**SINCE WRITING MUCH OF THE TEXT BELOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT, I HAVE BEEN THINKING THINGS OVER AND WILL MOST LIKELY CLOSE THE LONG POSITION I HAVE ON THE FTSE100 AND DO A SMALL SHORT ON THE S&P500 VIA SPREADBETS AND I MIGHT DO THIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IF I CAN ONCE IGINDEX REVERTS TO ‘NORMAL’ BETS RATHER THAN THOSE WEEKEND THINGS. OF COURSE PEOPLE WITHOUT SPREADBET ACCOUNTS CAN SHORT THE S&P500 USING THE XPSP ETF AND THE FTSE100 USING XUKS. I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANYTHING AND IT IS UP TO READERS TO MAKE UP THEIR OWN MINDS WHAT THEY DO.**
The Markets certainly seem a bit moody at the moment – last week was tough going and not hugely much fun. As you will see in a bit, my Portfolio was down a tad and we had quite a drop in the US Markets on Friday and there is certainly a sense that a bit of a pullback is coming. The US seems to be getting a lot more Virus Cases by the day and clearly the chaotic approach to Lockdown and any kind of Social Distancing doesn’t give anyone an impression that the US Authorities, at any level of governance, are in control. If this gets worse and we start getting panics over hospital capacity etc., then it is highly likely it becomes a big issue and it could impact on Markets.
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That was quite a week. I remember Monday Morning when the FTSE100 opened below 6000 and things were looking a little bit wobbly but by the end of the day there had been a decent recovery; and by the time we closed on Friday night it had turned out a pretty good week. There are some short-term negative signs from the US but we need to be careful with price action on a Friday because it is often skewed by low volumes and choppiness. In the bigger picture things still seem bullish and that is certainly the stance I am playing to.
I got a bit carried away and actually bought a new Stock last week (see my ‘Trades’ page on WD1 for all details on my Trades) which was Bango BGO and if you tune in to the latest TPI Podcast, which we released a couple of days ago, then you can hear more about it. I am in the process of writing a ‘Buy Rationale’ Blog about BGO and that will probably appear in the next few weeks. I see BGO as having a lot of potential upside if I am patient and it is in the sweet theme of Mobile Payments which means I am tacking with a strong tailwind.
Quite a tough week just gone by with Thursday being particularly painful although things calmed down a bit on Friday and perhaps the Markets can turn up off of this. I will go into the Charts later in this Blog and I expect to see quite a few signs that we are near pretty solid Support and a move up is quite likely.
Something to watch out for is that there is talk of a ‘Second Wave’ in Beijing, China, where apparently a localised Lockdown has been put on again. There is a lot of fear about a Second Wave and I am not convinced it is anything more than scare stories but it is something to keep an eye on because the Markets might get a bit frightened if they feel major Economies might go into Lockdown again with the associated crushing impacts on GDP etc. I have also noticed some talk of Iran having another Outbreak – again worth keeping tabs on.
After just over 5 months of 2020 I have at last managed the round trip and seen my Portfolio smashed to pieces a couple of months ago, and now back to having my head above water and breathing nice unadulterated air !! It’s a great feeling and vindication of my Approach with the focus on Hedging and Long Index Trades to make the most of the dip and the rebound; and with luck I can add some more gains before the Markets decide to get grumpy again.
In last weekend’s Charts Blog I mentioned how I was a bit worried about the Race Protests and more importantly the Riots and Looting and consequently I ended up closing all my Index Longs to lower Exposure and Risk and then a few days later when things had calmed down, I started adding again. It’s all on my ‘Trades’ page on WD1 and on this latest Podcast, TPI 24, there is more about it (by the way, you can get it on something called ‘Overcast’ now I understand – it’s on the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel): |
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October 2021
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