Everybody’s best mate, Donnie Trumpington, has been pushing out the News this Weekend with first the relaxation of restrictions upon Huawei and then the shock visit to North Korea to have a beer with his other strange pal. It’s hard to predict much if any effect on the Markets and perhaps the Huawei News can be seen as a positive in an attempt to patch up relations with China and a step towards sorting a Trade Deal but of course it is early days and we all know how Trumpy has a habit of changing his mind depending on who he last spoke to. The NK News can probably be seen in the same light as a sop towards China and maybe this is a bit positive for Markets but there are plenty of other things that can cause trouble and at this time of year Markets are notoriously moody and we have certainly seen that on Small Cap Stocks this week.
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I had a bit of a result on Friday when a mate who lives in Ascot invited me to join him and his missus and a couple of mutual friends on a trip to the Horseracing gig at the Racecourse. It was particularly sweet because there is this special ‘Resident’s Enclosure’ which people who live in Ascot can use and it is free for them to attend and also for their Guests. On top of that it is sort of in the ‘infield’ bit opposite the main Grandstand so we managed to get right next to the rails and it was quite fun as the Horses thundered past.
They also have plenty of Bookmakers in the Enclosure and of course they did stacks of trade with the locals of Ascot desperate to chuck their money away. Fortunately for me I have never been a Gambler and I would certainly not place money on a nag just because it had a nice name or whatever. Of course lots of people see Stocks as gambling but I just don’t buy that idea because when you buy a Stock you have weighted the odds in your favour by doing lots of research and analysis and of course you have a Portfolio which helps to manage the Risks. It is funny how there is a sort of ‘Urban Myth’ that the Stockmarket is for gamblers when that is clearly not the reality – unless you are punting on binary-bet type AIM Trash.
A chaotic Week for me just gone with a bit of a shock visit to A&E on Monday Night where I stayed from 9pm to 6am only to pretty much find out there is absolutely nothing wrong with me !! This of course screwed up any plans I had for the Week and delayed me producing Part 2 of the HOTC Blogs although there was a slight bit of upside in that it has inspired me to produce a very personal Blog about what happened and it contains important lessons on how our psychology can lead us to make very bad decisions and assumptions and how this is exaggerated by lack of sleep. That Blog is fairly complete and will probably appear this Week – I think Readers will find it quite amusing in parts although at the time I can tell you it was not very funny with me seriously thinking my Heart was knackered !!
Before I get stuck in I must just mention the Meet-up we are doing at Gaydon Motor Museum on Friday 12th July. I have written a bit more further down this Blog but I just want to highlight it because it is a great opportunity for Readers of whatever experience level to come along and meet up with some very experienced and helpful Investors. Newbies are particularly welcome.
My Portfolio had an absolute shocker last week, taking a hit of 3.6% which is very big for the kind of diversified and relatively low risk collection of Stocks I hold. It is typical that this comes just after a very good week and seeing my Portfolio pretty much at its highest level for 2019 so far – how promptly and viciously the Market extracts its revenge.
There were a few culprits with the main ones being a kick from Diversified Gas & Oil Corporation DGOC after a Bear Blog written by lord knows who, and a nasty drop on Somero Enterprises SOM on Friday after a Profit Warning mainly due to heavy rainfall in the US. The other kick came from my Short Positions on the FTSE100 and the S&P500 with the Indexes rising strongly but without a corresponding rise on my Stocks – it’s an unfortunately side of Hedging that the match with my Portfolio will never be perfect. I was also a bit lucky because it could have been even worse – Entertainment One ETO got whacked mid-week because there were fears that Mark Gordon was going to leave the company but fortunately ETO put out a Statement saying that this was not the case. It’s hard to believe my Week could have been worse !!
A really strong gain for my Portfolio last week with it up 1.6% and taking it up to the joint highest level for 2019 so far almost to the precise pound. It’s of course quite a strange situation where my probably a bit too big Index Shorts that I am using to Hedge my Portfolio have really helped in the recent drops, and at the same time my Stocks have not been too battered so overall it is helping me make progress.
It has of course been quite difficult mentally to see everyone on Twitter etc. making such strong gains whilst the Markets rebounded from the 2018 damage and my Portfolio was being dragged back by the Shorts. However it just goes to show that when you have a time-proven Strategy that you know will work (you are just not sure precisely when), you need to stay calm and stick with the plan and don’t get distracted by fears and noise and all the countless demons that play with our emotions. |
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