You may remember from Last Weekend’s Blog that I was due to finally collect my New Seat Leon Cupra 300 (or not ‘300’ as it happens) last Monday 12th November, and that I was going to drive a Mate down in my ‘Old’ Leon FR and he was going to drive the Cupra from Tunbridge Wells to High Wycombe because it had been fitted with ‘Basic’ Hand Controls and needed to have the Hand Controls I want fitted.
Anyway, we set off and the weather was nice and we had a pretty good drive from Windsor down to Tunbridge Wells and then we were literally Half a Mile from the Seat Dealer when we stopped at Asda to grab some Sandwiches for Lunch. Anyway, after this my ‘Old’ Leon decided that the Hand Controls on it would go wrong (amazing timing after 11 Years) but fortunately my Mate could drive it so there was a huge and scary Change of Plan whereby he would drive the Old one and I had to drive the New Cupra.
Of course there is a big flaw in this Cunning Plan and it was a nightmare. I have not driven with this type of Hand Control system for nearly 20 Years and when I did it was only for a maximum of 30 minutes and it was in an ancient Vauxhall Corsa 1.0Litre - so it was rather different to driving the Cupra. I also came to the conclusion very quickly that these Hand Controls were unsuitable for me and to be honest they are downright dangerous. It mystifies me how so many People use them.
It was horrible. I got so stressed because I realised that it would be difficult and of course I was very worried that I would smack the Car up or something. To add to my angst, there was a fair bit of delay getting the Paperwork completed and stuff and we ended up setting off for High Wycombe much later than I desired - although the Hand Control People there had told me that if they had gone then I should just leave the Car in their Car Park and chuck the Keys through the Letterbox (needless to say it was a bit scary the next day because I had visions of phoning them up only for them to say “We thought you were going to deliver the Cupra to us…….” - thankfully, they got it !!). Of course the other issue was that I had never even seen a Grey Cupra before and fortunately it does look really tasty - it has huge Wheels and some cool looking Red Brake Calipers with ‘Cupra’ written on them in White which works very nicely - apparently the Cupras that are produced from now on will have Black Brake Calipers and I doubt that will look as decent. There were some issues about the ‘300’ aspect because it turns out mine is a ‘290’ (there is a Badge on the back) - of course I spotted this straightaway and I was a bit perturbed but because I was so stressed about having to drive the damn thing, I didn’t really flinch when the Salesman said the Power had been reduced due to the new EU Emissions Laws (thanks EU, that is the second time you have stitched me up this year !!). It is a bit frustrating but once I got home and looked into the situation it turns out that in 2017 the Cupra had 290BHP and then in 2018 it had 300BHP but after these EU Rule Changes the 2019 is 290BHP - and mine is actually a 2019 Model. The other funny thing is that Red Brake Callipers are from a 2018 so mine is rather a ‘Bitsa’ (Bitsa this, and Bitsa that). Hopefully I won’t notice the ‘reduction’ in power…… So I finally get into the Car and the Salesman is trying to explain all the Controls and stuff and I quite frankly didn’t hear one word - I was just totally freaked out and staring at the Hand Controls thinking, “How the F**k am I going to drive this to High Wycombe?”. Another thing that spooked me was that everything on the Car is Automatic and it has an Electronic Parking Brake which of course I have never driven with before - so that was a bit unpleasant !! The Salesman finally leaves me to it and my Mate jumps into the Passenger Seat and I tell him I will drive the 20 yards to my Old Leon just to show I am safe and happy to drive the Cupra - and of course I then manage to stall the Car !! This adds to my stress and I just tell my Mate that I am going and he must catch me up (this was obviously not too difficult because I could see no way in which I could turn Left or Right but I would be very good at going in a Straight Line !!) and I manage to squeeze out into the Traffic only to Stall yet again. After Stalling for a 3rd time I realise that it has ‘Start/Stop’ and of course this is yet another thing to feed my fear. I manage to negotiate a few Roundabouts (at about 3mph) and get out of Tunbridge Wells but once I get to the Dual Carriageway I pull over to let my Mate catch up and I sort of caught my breath a bit. We then set off again and I go about 10 miles but it is amazingly exhausting - and that is from pure stress. We needed Petrol so I pulled in at the Services but in truth it was more about letting me have a break for a few Minutes in order to calm down. After this things got a lot better and we had a pretty good drive up to the M25 and on round and I sort of started to get more confident and at one point I actually managed to push on the Throttle a bit and get a sense of the Power but to be honest I didn’t really get much idea of what it can do. I thought the Brakes were pretty good and the ride was really smooth and quiet and far less ‘Choppy’ than my Old Leon which just crashes and bumps over holes in the Road and stuff. Those Hand Controls were terrible though - I had a Bottle of Water on the Passenger Seat and whenever I tried to pick it up for a swig, I was wondering who was actually holding the Steering Wheel (the way these Hand Controls work my Right Hand is palming the Wheel really but I had no grip on it at all). At some point I managed to turn on the Screen thing and I spotted that it was doing 40mpg which probably isn’t bad because although I was not driving fast, I was most clearly driving in a very uneconomical manner. As a comparison, my Old Leon which was following did 37mpg on the same trip - so my hunch that it might be a little better on Fuel looks to be correct. Less weight and a more efficient Engine are probably the reason despite the big hike in Power (come on, you gotta admire the way I am trying to justify splashing out on a New Car with nearly 50% more Horse Power on the basis of Fuel Economy !! Next thing I will be claiming the Low Emissions are saving the Planet !!). So it all went well until we get to High Wycombe and that was really nasty - we had to go right through the middle and then out into the Country Roads which are quite twisty and stuff and of course with those Hand Controls turning was not a strong point. Add in the ‘Stop/Start’ seeming to turn the Car off just when I wanted to shoot out at a Mini Roundabout etc., and I was hugely relieved to pull up outside the Mobility People. When my Mate said “Back it in there and I’ll get your Wheelchair” my response was “You must be F***ing joking mate, there is no way I am reversing this thing ever !!”. Anyway, we got there in the end and I am pretty happy with the Car despite my First Drive not being quite as I would have liked. It also turns out that I got the Car for less than I expected as the Colour I have got (Magnetic Grey) is not an Option which the previous Grey (Monsoon Metallic Grey) was - so this saved me £550 which was a result. I am a bit confused by the Invoice and stuff but it looks like the Base Car is a bit cheaper as well. I should get the Car properly in a few Weeks and I am pretty excited about that prospect now - especially because my Old Leon is now useless to me but I have a Mate lined up who is going to have it. Obviously I am very pleased to have my ‘Spare’ Car in the form of the Z3. Twin Petes Investing (TPI) As you know I have been talking for Months about doing a Podcast thing and I have hinted many times that progress was being made but my recent Hip problems added to the delays. Anyway, if you follow me on Twitter you might have noticed that I am doing a Collaboration with @Conkers3 whereby we intend to create Ad Hoc Podcasts when we get the urge and have the time and we have set up an Account on SoundCloud where the Podcasts will sit. We recorded our First one on Friday and this is now Live and you can listen to it here: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/wheeliedealer-and-conkers3-talk-markets-winning-investing-strategies-and-stop-losses Our ‘plan’ is to cover stuff of interest and relevance around the Markets and Stocks in general and to discuss various aspects of Investing like we have done in the First one where we cover things like Compound Interest, Patience, Holding Quality Stocks for the Long Term and the thorny subject of Stoplosses. The format will be informal and relaxed and we want it to be like 2 Mates down the Pub having a chat about Stocks etc. Chances are we will have Guests on at times and we are bound to play around with the format and stuff over time. If you go to my WD2 Website, then there is a Page entitled ‘Podcasts / Videos’ and the stuff we record will always have a Link here so Readers can find it easily. If you go to the Homepage of the Main Website then there is a Button marked ‘Pod casts / Videos’ which will take you to the Page. There is also a SoundCloud App thing which you can download and it is FREE which tends to have its attractions. We hope you enjoy it !! PS. Big Thanks to @InvestingMartin for his invaluable help in creating Logos for TPI and his ongoing Technical Support !! Last Week Well we all know it was a ‘challenging’ Week with all the silliness around Brexit and T May proving just how totally useless she is. As I type this on Sunday Night it seems like the 48 Letters are not in yet to trigger a Tory MP’s Confidence Vote in T May but it won’t be a shock if the 48 Letters do go in early this coming Week. With such a backdrop it is obvious the Markets will be jittery and I talked with @Conkers3 a lot about this on the TPI Podcast. The upshot is that my Strategy is continuing of not doing much at the moment to my Portfolio and just biding my time. I have a Short Position running on the S&P500 and no doubt I will talk about that more when I do the Index Charts in a bit. My Portfolio was down 2.3% Last Week which is quite a bit of damage - 2018 has been a right pig so far and I can’t see it getting hugely better and the dragging Markets could carry on into 2019 - it is so hard to know and the Political Mess could turn out one of many ways. With such Uncertainty I see no need to do anything rash and I am quite happy to plod along as I have been doing and waiting for Better Times ahead. Of course a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is a possibility but I still think that is unlikely because despite all the posturing by MPs on both the UK and EU Sides, it is in nobody’s interest to let this happen and Politicians care about their own Jobs (and Pensions !!) far more than anything else. If they let ‘No Deal’ happen and the Economy goes down the toilet then it is going to be difficult for them to get re-elected. Something that is getting more comment is the state of the Global Economy - it does seem that things are getting a bit slower in many Regions. The US is clearly strong and there are no outstanding signs of slowing but Europe is definitely on the slide and the UK is without doubt on borrowed time and if the Brexit Mess carries on in its current vein then it will hit Confidence of both Business and Consumers more and that has to drag on the UK Economy. On the flipside, Oil Prices have come off a lot and that is a positive for the Global Economy. If you look at my ‘Trades’ Page I did some Housekeeping type stuff Last Week and I sold out of my Janus Henderson Technology Unit Trust and I bought some Polar Capital Technology Trust PCT in my ISA - this was really to free up Cash outside the ISA and now all my Shares stuff is nicely encapsulated in an ISA Wrapper of some sort. This was a similar move to what I did with my Health Funds recently. Blog Archive Links I think it was Last Weekend where I mentioned my desire to get Links on all the Old Educational Blogs in the Archive and I was anticipating it would take several Weeks to do this - but as it happens I got a bit carried away with it Last Week and I have managed to do the whole lot. So if you go to the Page on WD2 marked ‘Blog Index List’ you will find the Full List of all Blogs that I have ever written (and many by Guest Bloggers) and now you will find Links on the useful ones so you can easily find them. You can also access the ‘Blog Index List’ via a Button at the top of the Homepage on the Main Site. Forthcoming Attractions Last Week I recorded another Podcast with Justin and you can find this on the Podcasts/Videos Page and I issued a Book Review on a ‘Non-Finance’ Book which I found really excellent - it is quite a long Review but you might find it an entertaining read anyway. Last Night I made more progress on the Blogs about ‘Moving into Cash’ but this still needs a lot of work to get it completed. I have a couple of other Blogs in Draft form and I intend to issue one of those later this Week. Blast from the Past To give you a flavour of what is in the Blog Archive, have a look at this one from a couple of Years ago: http://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/the-appeal-of-long-term-investing OK, that’s enough ‘Admin’, let’s see if the Charts give any clues with regards to what the hell is going on…… S&P500 As ever the Charts I show are grabbed from SharePad (note I don’t go near ShareScope these days now that I have figured out SharePad and have got it to be pretty much a copy of how I had ShareScope set up) and if you click on them they should get bigger so you can see some detail if you need to. First off there is something I want to show on the Big Picture - this Chart goes back to 2009 and my Black Arrow is pointing to a Bottom Line which was part of the Uptrend Channel since the 2009 Lows that has been running pretty much intact until just recently. Where my Red Arrow is note how the Price fell down through the Bottom Support Line of the Uptrend Channel and then it bounced up but stopped up where Resistance is which is shown by my Blue Ellipse (yep, you are right, I still can’t figure out how to draw any other useful Shapes !!) and then the Price fell down again. Note also that the Price Bounced and then hit Resistance around the 200 Day Moving Average Line (the Lighter Blue Wavy Line) and the 50 Day Moving Average Line (the Darker Blue Wavy Line). My fear now is that these Moving Averages are capping any gains and that Black Bottom Line of the Uptrend Channel seems to be limiting Upside as well. Please ignore the other lines - this is my ‘Working’ Screen.
This next Chart is a bit busy but it shows the Daily Candlesticks on the S&P500 and it should help understanding of the Previous Chart because that Ellipse is the same and the Black Arrow is pointing to the Bottom Black Uptrend Channel Line. Note how the Darker Blue 50 Day Moving Average Line is dropping down towards the Lighter Blue 200 Day MA Line and there is a high likelihood we will get a ‘Death Cross’ which would imply Weeks and Months of weakness ahead.
My Blue Arrow is pointing to some of the Opening Levels of the Shorts I put on the S&P500 (if you go to my ‘Trades’ Page on the Main Website you should be able to read about all these Trades) and my Pink Arrow is pointing to the Pink Line where my Stoploss Level is placed. My Green Arrow is pointing to a Small Up Candle from Friday and this could imply that the Index wants to turn up because this Candle sort of ‘Confirms’ what looks like a ‘Bullish Piercing Lines’ 2 Day Candle Pattern from Wednesday and Thursday - however, the Price clearly struggled at about 2745 and up above this there is a fair bit of Resistance and in particular up at about 2815. My Stoploss is up at 2825 and with all the negativity around I am happy to let the Trades run a bit and if we do get a big move up, then my Stoploss should save me from any big pain I would suffer on the Shorts.
This next Chart has probably my Favourite Indicator thing and where my Black Arrow is we had a Bearish Cross between the 13 Day Exponential Moving Average and the 21 Day EMA - at the moment this is still ‘in force’ and I take the view that there is no point starting to get all Bullish until we get a Bullish Cross on these EMA Lines. When I am doing Long or Short Index Trades these Days, I am taking a lot of notice of what these EMAs are saying - if they are Bullish then I want to be going Long and it they are Bearish then I want to be Short (it would be a mistake to trade in the opposite direction to what these EMA Lines are saying).
On the Screen below we have the Daily Price Candles for the S&P500 and around these the Pink Zone marks the Bollinger Bands. My Arrow is showing how the Candles seem to be moving up off the Bottom Band.
Next we have the Weekly Candles on the S&P500. My Red Arrow is pointing to the Candle from 3 Weeks ago which seemed to mark a Reversal Upwards and then we rose 2 Weeks ago but Last Week we got the Black Arrow with the Long Tail marked by my Blue Arrow. This one is not easy to interpret - in many ways it is an ‘Inside’ Candle with the Black Body being within the Range of the White Body on the Candle of 2 Weeks ago. This means we need another Candle to really get a sense of the Direction.
I won’t show them for time reasons but the DOW and the Nasdaq Comp are very similar to the S&P500 and perhaps the most worrying aspect is that the Nasdaq Comp is very near a 50/200 Day MA ‘Death Cross’.
FTSE100 First off the Big Picture - ignore most of the stuff I have put on this Chart, but please focus on the Uptrend Channel which has been running since the 2009 Lows and my Red Arrow is pointing to the Bottom Line of the Uptrend Channel and this implies pretty good Support down at about 6500 if we do get further pain ahead.
I’ll zoom in more in a bit, but on this one we have my Blue Arrow pointing to a 50/200 Day MA ‘Death Cross’ which is Bad News and implies Weeks and Months of difficult times for the FTSE100 ahead and at the Bottom Right we have my Arrows marking a Sideways Range which seems to be in force at the moment between 7200 at the Top and 6850 ish at the Bottom.
Here the Range is easier to see. My Black Ellipse thing is capturing the Candle from Friday and really this is a ‘Long Tails Doji’ which is similar to the 3 Days before and just shows a boat-load of Uncertainty and Chopping about.
The FTSE100 is actually quite easy now. If the Price falls down below 6850 then expect more Falls and if it goes up above 7200, then expect more Gains. In other words, how the Sideways Range breaks will give us the direction from there onwards. I think I talked about exactly this on the Podcasts so you can see it graphically here.
On this one please ignore everything else but the Red Arrow is pointing to where we had a 13/21 Day EMA Bearish Cross and this is still ‘in force’.
Here are the Weekly Candles - to be honest it is not telling us much but with my Arrow pointing to the Black Down Candle from Last Week after the Narrow Body Candle from the Week Before, this is probably more Bearish than Bullish. It’s all about that Sideways Range really.
FTSE250
I’m gonna end this in a minute, but I just wanted to chuck the FTSE250 Weekly Candles in. This is very similar to the FTSE100 and the Sideways Range is clearly visible and my Arrow is pointing to a Big Down Candle from Last Week - this is clearly Bearish but again we need to let the Range play out. OK, that’s it, I hope you have a Good Week and make sure you listen to the New Podcast thing we did, Cheers, WD.
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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