When I type up the Drafts for my Blogs I always put a Date at the top (I’m not totally sure why !!!) but having just typed the Date in I am shocked how far into 2018 we are - there are very few Weeks and Days left now before we hit 2019 - it’s really nuts.
It’s a Big Day for me tomorrow (hopefully !!) - if all goes to plan I am off down to Tunbridge Wells with my mate to pick up my New Seat Leon Cupra 300 DSG - but unfortunately we are only taking it then to High Wycombe where it is going to have the ‘proper’ Hand Controls fitted so that I can happily drive it. It’s been a total fiasco in terms of Admin and Logistics and the long and short of it is that to satisfy the Government’s Rules on me being able to get the VAT off the Price of the Car (I think it is worth around £4500 to me), the Garage has to supply it with Hand Controls already fitted so everything is on one Invoice.
The problems started because the Garage do not have a relationship with the Hand Control Specialists in High Wycombe and it has meant that some ‘inferior’ Hand Controls that are costing me £600 have been fitted to the Car so that everyone is happy. It is infuriating but I have no other way of getting around the problem (believe me I have exhausted every possibility !!) and on the positive side the Controls that are on the Leon Cupra now are actually supplied by the People in High Wycombe so not all of the equipment is going to be thrown away. I look at it that I have had to ‘invest’ £600 to gain £4500 which is obviously worth doing. It is just a shame that we could not have stuck a ‘Knob’ on the Steering Wheel to satisfy the need to class it as ‘Adapted’ but the Garage were too eager to stick to the Rules - that is fair enough really.
What hasn’t helped is that you might recall there was a recent Scam where Disabled Blokes were buying flash Sportscars like Porsche and Ferrari and stuff and getting the VAT off them and then selling on to someone who really wanted the Car - this was because there was no limit on how many Cars a Disabled Person could buy and as always if there is a way of ‘Gaming the System’ then someone will figure it out. The net result is that the process has been tightened up hugely and a lot more annoying Admin has been generated to try to reduce such problems - along with a Limit on how often you can buy a Car and get the VAT off. I think the VAT is 20% so on a £150,000 Porsche that is quite a big chunk. One amazing thing is that no one buys Cars like this - most Disabled People buy Cars using the Mobility Scheme. This is fine if you want a basic Car and the Deals are really good but one problem is that you can only keep the Car for 3 or 4 Years I think - that just wouldn’t suit me because sorting out this one Car has driven me insane !! If you go for more than just a ‘Basic’ Car you have to pay a chunk of Money upfront that you lose - I can’t see the sense in doing that. Anyway, fingers crossed it will all go OK tomorrow and I can actually get the Car and head off to High Wycombe - the complications are around my Cash getting transferred over from my Bank but I expect that will be OK. While I think of it, one trick I picked up somewhere was that when you are transferring a big wedge of Money over to someone, set up their Account Details and stuff and then send just £1 over with some sort of ‘Code’ that you put as a Reference. Then phone the Intended Recipient up and ask if they got your Money and how much you sent over and what the Reference Code was - this worked well for me. Apparently lots of People are getting scammed this way - Criminal Scumbags hack into your Email Account and they are reading everything you Send and Receive - and they just sit there watching, often for Months and Months. Then, when you are buying something big like a Car or House or something, they pick their moment and then send you an Email which appears to be from the Company or whatever you are dealing with and they of course have false Bank Account details and stuff and they ask you to send the Money over - of course, you don’t realise because they have all the correct Amounts and suchlike. They really are very clever and the differences are very small in terms of their Email Address and suchlike. People have lost huge sums via this type of Scam and the Bank have no liability. Assuming all goes to plan I should finally get the Car myself in about 2 or 3 Weeks (I am pretty relaxed about it as I won’t be driving it much over the Winter anyway) - until then I will have my mate rubbing in how great my New Car is and how much he loved driving it and christening it for me !! Last Week Well everything was sort of plodding along OK until we got to Friday when the Markets just seemed to totally lose the Plot and lots of my Stocks took a real spanking even though there was no News or anything. The upshot of this pathetic end to the Week was that my Portfolio across everything (except my Income Portfolio) was down 0.75% - nothing dramatic but a bit annoying after 4 Days of things looking reasonable. It seems the Markets were relieved by the Outcome of the US Midterm Elections - the Democrats took back control of Congress but Trump increased his Majority in the Senate and this was probably around the Market Expectations but perhaps a bit more positive because Trump arguably did better than these Expectations and the Democrats perhaps did worse. Markets like Trump because he is ‘juicing’ the Markets with lots of Government Spending and Deregulation and if he had lost heavily then there would have been fears that he would only be a ‘One Term President’ - the way things are looking, it is extremely likely that he does 2 Terms. This is fantastic News because it means we get more hilarious Press Conferences like the one he did the other Day - that beats anything the Political Satirists can ever dream up. There is a theory that the Outcome means Trump is strengthened Electorally with regards to the Campaign for his Second Term in 2020. Now that the Democrats are in control of Congress, Trump can now blame them for pretty much anything that goes wrong (and you can bet 100% that he will !!) and if they try too hard to set up Investigations into his Businesses or Conduct then again he can say that the Democrats are not interested in helping the People of the United States and they are just playing Political Games. And of course any efforts to ‘Impeach’ him will get nowhere whilst he controls the Senate and if anything these recent Elections have quietened dissenting Voices within the Republican Party and the ‘Never Trump’ Movement is very subdued now. There is a parallel with Corbyn in the UK where opposition to him from his own Party has reduced considerably once they know he is a ‘Winner’ (hopefully with Corbyn that will certainly not come to pass because the Economic and Social Damage that he would do to our Country would make any negative impacts of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit look like a Pinprick). I will look at the Index Charts later in this Blog but from a High Level it looks to me like the FTSE100 and UK Stocks are in a ‘Holding Pattern’ while we wait for these Brexit Paroxysms to play out - until real actual progress is made with these in terms of firstly a ‘Deal’ with the EU (however awful and ridiculous it is) and then an attempt to get it through the UK Parliament and whatever fiascos come out of that, I suspect we will not really make much headway to the upside but equally we might not get too much downside either. I will show this more in terms of the Charts so you know which Levels to watch out for. The Worst Possible Outcome of Brexit would be a ‘Shock No Deal’ where the Brexit Talks collapse in acrimony and the UK just ‘crashes’ out of the EU on 29th March 2019 - this could be very ugly I think and I would expect Stockmarkets to get seriously butchered. However, I don’t think this will happen and of course there is another far less damaging version of ‘No Deal’ which is where the UK Leaves the EU on ‘No Deal’ Terms but with a 2 Year or so ‘Transition Period’ to get to that End State - this would do very little damage I think because Businesses and Authorities would have time to implement the changes in an organised fashion. Bizarrely there might even be a Rally in Stocks because there would be a huge amount of Relief at the Certainty this would bring. But don’t get me wrong, because of the potential for Economic Damage to both the UK and the EU of a ‘No Deal’ Outcome I do not think this is very likely - in fact, I simply don’t think it will happen. Some sort of Deal will be cobbled together in the next few Weeks and then the focus will go towards Parliament - but at the moment there is a lot of ‘Noise’ about whether or not certain forms of Brexit will get through Parliament but I think the simple reality is that it is all speculation and Political Sparring and nobody really knows how Parliament will Vote - we will need to wait and see what happens. The other complication is that much of a Brexit Fallout reaction by the Markets could be taken by the Pound - either rising on a decent Brexit Outcome or falling if things go horribly wrong (Shock No Deal) and of course this could impact Stockmarkets - but I’m not totally sure how this would play out and I suspect a Good Outcome would mean both the Pound and Stockmarkets rising and a Bad Outcome would mean both falling. It is also worth factoring in that we are in the historically most Bullish part of the Year with Winter usually being far better than Summer - that of course is a very Low Bar in 2018 !!! Of course this means that my Strategy of doing very little will continue until something significant changes and we get certainty on whatever the Brexit Outcome is. I think another Referendum would be a total disaster but of course it is possible if Parliament proves to be utterly useless and to keep this Uncertainly dragging on and to reignite the Divisions that Brexit has caused in the UK would be totally Nuthouse Lunacy of the highest order. I have written loads about Strategy in the last few Days - if you go to the ‘Weekly Performance’ Page on the Website I did a full update for September and October and I put in a lot about Strategy there. In addition, the ‘Educational Blog’ I wrote earlier this Week titled ‘Changing with the Times - 2018 a Year of Amending Style’ was really all about my Strategy that has dominated this Year. Blog Comments Firstly big THANKS for all the Comments that Readers put under my Blogs and the Emails and Tweets and DMs and stuff that I get. Anyway, I mentioned this on Twitter but I wanted to reiterate it because I don’t want you thinking I have gone all rude and up myself. I am not sure why but I cannot respond to your Comments on my Website - my hunch is that it is because I am still using Microsoft XP although it is a bit strange because it used to work fine. I wonder if it is something to do with Kaspersky Internet Security that I use but I looked at the Options on that the other day and there doesn’t seem to be anything obvious. If I find some spare time I will try and resolve it by contacting Weebly Support and see if they have any ideas - it is most strange. I can type responses in but when I go to Post them they just do nothing. Recently I was getting those Puzzle things where you have to click on Telegraph Pole Pictures or something to prove you are not a ‘Bot’ but that is not coming up for me now either. Links I think I might have mentioned this in a Blog but I have certainly mentioned it on the Tweets as well - I have been intending for some time to go through all of the ‘Educational’ Blogs on the ‘Blog Index List’ which sits on the WD2 Website and to set-up Links so that Readers can find Blogs hugely more easier (remember all Educational Blogs sit on the Main WD Website). It takes a fair bit of time but it is repetitive enough that I was able to have a good go at it last Thursday Night and I think it calmed me down whilst watching that appalling Diane Abbott on Question Time so I didn’t throw heavy and sharp objects at my TV (how on earth does she get Elected? Her Voters are clearly not all that bright). I managed to get all of the Blogs from 2015 done and I am thinking that if I can do a Year pretty much every Week for the next few Weeks then I will soon have ‘Linked-up’ the whole Blog Archive. I am not doing the Weekend Market type ones because they are more time-specific and there are the odd few that I am not bothering to Link to because they are not really relevant or whatever, but most Educational Blogs will get Links. You can see what I have done here: http://wheeliedealer2.weebly.com/blog-index-list.html Blog Slate Now I am almost back to ‘Normal’ after the problems with my Hip (believe it or not I am still having to put padding on it every morning which is a flipping nuisance), I have managed to get stuck into producing some Blog Material and getting my Pipeline nice and full again. Last Night I made excellent progress on the Blogs about ‘Moving into Cash’ and I am expecting that this will be issued in a Series of about 3 Blogs fairly soon. It is proving to be quite challenging to write because it is so multi-faceted and I keep thinking up new ‘Angles’ and Considerations that I think need to go in and I am still not happy with how I have structured things. It is getting there but I would like to get the whole thing completely sorted and finished before I start issuing the Parts out - if I issue a Part now before the rest is done I am worried that the ‘Flow’ won’t be all that good and I am sure Readers would prefer me to Publish something that is logical and straightforward to read rather than something that jumps all over the place and doesn’t really make a lot of sense. Luckily I discovered a Blog Draft in my ‘Working’ Word Document that I use for my scribblings that I had forgotten about - it is in good shape so I might issue that this Week. Alternatively I have a Draft of that final Blog about the ‘Stock Buy Checklists’ which I can probably finish off quite quickly if I put my mind to it - so one of these 2 should appear later this Week. There are loads of other things going on in the background so as usual keep your eyes on the ‘Changes List’ on the Homepage because this is where I always highlight what is new or different on the Websites. Memory Lane Now that I have Linked-up probably as many as 100 Blogs from 2015 and the arse-end of 2014 you can skip over to the ‘Blog Index List’ and take your pick of various things whenever you like. However, I am still going to shove a Historical Blog in this Week and here is the one I picked for you !! http://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/how-i-manage-so-many-stocks Right, it’s time for some Charts………. Dow Jones Industrials Index (DOW) As always the Charts I show are from SharePad (note I have pretty much abandoned ShareScope now as SharePad does all I need) and if you click on the images then they should get bigger so you can see any detail a bit better. If you fancy using SharePad yourself there is a Link on the Homepage where you can sign up. The DOW consists of just 30 Megacap Stocks so it is not hugely representative but it is the most widely watched Index globally so that makes it pretty special and significant. My Chart below is a bit of ‘Big Picture’ stuff and goes back to the 2009 Lows and my Black Line with the Arrow is showing the Long Term Support Line and this in effect means that we could have some pretty severe Drops on the DOW and still get away with it as long as the DOW does not fall through this Line - that would be pretty nasty. In essence this means the DOW must stay above 20000 but of course a Drop back down that far would be really painful. Note also how the Lighter Blue Wavy Line that is the 200 Day Moving Average has been good Support for a long time and even occasional dips below this Line have not destroyed the Uptrend.
I have reduced the Timescale on the next Chart and all I am trying to show here is the Black Line at the Top marked by my Black Arrow which is now important Resistance and in essence it means that the DOW needs to get over about 27200 if it is going to keep making new Highs and pushing up. If you look at the 2 Peaks that touch this Line, then they are not that far apart in terms of Levels and it might just well be that between them they form a ‘Bearish Double Top’ - we need to watch out for this possibility (I will show a Chart later with the £/$ which has a Double Top also).
At the Bottom we have my Red Line (Red Arrow) and this could be Support - there are many ‘Touch Points’ which increases confidence that this is Strong Support. This means that 24000 ish is a very important Level and must hold as Support. It seems highly likely that we wiggle around in the Sideways Range between my Red and Black Lines for quite some time.
I have now zoomed in to just a few Weeks and I have used the Ellipse Tool on SharePad to capture the Black Down Candle from Friday and note how this turned down off the Small Doji Candle from Thursday. However, note the Black Candle from Friday has a bit of a ‘Tail’ going downwards and note how it bounced intraday off the 50 Day MA Line which is the Darker Blue Wavy Line pointed at with my Blue Arrow. It is possible that the DOW turns up off this now and it is often the case that ‘Monday reverses Friday’. If this doesn’t happen and we drop back, then there is a lot of Support just below now, particularly at 24125.
Next up my Arrow is pointing at a Bullish Cross between the Black 13 Day EMA Line (Exponential Moving Average) and the Red 21 Day EMA Line - this is usually a very positive development and suggests Gains to come over the next few Days and Weeks.
On my Chart below we have the Weekly Candles for the DOW and my Ellipse (I am sure this can be converted into a Circle but I have no idea how to do it and the Ellipse actually highlights the Candles quite well) is capturing the Big White Up Candle from Last Week and after the Reversal of the Week before this looks promising. One thing to watch out for though is that Last Week’s Candle has a bit of a Small ‘Wick’ at the Top and this shows the Price was struggling to get over roughly 26300 Last Week.
Lastly on the DOW we have the Heiken Ashi Candles (totally different to the Normal Japanese Candlesticks) and my Arrow is pointing to where on Friday we got a Narrow White Candle - this could be hinting that a Turn Down is coming but at this stage it is only a hint and it is possible that it continues up. However, if it now goes Black then expect a turn down.
The Chart below has the Daily Candles for the DOW and the Pink Zone around the Price Line is indicating the Bollinger Bands. Where my Arrow is we have dropped back off the Upper Band so it is possible we can drop back down from here.
The Nasdaq Comp and S&P500 have similarities to the DOW so I am not going to show them. However, on the Nasdaq Comp I notice that this has not done a 13/21 Day EMA Bullish Cross and this shows the Nasdaq is lagging the DOW and not as positive. However, the Weekly has turned up nicely off a Long Tail kind of Hammer Reversal the Week before.
FTSE100 Don’t look too much at the details here - I showed this Chart last Weekend and what I am just trying to show is the Uptrend Channel marked by my Red Lines which has been in force since 2009. In essence as long as we stay above the Bottom Support Line (where my Arrow is) then the Uptrend is still going on. In terms of Levels this means 6400 ish is very important and must hold.
I have now zoomed in a lot to focus on a Sideways Range between about 6860 at the Bottom where my Blue Line is and 7200 at the Top where my Red Line is. My Arrows are showing the Range. This is all very simple now - if the Price falls below the Bottom Blue Line then expect more Falls and that is a good time to Short the FTSE100 and if the Price Breaks Higher through 7200 then expect more Gains and Traders could go Long on the FTSE100.
On a larger timeframe, my Blue Arrow is pointing to a Bearish ‘Death Cross’ between the Dark Blue 50 Day MA and the Lighter Blue 200 Day MA - this shows possible Weakness ahead and I would like to see the 50 Day MA flatten out and start to turn up so we can get the Opposite Cross which would be Bullish - but this could take many Months. We need some serious Bullishness now to make this situation look better. My Green Ellipse is capturing a Black Down Candle from Friday and like the one we saw on the DOW it has a bit of a Tail which shows Intraday recovery.
Now we have the Weekly Candles for the FTSE100. You should be able to see the Sideways Range that I mentioned on the Daily Charts above and my Arrow is pointing to a ‘Long Tails Doji’ or ‘Spinning Top’ Doji from Last Week this suggest the Price is Reversing Down after the move up - this is all consistent with the Range concept I have been on about.
The FTSE250 is pretty much the same so I won’t show it for time reasons.
Pound Vs Dollar I mentioned this on Twitter recently and meant to shove the Picture in Last Weekend but forgot all about it. This is top level stuff and I am just looking at the Big Picture here - I am struggling with the SharePad Shapes and can’t work out how to do a Circle so my Red Ellipses are trying to point out a possible ‘Double Top’ (in this case it is classic ‘Batman Ears’) and my Blue Ellipses are pointing out a possible ‘Double Bottom’. If I am right, then the Double Bottom is Bullish and it means the Pound is going to rise……….(but remember this is Big Picture stuff and it might go Sideways a bit before rising). Those Ellipses remind me of ‘The Saint’……..
Vodafone VOD
Readers will know that I am keen to buy some VOD for my Income Portfolio but as yet I am keeping my Powder as dry as the Atacama Desert and I cannot see any point of Buying what could be a ‘Falling Knife’ and anyone Buying here should not be putting large Amounts in until the Downtrend Channel is broken. My Blue Lines are denoting the Downtrend Channel and until the Price gets above the Upper Blue Line where my Arrow is, there is no point in buying VOD yet. This means a move above 160p would be a very good sign that the Downtrend is over. VOD has Results on Tuesday I think. OK, I will leave it there. Have a great Week everyone !! Cheers, WD.
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