Firstly some annoying aggravation I need to write about which will no doubt affect you long-suffering Readers and myself for a few days. I have had a problem with my Fone for several weeks now where it gets extremely hot whenever I talk using it and clearly something was not right so I bought a new Battery from Amazon. Anyway, I thought that might fix the problem and determine whether or not there was a fault with the Fone (it is a fairly old Samsung S5 and in all honesty I could do with something a bit more modern), but in recent days as a result of what the title of this blog refers to, I have made a lot of Fone calls and inevitably the Fone got silly hot (it was literally burning my ear) and it has destroyed the new Battery.
I need to get a new Fone then, but because of simply far too many things going on in my life at the moment (mostly good thankfully but with me I always seem to pile up silly ‘negatives’ like just discovering that my Kettle has packed up now as well !!), I can’t get to Carphone Warehouse to grab a new Samsung until Wednesday afternoon. This means that I will be struggling to Tweet in the next few days but I will try to do a bit using one of my Tablets (needless to say neither has Twitter or ADVFN set up on them so I need to sort that out and find the logins and stuff – what a flippin’ pain in my spotty backside), but hopefully by Thursday things should be back to normal. I guess I should feel quite excited by they prospect of a new whizzy Fone but it just conjures up images in my mind of yet more hassle getting all the Apps and nonsense figured out and working on that device. “Modern life is rubbish” as Damon Albarn might have said.
Onto rather more exciting things in the Life of Wheelie, I have totally lost the plot again and gone and bought yet another Car. I am sure many Readers will have noticed that I own an ancient BMW Z3 2.2 as a Second Car for summer which I have had for 10 years but every winter I just find it a right royal pain in my spotty arse again as it suffers from damp getting in the cabin and in the boot, despite having a Factory Hardtop and a Cover and tricks such as them crystal things that absorb moisture. The simple fact is that I don’t use it enough (900 miles last year !!) and in winter it is probably damp in the atmosphere and the constant rain we get that causes the problems. I thought that my latest clever solutions to solve these issues had worked but a couple of weeks ago I drove the Car to Sainsburys and when I got in it I could smell that sort of musty niff you get when things are damp – although when I ran my hand over the carpets around the seats and stuff I couldn’t feel any wetness. Something isn’t right though and worst still, when I was taking my shopping out of the boot I swear I could smell fish and I thought someone had done that old trick of putting a kipper in there or something !! I had a look around and lifted up the carpet and could see some water (not much thankfully) swimming around the battery and that was rather a big disappointment. I don’t think the boot leaks or anything buy my theory is that when there is lots of damp in the atmosphere, this condenses on the inside of the metal boot lid and then drops of water fall into the boot. It’s all very annoying and as much as a love the Z3 I have really had enough of the aggravation and it is 19 years old now and I started to think seriously about looking at a Mazda MX5 Mark3 with the Hardroof that goes up and down on the button. I am pretty sure this will solve the Cabin damp issues and will also bring a huge lot more convenience in terms of getting the roof up and down and it should also mean a nippier and more exciting Car to drive. The MX5 actually has a bit less power than the Z3 (158bhp as opposed to 170bhp) but because the Z3 is a bit of a tank and weighs massive amounts, and because it has a very old-fashioned 4-speed Auto box, I suspect the MX5 might feel a lot quicker (and it has a nicer 5-speed box with Paddles on the steering wheel etc.). I’ve always had my eye on the Mk3 with the Hardroof since it was first released back in around 2008 and before I bought the Z3 I had a Mk1 MX5 with the pop-up headlights and that was a lush car and lots of fun (it was actually a 1.6 Eunos Roadster Japanese import), so I definitely have a sweet-spot for the classic hairdressers car !! My thinking was to not do something for another year but as I looked at them more and more on Autotrader and Parkers and watched loads of Videos on YouTube (Car buying really has never been easier with so many sources of information and you can learn so much about a Car from the Videos people so helpfully put out), of course the more excited I got. This also wasn’t helped by my mate Paul Hunt (@Lotusespritlad on the Tweets) telling me that life was too short and I should just buy one. He is most definitely a bad influence and I blame him totally for my utterly reckless behaviour !! So on Friday I just had to go and look at a nice Silver 2010 MX5 down in Guildford and once I got there I was just so impressed it had to be bought. Being 10 years old and with 72,000 miles on the clock (more than I would ideally have liked but the Car has a 1 year official Mazda Warranty which is the best you can get and it has only had 2 owners with the last one since 2013 – and full Mazda Service History), it has a few marks on the body and stone chips and the front wheels have been kerbed, but inside it is spotless and extremely good and the engine all runs sweet and suchlike. MX5 have an amazing reputation for reliability so I am pretty happy and parted with the £6895 asking price no problem. Sadly the Dealer just refused to deal but they are rare in Silver (most are black and look a bit boring) and Main Dealers won’t sell an older car unless it is something pretty good – usually the older stuff gets traded out and auctioned etc. There are 2 potential flys in the proverbial ointment though – firstly when I opened the boot there was condensation on the boot lid – so I might suffer exactly the same problem as on the Z3, but there is an advantage in that with this version of the MX5 the battery is actually in the front (my old Mk1 had a tiny little battery in the boot) and assuming I won’t have problems in the cabin, it is only the boot I will have to worry about. The other ‘minor’ complication is that the Driver’s Seat is extremely low – way lower than on my Z3 which also has the addition of an Electric height adjustment – and I might not actually be able to get out of it !! I didn’t try doing it at the Dealer’s because I knew that if I tried it and didn’t manage it, then I would not buy the Car. Because I am now committed, when I get the Car I will simply have to find a way of lifting myself out – I am pretty sure that my old MX5 was this low and I will find a technique with a bit of practice. Either that or I will have to get mates to lift me out whenever I go anywhere !! I must just add that the Car is actually miniscule – it is way smaller than my Z3 although I think it is larger than the latest MX5 which really looks too small and with a crazy tight cabin. It is strange because when you see the Mk3 on the road they always look quite podgy and bulbous and not so pretty – but when you see one up close they really are very sweet. Having said that, colour makes a huge difference and the white ones look particularly nice although I couldn’t bear having a white one for the obvious “shows the dirt” reason. Silver is without doubt the best colour for not showing the dirt !! The Car has to have Hand Controls fitted (that is another benefit because they will be the same as the flashy new ones I have on my Cupra and will probably make both easier for me to drive) which is going to be many weeks away and I need to sell the Z3 privately (if you know anyone who might be interested then please let me know – I am happy to let it go cheap just to get it off my hands and solve yet another piece of grief in my life), so I probably won’t see the MX5 on my driveway until early March perhaps. But by then it will be ready for Summer so that is ideal timing really. Zoom !! Zoom !! Last Week Well I am very pleased to report that my Portfolio gained 2.2% last week which is an excellent way to kick-off a new year and, fingers crossed, January can live up to its regular reputation of being quite a good month. I won’t dig out my old UK Stockmarket Almanac to give the figures (as an aside, I had a look on Amazon a few weeks ago for the version of the Almanac for 2020 and there was nothing there – I can only assume they have not done one this year) but from memory I know that January and February tend to be pretty good months and it is only as we get more into Spring that trouble tends to arrive. April/May are the months to worry about and for now I suspect we will see this typical pattern play out in 2020. The big boost to my Portfolio last week largely came from MPAC which shot up after an “ahead of expectations” Update and this is probably my largest holding now – but I think it is still extremely cheap and I have a Target of at least 400p and a stretch Target of 600p which I don’t see in any way as crazy. It is quite illiquid so at some point I will need to trim the Position a bit but that is some way off for me yet. I am pretty sure loads of Investors still don’t understand the transformation in this Stock and I am continually seeing comments about ‘Pension Deficit’ among other falsities. The reality is that the Deficit has been resolved and they no longer have any Tobacco exposure. I am almost fully invested and in no rush to buy anything more although I am thinking about buying something in my Income Portfolio in coming weeks. I am watching the Indexes for a clear signal to either go Long or Short but I am quite happy to sit on my hands if I don’t see a compelling opportunity to place a Trade. I am Long on my Stocks so I have no great need to add to this with an Index Long unless it is highly likely to be a winning Trade for me. I will look at the Index Charts later in this blog as per usual. Other than that I keep having this strange theory that we might end up following the 1990s pattern of a steady rise in Stocks through the whole decade, followed by the Bubble of all Bubbles culminating with the Dotcom Boom and Bust. I have talked about this a bit on Twitter but I will do more on it in coming Weeks and what its implications for Investors would be. Of course, I might be wrong but I am prepared whatever happens because if Markets go pooey I will be Hedging. I noticed that the US Non-Farm Payroll Numbers from Friday were quite weak and this can be interpreted both as being a sign of a weak Economy but also as a signal that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep Monetary Policy very loose – I suspect the latter view will win out and we will see Stocks continuing to rise unless we get a full-on Recession (this is looking less likely as the Global Economy appears to be crawling out of the recent Slowdown). UK Investor Show I keep meaning to mention this Show but forgetting to include it. Anyway, there are 2 big Shows that I have been to in past years which of course are Master Investor in Islington and this one that is usually in Westminster. It takes place on Saturday 25th April 2020 but at the moment I am not thinking of going to it but I thought Readers might be tempted. Anyway, you can find out details here: https://www.ukinvestorshow.com/ If you do want to go, then do a search for ‘Discount Codes’ or shout on Twitter or something and usually a FREE ticket can be tracked down. Master Investor Show Islington This is taking place on Saturday 28th March 2020 and is held at the Business Design Centre (BDC) in Islington which is in that London. I have probably been to this for most years over the last couple of decades and it can be worthwhile both for the Speakers and the chance to meet up with other Investors, although the Companies tend to be dominated by Oil & Gas and Resources AIM stuff which is certainly not by Cup of Darjeeling. Having said that, there are usually a handful of proper Companies and at least the limited choice makes it easy deciding which Stands to visit !! The Admission Fees are pretty cheap but if you use Discount Code BFMI you can probably get a FREE ticket: https://investoraccess.masterinvestor.co.uk/events/master-investor-show-2020/ I haven’t totally decided if I am going yet but I probably will and no doubt I will be mostly hanging around the Canteen area on the top floor. There is a Restaurant of some sort next door and usually we pop in there. It used to be pizzas but I think it was some sort of burger joint last year. NOTE – it looks like the Share/Cenkos Growth & Innovation Forum which is on February 11th is now full up but if you contact Dan the Editor at Shares Mag maybe he can help you. If you are lucky enough to have a Ticket already, then I will see you there (make sure you grab me and shout “Hi Wheelie” in my lughole). Blog Slate I published the Second Part of those Blogs on the Educational Page about how to hold Stocks for the long-term (by far the easiest and most successful approach in my view) a few days ago and I have made very good progress on the ‘Scores on the Doors 2019’ blog but there is still a lot to write. I hope to get that out later this week but with the Fone problems I am having it might get delayed a bit. My focus will be on getting this done but please bear with me. I also updated the ‘Little Black Book’ page which is on this Website (WD2 – use the Dropdown Menu) with lots of Stock Ideas which need more investigation. If things go to plan we hope to be recording some more Podcasts later this week so the flow of those should keep coming. If you go to the ‘Podcasts’ page on this Website (WD2) then you can find links to all the previous ones. We have also been making excellent progress on improving the quality of the recordings even more and this should make a difference in the Podcasts you hear soon. After that I have loads of blog ideas to write so once I have the Fone resolved I should be able to get more done – having said that I seem to have suddenly got a much more busy social life and there never is enough time to achieve everything I want to do !! Zooming into History This one is from back in September 2017 but it is very apt at the moment because I have seen so many people on Twitter mention that they were too late on MPAC – I think this is completely wrong and I expect lots more upside in addition to already being hugely up on my average buy price. This blog explains the logic anyway: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/i-cant-buy-that-ive-missed-the-boat Right, it’s Chart time…….. S&P500 As per normal all the Charts I show are screengrabs from SharePad and if you click on them then the images should grow larger. There are some hints on the Daily Chart that a Pullback could be coming but this needn’t be a large drop. I will move on to that shortly but first up we have the Weekly Candlesticks. My Blue Arrow is pointing at a big White Up Candle for last week and this looks Bullish – however, note it did Close off the High of the week and we will look at this more on the Daily. An important thing to note on this Chart is how we were in a Sideways sort of rising Range for a couple of years and my Green Parallel Lines show this Range hopefully. Note how around 3 months ago we broke-out of the Upper Green Line and this is a very bullish development and supports my long-term view that this Bull Market is not over yet and as a possibility maybe a repeat of the 1990s can happen. In fact, we could get a quite large drop to 3070 and still be well within the bounds of the Bull Market continuing.
Next we have the Daily Candles for the S&P500 but I am interested here in the 13 and 21 Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Lines – the Black one is the 13 Day EMA and the Red one is the 21. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Bull Cross on these Lines and if you look where we are now, we are still very much in Bull Mode using this excellent Indicator.
If we were to get a Bear Cross, like what happened back where the Black Arrow is, then that would be something to raise concern – but it could still just be a short-term Pullback.
In the bottom window on my Screen below we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the S&P500 Daily. On a Reading of RSI 73 where my Black Arrow is, that is a very high level and a Pullback of some sort is certainly due.
The next Chart has the Daily Candles for the S&P500 with the Pink Zone marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Black Arrow is pointing to a Black Down Candle from Friday and note how it dropped from the Upper Bollinger Band and it looks most likely we will see a drop in the very short term. However, there is decent Support at the Bottom Bollinger Band so the 3215 kind of Level might hold and let the Rally continue with just a small blip.
FTSE100
First up the Weekly Candlesticks and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a Down Candle for last week but note it has a long ‘Tail’ down below where it Closed off the Low. After the jump up a couple of weeks ago, this looks a bit wobbly but it might just be that a ‘Bull Flag’ is forming – we will look at this on the Daily Chart in a bit. The Red Curve (marked by my Red Arrow) is an attempt I made months ago to highlight a possible Bearish ‘Rolling Top’ pattern and the recent Bullish behavior suggests this Bearish scenario will not play out. However, we need to see continuing strength very soon if this Rolling Top is to be avoided.
On the Chart below which has Daily Candles, I am interested in the Black Line 13 Day EMA and the Red Line 21 Day EMA. We had a Bull Cross back where my Black Arrow is and we are currently still nicely in Bull Mode. One of the great features of this Signal is that we can get quite a drop on the Daily Moves but still stay Bullish on the 13/21 Day EMAs – they cut out a lot of Noise.
In the bottom window on the Screen below we have the RSI for the Daily FTSE100. Where my Black Arrow is we are on a Reading of RSI 62 and this is not all that high so there is room to rise.
Lastly for the FTSE100 we have the Daily Candles on the Chart below and the Pink Zone is the Bollinger Bands. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a sort of ‘Shooting Star’ shaped Candle from Friday and this shows some weakness. However, the key thing here is a possible Bull Flag – my Red Ellipse is trying to show the Flag bit and my Red Parallelogram (is that actually what it is?) is an attempt to show the Flag ‘Pole’ bit. If I am right and this is a Bull Flag, then expect a Breakout to the upside soon and a fairly big move – maybe as much as 300-400 points.
If we focus on the Flag, this is really a Sideways Consolidation move and there is Support at 7525 and Resistance at 7665. Below that there is very good Support at 7450 ish where my Green Line with the Green Arrow is.
BT Group BT.A
I have mentioned this Chart a lot on Twitter and from a fundamental viewpoint some big Director buying (I think it was the CFO) is of particular interest. The Chart below goes back many years and the key thing here is that the Downtrend Resistance Line marked by my Green Line and Green Arrow look like they are being broken-out of. I think the Key Level here is 212p and a nice Close over this level would suggest to me that a new Uptrend is starting. My Blue Arrow is pointing at a near Bullish ‘Golden Cross’ between the Dark Blue Wavy Line which is the 50 Day Moving Average and the Lighter Blue Wavy Line which is the 200 Day Moving Average. However, when I zoom in more I see that the Golden Cross has been missed due to recent weakness so maybe the Bullish scenario will not play out. Focus on that 212p level.
Secure Trust Bank STB
This one is a Main Tip in Investors Chronicle this week and it has a very similar looking Chart to BT.A. Again we have a Downtrend Resistance Line which I have shown in Green (with a Green Arrow) and this has been broken out of quite clearly. My Blue Arrow is again pointing at a Bullish Golden Cross on the 50/200 Day MA and this time it looks much better. STB also has an expected Dividend Yield of 5.4% rising to 5.6% which is quite attractive. I won’t show it because I want to wrap this up, but on Thursday and Friday last week we had Hammer Candles which could indicate it is turning up very Short Term as well. OK, that’s it for this week. Good luck for coming travails and make sure you keep away from Car Dealer Forecourts !! Cheers, WD.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
October 2021
Categories
All
|