The title this weekend could easily refer to myself for being such a complete twit and after many weeks of trying to repair a cut on the knuckle on my middle finger on my right hand, only to go and cut the second finger on my left hand when shaving this morning. It’s nuts – after weeks of irritation with the damage on my right hand continually popping open, I go and mess up my other hand as well. Certainly makes typing rather sluggish.
Of course, I would have a predominantly white bathroom and it really was like a scene from ‘Psycho’; it’s remarkable how much WheelieBlood can pump out of a tiny nick on my finger.
Anyway, the TWIT50 is not me but it is a cracker of a Discount Code that David Stredder @carmensfella has put out for just a few more days which gets you 50% off Tickets to the Mello Event in May at a Hotel in Chiswick and it could be well worth Readers taking advantage, as many have already. The more Stocks and Companies bit runs on Wednesday 20th May and Thursday 21st May and then there is a Funds day on the Tuesday 19th which you might fancy. I had been telling everyone that I will be there on the Friday, but that is going to be rather lonely for me !! We are due to run a ‘TPI Live’ session and we are yet to determine which day it will be – I will let you know as soon as I know, but it won’t be the Tuesday. You can find out more and book tickets using your TWIT50 Code here:
https://melloevents.com/event/ These really are the truly premier Private Investor Events in the UK and the quality of the Companies presenting is of a considerably higher standard than all the Oil & Gas stuff you get at the lower priced London Shows. Not only do you get the chance to speak to loads of Companies and see a myriad of Presentations in the various rooms, you also get the opportunity to hang out in the bar with the top echelon of Private Investors in the Country and the collective wealth of the attendees must be immense. It is rare for David to give us a chance to get 50% off so make sure you go for it. If you find just one decent company that you invest in, it will more than pay for your tickets if it works out as you would like. I’ll see you there !! Shares Magazine / Cenkos Innovation Event Last Tuesday I went up to the Big Smoke to attend this Event in Islington at the Business Design Centre. Of course the day got off to a bad start for me because I was stupid enough to use my Satnav which was totally unnecessary because I know exactly how to get there having been to Shows at the BDC for probably 15 years +; and it led me totally astray and I was roughly an hour later than I wanted to be and then when I arrive I find all the Disabled Parking Bays had been taken (by Electric Cars recharging – arghhh !!) and I end up having a protracted and unnecessary squabble with the Security chaps at the BDC before they finally gave in and let me park just outside the front. I had a great day though and totally loved it. After 5 and a half years of doing this WD stuff I have met up with a huge number of Private Investors and there are many I now count as close friends. So I met up with loads of people I know, and also a lot of people who read these Blogs and follow me on Twitter and listen to TPI Podcasts etc., sought me out and it was such fun to meet everyone. We spent ages just chilling out really and chatting while we slurped coffee and chomped dodgy sandwiches and then later a big group of us went to the Restaurant next door and had a meal and plenty of beer was gulped down I can tell you. Not by me though as I was driving but we had a damn good time. Of course with all this socialising I nearly forgot the point of why I was at the Show and I did finally get round to having an extremely long discussion with the chaps at Water Intelligence WATR and after this I am pretty keen to buy more Shares and I will likely do this soon. They have big plans for the next 5 years and they make sense to me and could create a Company worth multiples of what it is today. I was well impressed. I also had a long chat with the geezers at Duke Royalty DUKE and I like this one a lot as well. They clarified a lot of questions I had and with a little bit more research it is quite likely that I will make a move and buy some. Unfortunately we timed out for a chat with Ixico IXI but no doubt I will get opportunities in the future to speak to them and there are a couple of other Stocks I am looking at as well. Yet again my discussions at the Show confirm my approach that having a good understanding of a Company you like the look of before and then spending a lot of time with them is a very effective way to operate and a lot more meaningful. Just turning up at the Show and using a scatter-gun approach to chat idly with all the Companies is pretty ineffective and not the best use of time I suggest. I must point out though that the Show was pretty busy and I would say it was the busiest one in all the years I have been attending it (probably about 8 years or so) and this might be a sign that we are approaching that peak in the Bull Market that we all fear. A few mates and myself always joke that large attendances at these Shows is bad news and when they are really quiet you know it is a good time to buy Stocks !! It was a good Event though and the feedback I heard was very positive and the people at Shares looked after me well with the arrangements for parking and stuff – it is just a shame that the BDC employs ex-Gestapo for security !! WheelieBash2020 When my good mate Aston Girl @Reb40 joined me and a couple of other buddies in the Pub for my birthday recently, we discussed a possible WheelieBash date for 2020 and I can now confirm after chatting to her earlier today, that the Bash will be on Saturday 5th September. So shove that date in your diary and I will give more details much nearer the time but as usual it will be FREE to attend and you just need to get your butt down to Windsor and it will most likely be at The White Hart in Winkfield which is where we normally hold it. Everyone is invited but I think we are limited to 60 spaces so first come first served and all that. If you go to the ‘Events’ page on the website you should find piccies of previous WheelieBashes. I have discovered ‘Open DMs’ on my Twitter Settings and have now turned that on so anybody can Direct Message me even if I am not following you – so feel free to get in touch and let me know you want to come to the Bash. You can email me also on [email protected] Last Week At the Close on Thursday it was looking a bit iffy for the week (nothing dramatic, just that I was down a little for the week) but then we had a decent Friday and my Portfolio managed to add 0.5%, so my decent run up to now in 2020 continues and I am pretty happy. As has been the case for some time the Markets seem quite toppy especially in the US and I see the DAX has broken-out to new All Time Highs as well. The FTSE100 has been lagging but the distorting effects of the big Oil Stocks and the gyrations in the Pound explain a lot of it. I am sure that in time if the other Indexes keep going up then the FTSE100 will join them. If you look at my ‘Trades’ page you should see that I dumped the holding I had in Galliford Try GFRD because I am not particularly interested in it and I can’t see myself buying more so it is a waste of time and resources holding it now that the Houses bit has been flogged to Vistry VTY (was Bovis BVS). This frees up a Slot in the WD40 but there wasn’t much Cash in it although I also sold a chunk of Tristel TSTL after a strong run up recently and I am therefore sat on a little bit of Cash – enough to buy another Stock if I see something I want at the right time. As I mentioned earlier I fancy more WATR and I am keen on DUKE but there are two others that Simon Thompson put in his ‘Bargain Shares’ that look very interesting – Xaar XAR and Brand Architekts BAR – I might nibble at these soon, and they remind me very much of Mpac MPAC before the market woke up to the Recovery. Other than that I am not expecting to do much in coming weeks; I am watching out for a requirement to Short an Index if a fall looks likely but at the moment I have a small Long on the S&P500 (see the ‘Trades’ page) and that has been going nicely. We had a wobble on Friday but it won’t surprise me if the bullishness continues for a bit but maybe in March/April we will get a bit more of a drop. It would be healthy though because the Market really has been a bit too enthusiastic. Twin Petes Investing Podcast The latest Podcast, number 16, has been by far our most successful to date and the responses on Twitter have been mind-blowing. Thank you bigly for all your support and we intend to soon get in the Recording Studio again to lay down some more of our sweet music !! If you have not heard TPI 16 yet you can find it at the link below. We have some exciting things happening around the Podcast in the next few weeks and we are both working hard on it so keep your eyes peeled for any news…….. You can find it here on Soundcloud and if you use Apple and/or Audioboom you can find it under the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-coronavirus-impact-on-markets-tstl-mpac-song-futr-sdi-ixico UK Investor Show **IT LOOKS LIKE I WILL NOT ATTEND THIS SHOW ALTHOUGH I HAVE YET TO CONFIRM THE ALTERNATIVE SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT I MIGHT HAVE. I WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT MASTER INVESTOR THOUGH** There are 2 big Shows that I have been to in past years which of course are Master Investor in Islington and this one that is usually in Westminster. It takes place on Saturday 25th April 2020 but at the moment I am not thinking of going to it but I thought Readers might be tempted. Anyway, you can find out details here: https://www.ukinvestorshow.com/ If you do want to go, then do a search for ‘Discount Codes’ or shout on Twitter or something and usually a FREE ticket can be tracked down. Master Investor Show Islington This is taking place on Saturday 28th March 2020 and is held at the Business Design Centre (BDC) in Islington which is in that London. I have probably been to this for most years over the last couple of decades and it can be worthwhile both for the Speakers and the chance to meet up with other Investors, although the Companies tend to be dominated by Oil & Gas and Resources AIM stuff which is certainly not my Cup of Darjeeling. Having said that, there are usually a handful of proper Companies and at least the limited choice makes it easy deciding which Stands to visit !! The Admission Fees are pretty cheap but if you use Discount Code BFMI you can probably get a FREE ticket: https://investoraccess.masterinvestor.co.uk/events/master-investor-show-2020/ I have booked my ticket and no doubt I will be mostly hanging around the Canteen area on the top floor. There is a Restaurant of some sort next door and usually we pop in there later. Nearer the time I will tweet my plans and whereabouts out most likely. Blog Slate As I mentioned in the Podcast bit I am working on a ‘Special Project’ at the moment and it is taking a fair bit of time so I am struggling to write much blog text. I will see how things go but I hope to get something out this coming week although sadly the one I want to write about Hipgnosis Songs Fund SONG will be delayed and I would like to write about WATR and DUKE at some point. Due to the time pressure I might write a quick & easy one that I have in mind for this week if I can manage it. Fortunately at this time of year I tend not to be too busy socially although in the coming week I will be out most of the day on Thursday because I am getting the MX5 shipped up to High Wycombe (i.e. my mate is driving it up and I will drive him back home) to have the hand controls fitted and that should mean I will finally be able to drive the blessed thing in about 3 weeks time after the hand control people get it. Last week I caused a bit of a Tweetstorm with some controversial stuff I said about Rampers and stuff and the blog that went out last week called ‘Teamwork’ was very much related to this idea. Newbies especially need to read this and you can find it on the ‘Educational Blogs’ page on WD1. While I think of it, there is a technical issue with the dropdown menu button when you access WD1 via a Mobile Fone or Tablet and I am not sure what is causing it. I have been distracted so not contacted Weebly yet to see if they can fix it but in the meantime I have put a ‘workaround’ button on the Homepage and if you click that you will find the dropdown menu on that page works. It is all fine on a laptop. Weird. From deep down near the Centre of the Earth I talk a lot on the Tweets about various Technical Analysis techniques (don’t worry, I just stick to a few simple ones) and I am pretty sure a significant majority of people who follow me have utterly no idea what I am gibbering on about. However, I totally contend that Long Term Investors who can master just a few simple TA methods can help themselves with timing on Buys and Sells and all that. To that end, here is a Blog I wrote back in April 2015 which talks about ‘Bull Flags’ and gives a few real-world examples: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/waving-the-bull-flag-with-special-guests-dtg-and-emr As ever, if you go to the ‘Blog Index List’ which sits on WD2, then you can see the full list of Blogs I have scribbled over many years now. Speaking of Charting techniques…….. S&P500 As always the Charts I show are screen-grabs from the sublime SharePad software that I subscribe to. If you click on the images they should grow bigger although I am having technical issues with these images recently and I need to contact Weebly about that as well because I’m baffled as to why it is suddenly not working like it used to. ‘Best practice’ when it comes to Chart-discerning is to start with longer timeframes and then to drill inwards. On that basis, the Chart below shows the Weekly Candlesticks for the S&P500 and my Blue Arrow is pointing at a Big White Up Candle and there is no other way to interpret this than as being Bullish. It made a new All Time High (ATH) as well.
I’m going to be a bit naughty on the Chart below and show the Monthly Candles for the S&P500 before they are really valid with a Full Month Candle for February. From looking at the Weekly it was obvious to me that the Bearish looking ‘Shooting Star’ from January had been got over and this suggests that the Bearish Signal has not been ‘confirmed’ (for a ‘textbook’ technical setup you would need the Candle for February to Open pretty much where the Candle for January Closed and then to just fall away) and the Bulls are solidly in charge. OK, we need a full Candle but for the reasons I have just typed it looks like Bears will be disappointed (and poor !!).
In the bottom window on the Screen below we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the S&P500 Daily. Where my Black Arrow is we are on a Reading of RSI 67 and this is high although not quite extreme. As you can probably see the S&P500 has been up to RSI 80 or so a few times of late.
Such a level as RSI 67 shows we are pretty high but it would not take much to enable things to ‘calm down’ a bit. An ‘Overbought’ level can unwind by either Price or by Time. By Price it means a sharp or gently drop and that brings the RSI back into line with something more realistic and by Time it means it just grinds sideways a while (Consolidates) and that takes out the over-exuberance so it can climb higher again.
Now the Indicator I am starting to love more than any other. The Chart below has the Daily Candles for the S&P500 but I am not really looking at those here. What I am looking at is the Crossovers between the Black 13 Day EMA Line (Exponential Moving Average) and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. Where my Blue Arrow is we had a Bull Cross (look at how many Points of Profit you could have made going Long on that Signal !!!) and where my Black Ellipse is I am trying to show how the recent dip was an attempt to trigger a Bear Cross (like where the Black Arrow is to the far left) but the Bulls drove it up again and we ‘skimmed off’. As things stand this Indicator is saying that I should stay Long on my Trade.
Lastly for the S&P500 we have the Daily Candles and the Pink Zone marks the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Doji Candle from Friday and really the last 4 Days have been Dojis and just chopping about and note the Candles have moved sideways away from the Upper Bollinger Band. This looks like a typical Consolidation move to me and as yet not much to worry about.
From a quick look the Nasdaq Comp and the DOW are pretty much the same as the S&P500.
DAX (Germany) Something highly significant happened on the DAX last week and I will just quickly show it. The Chart below has the Weekly Candles for the DAX and my Red Ellipse is capturing a Big White Up Candle which is Bullish but more crucially, it is above the Previous All Time High (ATH) which was where my Blue Arrow is. Super Bullish behaviour.
FTSE100
First up we have the Weekly Candles for the FTSE100 and where my Blue Arrow is pointing we had a Down Candle last week and note how it fell away from the High of the Week at about 7550 – so that is now key Resistance to get above. With the Price dropping away last week it looks more Bearish than anything else but to an extent we are really just going sideways. If you look at the Pound vs Dollar (I have not included that Chart) then you will see that has been largely sideways as well – so that link makes some sense. My Big Black Box is highlighting Support down below and in the Big Picture we seem to be in a Range between 7000 at the bottom and 7730 at the top where my Black Arrow is.
You should have figured out by now that I adore like crazy the Signals we get from the 13/21 Day EMA Crosses but where they are not so great is on a choppy sideways Market which sums up the FTSE100 at the moment. Anyway, for what it’s worth, on the Screen below where my Red Arrow is we had a Bear Cross which is when the Black 13 Day EMA crossed the Red 21 Day EMA from above.
And finally we have the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 with the Pink Zone highlighting the Bollinger Bands. Where my Blue Arrow is we had a Big Black Down Candle on Friday and this looks a bit Bearish.
If you find all this Charting stuff I write of interest then you might not have spotted that on most Week Nights I tend to send out a string of Tweets at about 10.30pm which cover what I am seeing on loads of Indexes. You can open a Twitter Account for FREE but if you don’t have or want an Account, then you can find a few instances of my Twitter Feed on the pages of my Websites. Right, that’s a wrap (bit like my fingers !!). Good luck for the coming week, WD.
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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