I got really stressed and frustrated earlier this week because after many weeks of getting by with fairly meagre food reserves (with occasional small top-ups from mates getting me odd bits), things really started to get to the crunch and, quite frankly, I was bored senseless with the lack of nice tucker !!
By pure accident/luck, I had ordered a huge Asda Delivery about a week before things kicked off, and that has done me proud and I am sure I will still have supplies from that in several months’ time. The trouble was that I desperately needed food and having tried to get an Online Slot with Asda and being totally given the brush-off by their, so-called, ‘Customer Services’ team, I thought that a Click ‘n Collect Order from Sainsburys should have been easy enough.
Obviously this was not to be and even if there were Online Delivery or C & C Slots I will never know because I could not even register with their system. This was particularly irritating because all these Companies are continually putting out essentially fraudulent PR that claims that they are “helping vulnerable customers”. On top of that, I have pretty much been a customer of Sainsburys all my life because my mum used to shop there !!
The catch is that there are ‘Vulnerable customers’ and ‘Vulnerable customers’ and I am clearly not quite vulnerable enough for their tastes. It was winding me up a treat because even though I have an excellent immune system (despite the obvious I never seem to get ill from infections or even mild stuff like flu or colds), I have a limited Lung capacity (I cannot even blow up a normal sized party balloon) because due to my paralysis from chest level, my stomach muscles are of no use at all in helping to fill my lungs like what is normal. This means that I cannot cough properly and it is more like a cat being sick !! As a result I suspect that if I was to catch the dreaded Rabies then it would most likely not be too pleasant. Anyway, I just kept banging my head against a wall and getting more and more annoyed by the whole ridiculous situation (let’s face it, the Government and Supermarkets have been utterly pathetic with this whole food delivery thing for people who are self-isolating and all that) and I was really getting quite emotional. I finally realised that I had to take control of the situation and stop letting other useless idiots get me down and screw up my life. So I just made the simple decision to get in the Cupra and whizz down to Sainsburys in Staines (yes, the home of Ali G and the Massiv) and get the food myself if nobody else was capable of managing it. The Cupra also needed a run and some gas. And as it happened, probably to an extent because it was early on Wednesday afternoon, there were no queues or anything and I just rolled in and it was pretty much empty and I could easily avoid people and keep my distance and in the main they had everything I wanted – although Bread was getting a bit rare and Vitamin C is like Rocking Horse poo. It was so nice after all these weeks of silliness to do something that seemed a bit ‘normal’ and like my life before all this crud kicked off. Having said that, it was certainly not normal to have such clear roads (which of course in a Cupra is always rather nice) although I would say it was most definitely busier than any other day that I have been driving during the Lockdown period. There is no doubt in my mind that people are really bored with it all now and the Rules are being bent quite out of shape. The definitions of ‘essential’ and ‘exercise’ and ‘1 hour’ are all being distorted hugely. It is yet another psychology lesson about how something can annoy you and play on your mind for ages and ages and yet, once you make a decision and stick to it, you can turn things around instantly and in this case it has calmed me down so much and taken away a huge worry. The daft thing was that I suspect I was in far more risk of getting ill from the worry than ever getting ill from the Virus. Yet again an example of ‘Learned Helplessness’ where we become so engrossed and fixated on our problems that we cannot see an easy way out; and it is only once we suddenly have a moment of clarity and enlightenment that we can simply reframe our thinking and resolve the problem. Important for Investing and Trading that as well – if something keeps going wrong then don’t just keep repeating the screw-up but step aside and think ‘out of the box’ and find a solution. There is always a solution and nearly always it’s very simple and easy. I am typing this on Saturday night and having watched Sky News earlier and some other stuff, it is obvious that the Lockdown is on its last legs now and the General Public are lacking the resolve they had previously and of course the gorgeous weather is encouraging them out as well. With the utter pig’s ear that the Government and State Machinery are making of pretty much every aspect of this crisis, it would be reasonable for the Public to start wondering why they are the only part of Society that seems to care. We are doing our best to help protect NHS Workers and yet the powers that be cannot even manage to give them basic PPE protection even all this time after things kicked off. The fact that in excess of 100 NHS Workers and Care Home Workers have died is just utterly shocking. And the government keeps coming up with some nonsense about how the lack of PPE has nothing to do with it. They really think we are stupid. There is more pressure coming on the government from abroad because many Countries in Europe are now starting to come out of Lockdown and after a while the people here are going to wonder why it is taking so long. It has been obvious to everyone that there is a trade-off between NHS Capacity to deal with the Lurgy and the amount of damage inflicted on the Economy and also the ‘hidden’ deaths from things such as no Cancer Screening, Urgent Operations being cancelled and shocking things like the number of people presenting at GP Surgeries down 40% or something. It is merely storing up future problems, which are likely to be many magnitudes larger than the ‘cost’ of dealing with the Covid19. One of the most crazy things is that we now have huge amounts of capacity in the NHS and they have actually been sending staff home from A&E Departments !! And in the last week we have started to see some Economic Numbers – I guess the Lockdown could work for a point until people wised up to the damage it was causing. It is early days but the worst ‘Flash’ PMI Numbers ever – something like 12.5 with the previous lowest being 28 or so in the Credit Scrunch; and then the Retail Sales which were for only 2 weeks but again were the worst ever. Clothing down 35% and overall Sales down 5% but the latter was boosted by the panic buying of bog rolls. The next set of numbers will be truly jaw-dropping no doubt. It is highly likely that the ‘Cure’ is far more deadly than the ‘Disease’. I keep hearing ‘the usual suspects’ saying things like “we need to reshape society and the economy as a result of this” and “things can’t go on like they are” and “we cannot have the Austerity like we had in 2008” and I just think it is fantasy thinking. I am pretty sure very little will change because little ever does. It is crazy to think we can spend massive amounts of money from borrowing and get into a worse situation than that which faced the Public Finances in 2008 and yet carry on spending as if nothing has changed. It is nonsense. There will be Austerity I am certain but it just will be reframed in how it is presented (of course there never was any ‘Austerity’ anyway – Government Spending increased every year during the Tory misrule). I do think some things will change but they are likely to be temporary. The obvious ones are that ‘Social Distancing’ looks pretty much here to stay for many months and we could easily end up having to wear Face Masks (the Scientific Advisers and Politicians seem totally all over the place on this one) and I suspect that ‘Working’ from Home may become a bit more prevalent because Companies will realise they can save on Costs but the culture of ‘Presenteeism’ that pervades so many organisations is unlikely to just vanish overnight. I suspect many people like physically going to work because of the change of scenery and to get away from other halves and kids !! Zoom may get more use but again I suspect much of its current popularity will wane. Anyway, the Economic troubles facing the Globe are immense and yet the Markets keep going up, as we will see in the Charts in a bit. Last Week Quite a difficult week in the sense that things were a bit sideways really and quite choppy with the Bears really trying hard to take things down and of course plenty of activity in the Oil market. In light of all this I am pretty pleased to have gained 1% on my Portfolio and this helps to recoup some of the damage inflicted by the big Sell-off. I was helped a fair bit by Boohoo BOO having some superb Results and this also came with a strong Outlook and showed they were making hay whilst other Clothing Retailers were struggling. It reminds me of an important concept which I keep bleating on about regarding how the sizing of Positions can have such an effect and when you have a big Position that then keeps going up, it increasingly helps your Portfolio; whereas working the other way, a Position that falls and falls just becomes less of a worry. Most people do not seem to grasp this and the vital importance of ‘Running your Winners’. It very much plays to how you need to put a lot of thought into Position sizing and you can only really go big on things where you have very high conviction and where the Stock has momentum – both in the business and in the Chart on a long-term view. When you have something where you think the Risks are high and it could go horribly wrong, then you must make sure you have less exposure. Remember, if it is a ‘proper’ Company (as opposed to some loss-making AIM fantasy garbage), then even if it does fall for a while, then at some point new Management will come in and turn it around and you can then buy plenty more at a really good price. In terms of strategy I am not doing much. I am about 115% Invested and if anything I would like to add another Long Spreadbet on the S&P500 and take it up to 130%. With all the sideways moving last week, I did not get inspired but Friday was strong for the US and perhaps next week I can make my move. We have the start of the US Earnings Season next week so that could prove interesting. I suspect expectations are extremely low though so we might see upside……… Blog Slate It’s a long story but I am not managing to get much written at the moment. Anyway, I still have the Guest Blog from a mate which should come out this week and I have plenty of ideas but I have not decided what to write next and all the demands on my time are not making it easy (how is it that in a Lockdown I have even less time than usual?). No doubt I will start on something with a vengeance soon. Time for the Charts and I am particularly intrigued by the FTSE100 because of the Dairylea – which I will show in due course but it could be the most wealth-inducing bit of soft cheese you have ever tasted !! S&P500 As is always the case, the Charts I show are taken from the peerless SharePad Software that I use and if you click on them, they should grow bigger on your screen. As usual I will start with ‘big picture’ stuff and here is the Chart of the Weekly Candlesticks. My Blue Arrow is pointing at the Candle for last week and this kind of ‘Hanging Man’ shape can be a Reversal Candle so it could indicate that the S&P500 will turn down. However, all it really needs to do is to get over nearby Resistance to pretty much rule out such a Bearish scenario and this means a rise over 2882 should mean the Bulls are still running. Ideally we will see a Daily Close over 2882 – rather than a spike up during the day that then drops back.
Next probably the most useful Indicator I know which is the 13 Day EMA Lines (Black Line on the Chart) and the 21 Day EMA Lines (Exponential Moving Averages and the 21 is the Red Line on the Chart). On the Chart below my Red Arrow marks a Bull Cross from over a week ago and this implies more gains until we get a Bear Cross (like where my Black Arrow is).
My next Chart shows the Monthly Candlesticks but note the Candle for April (where my Blue Arrow is) is not valid until Thursday Night when April is finally completed. However, if we see gains this week or even just stay about level for the next 4 days, then this will create a big White Bullish Candle and in combination with the previous down Candle, this is a Bullish Pattern.
In the bottom window on my next Screen we have the Daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the S&P500 and I find this quite intriguing. Despite all the recent gains, we are still only on a Reading of RSI 52 where my Black Arrow is and this is a Neutral level. This means that if the S&P500 wants to go up then it can travel a long way before being Overbought and if it wants to fall, then it can drop a long way before being Oversold……
Last up for the S&P500 we have the Daily Candles with the Pink Zone marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Black Arrow points to a small Up Candle from Friday and last week the S&P500 pretty much went sideways despite plenty of chop. To the Upside we need to get over the recent High marked by my Blue Arrow at 2879 and if this happens, and we can Close above that, then it suggests more gains.
I have a small Long Spreadbet on the S&P500 and ideally I would like to add to it early in the coming week.
FTSE100
Below we have the Weekly Candles for the FTSE100 and after a very roller-coaster week, we finally got the Weekly Candle that my Blue Arrow is pointing at. Following the Candle from the previous week, this looks a bit Bearish in that the FTSE100 could be turning down but to be sure a move above 5894 (and ideally a Daily Close) would wipe out this Bearish scenario. On the Bullish side of things, the fact that the FTSE100 has been able to Close off its Lows for the week for 2 weeks on the trot is a promising sign.
Next we have the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines and where my Red Arrow is look at how close together these Lines are – a Bull Cross would not need much upside to be triggered now and if it happens it usually means weeks of gains ahead.
In the bottom window below we have the RSI for the FTSE100 Daily and on a reading of RSI 46 this is very near Neutral and is not vastly different from what I wrote about the S&P500.
Like I did with the S&P500, the Chart below has the Monthly Candles for the FTSE100 and the Candle for April which is pointed at by my Blue Arrow, is not yet valid and we need to eagerly await Thursday Night. However, if we get a Small White Up Candle here (especially if it Closes for April up off the Low of the month) then that would form a Bullish 2 Day Candlestick Pattern. No doubt I will be tweeting about these on Thursday Night.
At last I will show you the Toblerone that you have all been desperately waiting for. My Chart below has the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 and the Pink Zone marks the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. Anyway, I am not particularly fixated on that and what really intrigues me is that Triangle.
The key here is the Blue Line (marked by my Blue Arrow) at about 5894 which is the Flat Line of the Triangle and then the Hypotenuse is the Green Line (Green Arrow) and the bottom Point of the Triangle is down at the Low of recent Months which is at 4898 and where my Black Line is (Black Arrow). The Triangle is completed by the ‘Height’ bit which is where my Red Arrows are and these are massively significant because the theory runs that as the Green Line squeezes against the Top Flat Line (the Blue Line) then if the FTSE100 can Break-out through 5894 then it will run ultimately to the Height of the Triangle – so that implies 5894 minus 4898 which is roughly 1000 points. That is a huge amount and would take us up to 6900 ish. Hopefully you can see now why I am so obsessed by this Triangle and if it does Breakout then it would be extremely tempting to put a Long Spreadbet on it. My hunch is that if Oil can recover a bit this coming week then that would be all it needs to push the Oil Stocks and Miners up and get the Breakout. Anyway, that’s it for this week, Good Luck for the coming battles and try to stay a bit sane if you can. Cheers, WD.
2 Comments
Ann Droid
4/28/2020 07:12:10 am
"Rocking Horse poo" . What ?
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WheelieDealer
5/1/2020 01:15:51 pm
Hi Ann,
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