I am starting this on Saturday Night again and trying to watch the Formula 1 Qualifying at the same time !! It is so nice to have a nearly decent sport back on the tellybox again, and I guess it could be viewed as another slug-like slow step to semi-normality. Hopefully my health aggro will not prevent me cracking on with this and as I start I am feeling quite good and perhaps I will be able to get a lot done before having to abandon it.
“A work of art is never finished, it is just abandoned…….” The title this weekend relates to something I want to highlight when we get to the Charts bit, which is essentially how an extended RSI reading (Relative Strength Index) to the upside (pretty much without exception), predicts a falling Price not long afterwards. We have been treated to 2 excellent examples of this just recently and I will show both of them.
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Unusually I am starting this on Friday night because I have some other plans for Sunday; but unfortunately my ongoing health lament is really playing up today and I am right grumpy. On that particular issuette, I spoke to a Consultant at Stoke Mandeville Hospital earlier in the week, and it looks like I will at some point get an MRI Scan and most likely other stuff like X-Ray and Ultrasound, but the catch is that it could be as much as 3 months away.
I have mixed feelings about this. Clearly the NHS is absolutely jammed solid with a huge backlog of work and it is also still fighting the C19 disaster, so I can see why there is a long queue. This suits me in that I am not overly keen to go near a Hospital (which seems to be a major hot spot of C19 infection), even though I have had my first vaccination stab and my Consultant would prefer me to have the second prick before I go in. The vaccines do not prevent you getting C19, although it probably means you won’t expire – but with my useless lungs I don’t fancy getting it at all.
A pretty good week as it happens, with Stocks doing nicely and I saw some excellent gains being reported on Twitter so the change of mood we had at the end of February seems to have been shaken off already. Of course the Nasdaq is behind a bit and the fabled ‘Rotation’ away from Growth to Value does seem to be taking place. Having said that it could easily be described more simply as a shift from Tech to Cyclicals. It is notable that we seem to have wobbled a bit as we got to both the end of January and the end of February.
There is no doubt plenty of sense in the Tech stuff getting more scrutiny because Valuations have been getting quite mad in a lot of cases; but I can’t help thinking that some Cyclicals are already looking pretty hot. One that has surprised me is On The Beach OTB, which I hold, which has now got higher than it was before the March 2020 collapse and that is quite amazing when you think how many challenges the Holiday Sector faces.
In keeping with my newly found tradition of starting these Blogs on Saturday Night, and then completing them on Sunday; I am about to crack on with this with a belly full of ‘Masterchef’ Chinese Takeaway (delivered obviously) and I have no doubt that many Readers in their Lockdown Lives will recognise the pattern of desperately trying to find something reasonably pleasant amongst our deserts of tedium !!
Of course I have shoved far too many plate fulls down my gullet (why does this happen? Normally my meals are just one plate, yet when any sort of takeaway or delivered food is involved, it becomes totally standard to eat crazy amounts – despite my intention being to save plenty for coming meals over the weekend), so this could be quite an uncomfortable spell of writing for me !!
I am starting this on Saturday Night and earlier today I went out for nearly 2 hours for a long roll down to Windsor Marina to take advantage of the much improved weather. It is so long since I had any kind of exercise and Lockdown seems to essentially revolve around eating (if I am not thinking about what I will eat or drink next, I am actually consuming something) and it struck me that my cardiovascular system really is crying out for a bit of use.
On the way back I bumped into Ewan Hughes (@EwanHughes7) who lives just around the corner from me and he came to the WheelieBash last summer, and it was excellent to see him again and to catch up on his latest Trading/Investing exploits. I was particularly pleased when he told me he had been out earlier and was walking around Eton and listening to our latest Podcast TPI 43, which he was streaming from Spotify using 4g. My goodness this modern tech stuff is pretty amazing.
I had a mixed week with my Portfolio just scraping through with a tiny hit and with a visit to my Doctor back on Monday which involved some good news really, but also a bit of not-so-good news.
Prior to the visit to the Surgery (first time since the C19 shenanigans and it was a bit strange with all the PPE requirements and all that), I had a District Nurse come round and take some blood samples; so it was great to hear that they found nothing in the blood and it looks like I might have a few years left in me yet (just as well because the Blog backlog is insane).
I’ve been reading a lot and hearing a lot about how we could be about to enter into a massive Economic Boom, in the style of the ‘Roaring 20s’ which was the period running up to the Wall Street Crash in 1929 and when everything went a bit crazy after World War 1 and the Spanish Flu etc.
It is quite an attractive story and it would be very nice if it comes true, but as with anything I hear regarding Investment and the Economy, I always ask myself “Is this true? Is this likely to happen?” etc. In essence, when it comes to your money you must believe nothing and question everything.
Needless to say (but I will anyway), with all this Lockdown Life going on, I am watching far too much telly and I’m certainly not getting out much (I never do in the Winter anyway, but that’s not the point). But all this tellybox watching is not totally wasted because I heard some funny stuff as a consequence. Firstly, it was Johnny Vegas on ‘QI’ the other night going on about “DIY Gaviscon” which was a cocktail of half a pint of Baileys mixed with half a pint of Cointreau. The logic was that you could drink this during a heavy session, so that you could then keep going on the lagers…….
The other gem I heard was from one of the Founders of PayPal – I think his name was Hoffman and I caught him on CNBC or something and he said how starting a new business “…is like jumping off a cliff and assembling an airplane on the way down”. I did giggle at that.
Here I am on Saturday night working on this blog and seeing as it is my birthday, it is not really how I would have liked to pass the hours. But in Lockdown Windsor on a miserable wet evening, this is pretty much as exciting as it gets……..
Obviously I don’t want to spend ages on this and I am really eager to get looking at the Charts because the Markets were pretty truculent last week and I want to get a good sense of where we are most likely to go next. I put some Shorts on the FTSE100 to hedge my Portfolio at the end of the week and hopefully this puts me in a good position to ride out any more rocky waters (see my ‘Trades’ page on WD1 for the details).
From what I can tell those words are the title of an album by Lewis Capaldi and it did make me smile (to be fair, he probably didn’t mention BGO). I heard it during an interview with Ken Bruce on Radio 2 the other day and although I am no fan of his ‘work’, I must say Lewis was a great interviewee and has a charming self-deprecating manner.
I am so pleased to be about 95% ‘fixed’ now and incredibly the root of my difficulties seems to have been because a Doctor had told me to take Senna Tablets (nothing to do with Ayrton Senna but they do make you go fast !!) which are clearly quite a powerful laxative. I always assumed they were pretty mild because they are just chopped up and dried plant stuff, but I learnt the hard way that they are seen as quite ‘aggressive’ by the Health people. |
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