We discuss it a fair bit on that latest Podcast and I have had some questions about the Technicals on it via Twitter lately - so I thought it would be good to chuck it in here. As always when looking at a new Stock (or ‘Instrument’ as Charts can be used the same way on anything), the right approach is to start with the ‘Big Picture’ first. So here is the Long Term Chart going back to 2015 which is when the Share Price of BUR started to move up seriously. This is a beautiful Long Term Uptrend and my Blue Line (Blue Arrow) is the Long Term Support Line and it is vital this Line holds and the Price does not drop below it. If it does, that could be a sign of trouble to come.
On the next Chart I have zoomed in and these are the Daily Candlesticks going back about 9 Months or so. First off look at my Red Arrow which is pointing to a Big White Up Candle from Friday and this looks Bullish to me and as if the Price is turning up again.
At the Top we have my Black Line marked by the Black Arrow up at the All Time High which is at about 2075p - this will be a tough Resistance Level to get over but if it can do it, that would be a very Bullish sign and suggest more gains. Before that, My Green Line at 1900p is Resistance and obviously this needs to be broken through.
I won’t do any more on BUR except to chuck in this Screen below. Note the Forecast P/E of 13.7 falling to 11.3 - that looks very attractive to me.
Diversified Gas & Oil Corporation DGOC
I hold quite a chunk of these and they have been lovely. Last Week there was more news on yet another Acquisition and despite a Placing the Market loved it and they are right up at All Time Highs again and likely to Breakout I think. If it can do it, then I suspect we will see 150p soon. This has a Forecast Dividend Yield of 8%. On my Chart below with the Daily Candles for DGOC I showed the ‘Triangle’ a few Weeks ago in my Blogs (look back and you will see it) and I said that if the Price fell below the Red Line (Red Arrow) that would be bad and if it broke above the Black Line (Black Arrow) that would be good - thankfully it went higher (Triangles are so cool !!). The All Time High is at 130p where my Green Line is (Green Arrow) and on Friday we broke through this Resistance but unfortunately it didn’t manage to Close up above it - we need a Close over this level.
Entertainment One ETO
This is probably my largest Holding and it has been a cracker. On Friday it attacked the All Time High at about 450p and it didn’t quite manage to Break above it. My Chart below shows this with the Green Line (Green Arrow) showing this All Time High Resistance and we need to get over it and more crucially to Close above it. If it manages this, it can probably get to 475p or so quite soon. OK, I will finish it there. Enjoy the Podcast and the Interview and I’ll see you at Master Investor. Cheers, WD.
1 Comment
Jean Black
4/1/2019 03:01:37 am
Thank you much appreciated, especially the update on ETO + DGOC both i hold thanks to you, I could do with a few like it.
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