I heard that quote on the ‘Andrew Marr Show’ paper review on BBC1 I think and it did make me giggle. Pretty much sums up the whole Brexit menagerie and without doubt after a truly bonkers week at Westminster just gone we can expect many more such weeks up to the middle and end of October and I will be staying very cautious. In theory the Remain MPs think they have ruled out ‘No Deal’ but Boris doesn’t seem to agree and the Government’s Policy is that the UK will be leaving the EU on the 31st October whatever happens.
It is impossible to know how this plays out although we can be certain a General Election is coming very soon and that will pile on yet more uncertainty and reasons for the UK Economy to struggle and for Stocks to find few buyers.
WheelieBash 2019
It was a big day yesterday with the Bash for 2019 taking place and I am pleased to say it went extremely well and amazingly we got away with decent weather yet again (apart from a short period of very light rain where we all decamped indoors for half an hour before braving the garden again and for the rest of the day.) What really makes the day is how everyone just gets totally into the spirit of the occasion (in more ways than one !!) and it is so pleasing to catch up with old mates who I regularly bump into at Shows and stuff and I really enjoy meeting new Investors who have been sensible enough to take advantage of this opportunity to meet up with a lot of like-minded and very experienced people. I would say the turnout was roughly the same as last year with perhaps a few more. It was great to see many people who were at the last one and of course a lot of first timers – I suspect many of those will be coming next year as there were a lot of happy faces and as has been the case in previous years, the atmosphere is just one of people having a laugh and hanging out with a bunch of buddies. Anyway, BIG THANKS to everyone for making their way to Windsor (including Montreal !!) and I hugely appreciate the efforts that you all make to contribute to making the event the success it is. Here’s the Group Photo although a few more people did turn up after this was taken:
Last Week
Things are obviously very choppy at the moment especially with the smaller stuff and I was pleased to end the week up 0.6% and part of this was probably from my Index Shorts although a few of my Stocks like Avation AVAP and MPAC had Results but responded in a fairly muted way but the big news was BooHoo BOO with a sizeable jump after a Trading Update saying they would “exceed expectations” and BOO is now making new All Time Highs and I expect they will go higher – I won’t be surprised to see 325p quite soon and in time 350p must be quite likely. I will not be selling any of mine. As I mentioned before I am staying cautious with the Political mess and with September having such a poor historical record (worst month of the year for the FTSE100), I don’t expect to be doing much and if anything I will be selling or topslicing and perhaps adding to my Index Shorts. It was very noticeable at the WheelieBash how pretty much every experienced Investor I spoke to was bearish and being careful and they have large Cash positions. Of course they could be wrong and this could be an opportunity for contrarians to buy but I certainly take the view that this is no time to be taking unnecessary Risks. Blog Slate Last week I issued the second part of those Blogs about how to cope with Panic and I get the feeling these could be extremely appropriate and worth reading to be prepared for potential trouble in coming weeks. I also managed to make very good progress on a Blog that explains the crazy layout of my Websites and how to navigate around them effectively and I may issue that this coming week. I also need to update the ‘Weekly Performance’ page with the breakdown for August and I hope to get this done. I would also like to add some pictures from the WheelieBash to the ‘Events’ page so I have plenty to keep me busy. Oh, and I have several ‘Non-Finance’ Books to shove in the Bookshop along with some in-depth Reviews. There are many other WheelieBlogs now in a good draft state so the pipeline is very healthy and Readers can expect a good flow in coming weeks. I intend to start on some Blogs about common errors that I see Newbie Investors making and I expect there to be loads of Blogs generated out of this concept which will keep me busy for a long time. There are also a few Stocks that I am interested in and I might do some ‘Stock Ideas’ blogs which go into these. I am not keen to buy much at the moment so I won’t be rushing to do these. The Ghost of WheelieBlogs past Something that came up in my discussions during the Bash were the important subject of Valuations and I see this as something that must be well understood by anyone who is serious about making Money from the Markets in a way that also enables sensible levels of risk to be taken. To that end, I bring you this old beastie: http://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/valuation-valuation-valuation-bursting-for-a-pe-part-4-of-4 At the bottom there are links to the first 3 bits. Right, better see what the Charts are up to. S&P500 As always the Charts I show are taken using ScreenShots from the sublime SharePad software I subscribe to and if you click on them then they grow bigger. I won’t show the ‘Big Picture’ stuff much this week – if you go back to last Weekend’s blog you should find stuff like the Long-Term Uptrend Channel and the Monthly Candlesticks covered in that one (this is also the case for the FTSE100). My Screen below has the Weekly Candles for the S&P500 and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a nice Bullish Up Candle from last week. It looks like it will attack the All Time High (where my Black Arrow is) at 3027 and if it fails to take this out that might suggest the Bears have not given up yet.
On the screen below my Red Arrow is pointing to a Bull Cross between the Black 13 Day Exponential Moving Average and the Red 21 Day EMA. I find this very reliable and predictive and this suggests more upside for the S&P500 in coming weeks.
In the bottom window below we have the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and on a Reading of RSI 58 where my Black Arrow is this is not particularly high and suggests more upside.
Finally for the S&P500 we have the Daily Candlesticks with the Pink Zone marking the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. My Black Arrow is pointing to a ‘Star’ Doji kind of Candle from Friday and this could be a Turning Point down. Note it is also moving away from the Top Bollinger Band.
It is Bullish behaviour for the Price to have broken through that Blue Horizontal Line that I showed last week (Blue Arrow) and if we do get a bit of a pullback in the very short term, it might find Support at this Blue Line.
Pound / Dollar
On the 3rd of September last week there was an interesting move on the £/$ which I am showing on my Screen below where the Black Arrow is and it was a massive Hammer Reversal with a Low point at 1.196. What is significant about this is the strength of the rebound and it could be that we have seen the Low now. Clearly 1.196 must hold as Support or we can probably expect quite a bit lower. My Blue Arrow is pointing to where the £/$ bounced but hit Resistance at the Blue 50 Day Moving Average Line – the £ needs to get properly above this if we are to see some sort of recovery. The correlation is not all that strong, but strength in the £ is likely to impact negatively on the FTSE100 and vice versa.
Ah, this is something significant. The Chart below where my Blue Arrow is shows a ‘Bull Cross’ between the 13 and 21 Day EMAs – that suggests more gains in the £ and this could happen for a few weeks.
FTSE100
First up we have the Weekly Candles. My Red Arrow is pointing to an Up Candle from last week but note how it has a long ‘Wick’ which shows the FTSE100 was unable to hold the High of the week. My Green Arrow is pointing to an Uptrend Support Line which was previously the bottom of an Uptrend Channel but this recently broke down. It is very possible that the FTSE100 will now struggle at this Green Line as Resistance and fall back.
My Red Arrow below is showing where the FTSE100 is getting near a Bull Cross between the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines. We should know in days and if we get a Bull Cross that would suggest weeks of upside. That would perhaps be surprising in the current Political climate and would also be unexpected if the Pound does rise like the Charts I just showed suggest.
My next Chart has the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 with the Pink Zone marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Small Hammer Candle kind of shape but in this context that is not hugely Bullish. It suggests a move up but it is worth noting that the FTSE100 Price has moved away from the Upper Bollinger Band.
My Green Arrow is showing the recent High of 7335 and clearly this is Resistance that the FTSE100 must get through. To the downside, my Black Arrow marks crucial Support at 7020.
BooHoo BOO
An excellent Trading Update last week and my Chart below shows a Breakout to new All Time Highs and more upside is highly likely here. However, my Blue Arrow is pointing to a ‘Shooting Star’ sort of Doji Candle with its High at a shade under 290. This suggests a bit of a Pullback in the very short term and it will probably wiggle around for a bit before the next Leg up. The key here is 300p and an End of Day Close over 300p would be extremely good news.
Avation AVAP
This is a belter of an Uptrend Channel and there are no signs of weakness.
On the next Chart I have zoomed in on the AVAP Daily and my Black Arrow is marking the previous All Time High at 299p and the Price must get over this which would probably set up 325p or so.
My Blue Arrow is pointing to the Candles from Thursday and Friday and in combination this looks to me like a ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ sort of thing so we might see a Pullback in the very short term but the key thing here is 300p and if it cracks that we should expect more upside soon. OK, that’s it this Weekend, have fun and don’t do anything silly. Cheers, WD.
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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