I’m starting this on Saturday night (and hopefully I can complete it tonight !!) as I am hoping to watch MotoGP all morning tomorrow and then in the afternoon/evening I am popping down to Fleet in Hampshire to visit a mate. Time is quite tight (mainly because I have spent all day watching the MotoGP Qualifying !!) so it may not be the longest Blog I have bashed out.
We got quite a sell-off during the week on the FTSE100 and the Triangle that I was talking about broke to the downside. This is clearly not good news although there was a huge bounce on Friday and it is pretty opaque with regards to how far this can continue in the coming week. I will look at the relevant Charts in a bit, and if I remember I will also look at how the Monthlies are shaping up because we have just one week left in October and the Candlesticks for September were a bit rubbish. Bearish Candles for October might suggest we will not have an easy close out to 2020. With the Economic disaster unfolding no one should be shocked.
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Rightly or wrongly, we seem as a Nation to be fully in the tractor-beam of another total Lockdown and of course the economic, social, cultural, health, political, etc. ramifications of this are immense and there are no upsides here. With such a backdrop it seems to me that this is an extremely dangerous time to be buying Stocks and I am now up to 50% Hedged via FTSE100 Short Spreadbets (see my ‘Trades’ page on WD1) and I have no intentions of buying anything, and my bias will be to the sell side.
On top of all the Virus challenges, we also have a potentially very messy Presidential Election in the US and later this coming week there is another TV debate between Biden and Trump which is unlikely to calm the waters in any way. I think the Election is a couple of weeks away and it would be nice to see that sorted but my fear is that if Biden wins then Trump won’t accept it with any kind of grace (blimey, what an understatement that is) which could mean all sorts of strife both in the Courts and on the Streets.
No, I’m not talking about the performance of my Portfolio last week, but this was how Kier Starmer (Labour party so-called Leader) characterized the mess that our current government is creating. He isn’t far wrong !!
The latest GDP figures (looks like they are for August so the situation in September is likely to be pretty scary) shows GDP growth of 2.1% and this was a fair bit behind some expectations of 4%+. After a strong bounce-back after Lockdown was eased, it is clear that growth is slowing and I think the most likely scenario is that growth continues to contract as we get into the ‘Second Wave’ (that’s not waving, it’s drowning !!), and the government policies destroy any remaining flickers of economic life. With such a background it is difficult to get bullish on Stocks although the Charts are telling me that the US wants to go higher, even with the Presidential Election not far away (and the potential for mess that creates). I will look at how the Charts stand later in this blog but just on fundamentals the outlook for the UK is pretty rough and that is without the Brexit situation as well. On the subject of Brexit, it strikes me that a deal will be cobbled together and a lot of the noise we have been hearing is the usual idiot politicians (on both sides !!!) playing the macho bully boys. Pathetic. I hope you like Fudge.
Just when we think the Political world cannot get any more nuts, we find out that the President has got C19. Goodness knows where this goes and there seems to be so much conflicting information emanating from White House sources. In reality, although Trump is not a young chap and he is so say ‘obese’ etc., his risk of expiring is actually quite low and of course he will have the advantages of probably getting access to the best medical resources on the planet.
It’s pretty obvious from the videos Trump has put out that he is ill but as yet he doesn’t look like he is about to keel over. There seems to be an implication that he was given oxygen a few days ago so clearly C19 has got its teeth into him, but the mere fact he is able to sit up and do a video without being out of breath suggests it ain’t got him yet. |
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October 2021
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