This probably won’t be hugely lengthy because I am actually starting it on Friday Night and hopefully I can get it nailed and published on Saturday Night – because I am off to the Pub on Sunday if everything goes to plan. After weeks and weeks of Lockdown and all that, I am pretty desperate to do something a bit more ‘normal’ although in truth I don’t tend to go out all that much over the Winter hibernation period anyway. I don’t do cold and I certainly don’t do wet and that icy stuff is just not in my vocabulary……
Earlier today the latest Podcast TPI 37 was issued and I think Listeners will enjoy it. We cover loads of Stocks and some in quite a bit of detail, and also there is a lot about the likely Roadmap for the Markets through December and into January and Springtime next year. It is impossible to be 100% correct on such predictive slants, but having a rough idea what is most likely to occur, and having a plan for if/when that doesn’t play out, gives a very good direction to head off in.
You wouldn’t set off for a walk in a Forest stuffed full of Grizzly Bears without some idea of where you are going.
Especially because if you stray outside that Forest, then the Bulls will gore you as they relentlessly charge in the opposite direction to you !! As ever, if you go to the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel on Platforms such as Audioboom, Apple, Overcast, Spotify, Youtube and probably some others that I can’t remember, then just look for TPI 37 and away you go. If you hit the ‘Subscribe’ button then you will be notified when new Podcasts go out (they come out once a fortnight) and of course they are all FREE for you lovely Readers to suffer. The Soundcloud installation of TPI 37 can be listened to here: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-37-santarally-pfe-tpx-renx-loop-boo-ang-pets-mgp-nuc-uls-cbp Mello Monday Online Events – Guest Appearance I will be talking on the next Mello Monday Event on 14th December and I think David Stredder (@carmensfella on the Tweets) will be interviewing me. You can find out about what else is on at the link below and if you want to sign up, then there is a Discount Code which is ‘TwitMM50’ which gets you 50% off. The Normal Price is £19.50 for the one Event and you can get 50% off that or an Annual Pass is £95 and that gets you loads of them (15 or something), but the Discount does not apply to the Annual Pass. It is a great opportunity to spend a Tenner and see if you like it: https://melloevents.com/upcoming-event/mellomonday-14th-dec/ Last Week Markets are just treating us so well at the moment and the FTSE100 even Broke-out above 6512 today and fulfilled the prediction of the Bull Flag and I suspect we have more upside to come. I will get on to the Charts later in this blog but last week my Portfolio gained another 2.3% and it is now up 11% since January 1st 2020. I am really pleased with this and hopefully I can squeeze out some more as long as I stay on top of things and don’t let the Risks get too high. I talked a lot about my Strategy on the Podcast TPI 37 but, as usual, I am not doing a huge amount of Trading although there are 3 Stocks I am very serious about and next week I expect to move some Cash around and at least buy 1 of those, which I actually tried to buy as a Spreadbet this week but it is too illiquid and the Spread I am getting offered is crazy. I will buy as Normal Shares and might not do a Spreadbet on this one. I am then pretty keen on another of those Stocks but need to do some checks and the 3rd one I need to have a really good look at and think about. On top of that I want to add a FTSE100 Long Spreadbet very soon, and depending on what the Charts tell me, I might do a small one early in the coming week and then add to it or double it if I get more nice signals. The ‘Santa Rally’ is usually pretty reliable and it is lovely if I can add a few more quid in the dying days of the year. I am however very mindful of the situation on my Spreadbet Long Exposure as it keeps going up. It is so easy to get over-Exposed and that can be a nightmare if the Markets tank. I may be chopping my Spreadbet Exposure a little soon. Oh, I still have something like 4 Takeover Situations playing out and I am letting these do their thing at the moment. The Bid for AA looks extremely low and Albert Bridge Capital thinks it is worth at least twice the current Offer and they suggest Shareholders vote against the Bid at the General Meeting early next year. That could get interesting. The TCM situation is not going all that great at the moment, with a Possible Offer of 190p being far too low but it is what it is, and if it happens I will just take it on the chin and move on. MCS is still playing out. GOCO looks a ‘done deal’ but I am not rushing to bank my Cash. SharePad Pro ‘Black Friday’ Offer During the latest Podcast, TPI 37, I mentioned an Offer that SharePad are doing just for a couple of weeks as a ‘Black Friday’ thing. The Offer is for SharePad Pro which includes Level 2 and Live Prices as well as all the usual stuff the other versions of SharePad contain. Normally it is £69 a month but the Offer is ‘3 months for the price of 1’ and you can save £138. It runs until the 14th December so you have plenty of time and if you sign up then SharePad pays me a little bit as well – and you know the Wheelie Beer Fund always needs regular topping up !! And of course I need money for Scotch Eggs…… To take up the Offer, go to the Link below and type in the ‘Promo Code’ ‘twinpetesbf’ and that should sort it out. Feel free to contact me if you have any queries. https://www.sharescope.co.uk/add_to_basket.do?pid=143 By the way, if you fancy ‘normal’ SharePad then there are loads of Images around my websites that you can click on to get 1 month of Free Data. Blog Slate I think it was earlier this week that I published the first of a 2-parter on the ‘Luck vs Skill’ thing which I raised as a subject in the Podcast TPI 36 (you can find it on WD1 on the ‘Educational Blogs’ page). Last night I cracked on with Part 2 and it is flowing nicely but it will take some time to complete. Maybe I can get it done next week but I won’t be rushing. If I buy 1 or 2 or even 3 new Stocks soon, then I will probably write some ‘Stock Buy Rationale’ blogs and that will keep me very busy. I can see that taking me up to January and of course at that point it will be all hands on the ‘Scores on the Doors 2020’ blog, which I am looking forwards to producing because I always find breaking down my Results in detail is very insightful for me personally and I know Readers love reading them. I need to update the ‘Monthly Performance’ page for November and I will try to get that done next week. So there is plenty to keep me occupied. Talking of Blogs If you nip over to the ‘Blog Index List’ page that sits on WD2, then you can find the full list of all the Blogs I have ever written and the Educational ones all have Links on them so you just click and you get it. From that List, I bring you this old beauty which will give you an idea of what to expect in the ‘Scores on the Doors 2020’ as I will no doubt follow exactly the same format: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/scores-on-the-doors-2019 Let’s check those Charts then. FTSE100 As is always the case, I have taken the Images I show from the superb SharePad software I use and if you click on them, then they should get a bit larger on your screen. If you fancy using SharePad yourself (and you have been naughty by not reading my blurb above first and just jumping to the ‘good’ bits !!), then earlier in this blog I wrote about a ‘Good Friday’ Offer that SharePad is running. I’m starting with the FTSE100 this week because it did what looks like an important Breakout on Friday and I want to sniff around it and see if it’s the smell of roses or the brown squidgy stuff you put on the roses !! The Chart below shows the Weekly Candles for the FTSE100 and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a tasty Big Up Candle and this looks Bullish. Note for 2 weeks before it went sideways and as I have discussed many a time, if you break that down to the Dailies you can see that it was a Sideways Consolidation move and very much the Bull Flag I have been droning on about. The Breakout is over the Red Line (Red Arrow) at that key level of 6512 and the Charting Theory now says that this Former Resistance should act as Support from here on. It is possible that we have an Overshoot and it drops back fast and that would not be so good, but I suspect the most likely is more quick upside and then a Pullback which takes us back towards the Red Line. That should then ‘Test’ Support and start moving back up again. There is a Traders’ theory that any such move up off Support will be very fast and shoot off like a rocket. Clearly ‘shooting off like a rocket’ would be nice but I don’t mind too much if we just get a nice steady rise !! In many ways, such steady climbs can be more sustainable and easier to trade than jet-powered moves. If you use Leverage then slow steady moves will actually boost your Wealth pretty quickly. The Black Box at the Top Left of my Chart is something I drew yonks ago but it is actually useful again and it tells us there is a Zone of Resistance from about 7000 to 7800 – but I doubt many Long Investors and Traders would be complaining if we get even a rise to 7000 in coming months. Before that there is Resistance at about 6850 but that still gives another 300 Points up from here. I will look at the Daily Candlesticks soon but this is all making me even more keen to get a Long FTSE100 Spreadbet on soon.
Next up I am really looking at the Black 13 Day EMA Line (Exponential Moving Average) and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. Where my Black Arrow is we had a ‘Bull Cross’ and you should be able to figure out that ever since that we have had a lovely move up. The predictive power of these Signals is excellent (except when a Market is moving in a Sideways Range) and in this case if you had followed the Signal then you could have made at least 300 Points and I suspect a lot more.
Oh, something I keep meaning to say is that I don’t actually need to look at the 13/21 Day EMAs at the moment. What I mean by this is that when a Market is so Bullish like it is currently and it keeps making New Highs, then with experience you realise that the 13/21s must also be Bullish. It is only when a Market starts going Sideways or dropping away that the potential for a ‘Bear Cross’ on the 13/21 Day EMAs becomes possible and that is when there is a lot of value in tracking the progress of how the EMA Lines are moving in relation to each other. I showed this before, but my Ellipses are pointing out the Bull Flag. The Red Ellipse is the Flagpole and the Black Ellipse is the Clothy bit that flows in the breeze. My Blue Arrow is pointing to the juicy big White Up Candle from Friday where the Breakout occurred.
My Chart below in the Bottom Window has the RSI (Relative Strength Indicator or Index or Icecube or Ichthyosaurus or whatever you fancy), and where my Arrow is the Reading is RSI 70 and this is ‘Overbought’ and very high. It can squeeze a little more out and I suspect that will happen, but this actually lines up with my thinking that we will see a rise from here, then a Pullback and then it will rise again.
If you look to the left, then you will see a few higher RSI Levels but these are unusual and tend to mark a peak – so this lines up with my thinking that immediate upside might be limited. However, this doesn’t contradict what I have said (especially in the Podcast TPI 37 and I recommend you listen to it) about the Santa Rally and why I want to do a Long Spreadbet on the FTSE100 soon. However, because I think we might see a little rise and then a Pullback or some sort of Consolidation, this is why I am thinking a Small Long first and then add another in time.
On the Chart below, we have the Daily Candles and the Pink Zone is marking the Bollinger Bands. My Green Arrow is pointing to the Big White Up Candle from Friday and note how it is ‘Hugging’ the Upper Band and it can do this a bit but at some point soon it will start moving away from the Band – either by dropping a tad or by going Sideways.
Down below we have Support where the Red Line (Red Arrow) is which is the Bollinger Midpoint Line at about 6400 and it is difficult to see on this Chart, but the Upper Band is at about 6620 which could be Resistance. There is good Support down at 6263. This looks a well Supported Market. If like me you like Wide Stops, then the perfect place to put them is below the Flag at around 6250 but obviously you need to be more clever than to just go for an obvious Round Number.
Brent Oil Composite
My Chart below has the Daily Candles for Brent. This is great technically because where my Red Ellipse is highlighting a ‘Bearish Shooting Star’ Candle that tagged $50, you should be able to see a very similar Candle in my Blue Ellipse which predicted a drop back for a couple of days. And people make out that Candlesticks don’t ‘work’ (the truth is they don’t know how to interpret them and use them). $50 is obviously an important psychological level and an ease back from here is pretty likely, but I suspect that before long we will see the Price happily up at $50 and then it can move on to $55 and $60. There is decent Support back at around $47. My Black Arrow is marking a Bull Cross on the 13/21 Day EMA lines and whilst this is Bullish, there is not much to concern anyone who is Long on Oil or Long on Oil Stocks with a timeframe longer than the next few days.
Next we have the Weekly Candles for Brent. My Blue Ellipse is highlighting a Doji Candle and this shows some hesitancy. This is no surprise because $50 is such an important Level.
In the Bottom Window next along, we have the RSI for the Daily Brent Oil Comp Price, and where my Black Arrow is we have a Reading of RSI 70 which is Overbought although it has been higher quite a few times in the recent past. Again this all lines up with the idea that we will see some Consolidation around $50 most likely.
You may not have noticed, but most Nights during the Week I Tweet out what I am seeing on loads of Index Charts and I usually include Brent Oil. Normally this is sort of 10pm onwards but on Thursday Night I don’t tend to say much because Fridays can be so ‘weird’.
S&P500
First we have the Weekly Candles. My Black Arrow is marking a Big White Up Candle from last week and this is obviously Bullish, especially because it has made yet another All Time High (remember, this tells us that the 13/21 Day EMAs will also be Bullish). Note how it Brokeout over Resistance from my Green Line at about 3600 and this should now be Support, and also note how 3400 where my Blue Arrow is was a previous Peak which should also be decent Support. Make no mistake, this is a very Bullish Market and you do not want to be Short !! (unless you trade in hour timeframes but that is flippin’ hard work).
This is really interesting. In the Bottom Window below, the RSI for the S&P500 Daily is telling us that even though it has been making New All Time Highs, the RSI Reading is ‘only’ RSI 66 which gives room to rise a bit more. Note that not that long ago it hit RSI 82 – if it repeats that trick (unlikely but we might get near) then it means a lot of upside from here.
Finally tonight (I need to crack on with heating that Ginsters !!), here is a Chart of the Daily S&P500 Candles and the Bollingers. My Blue Arrow is pointing to where the Candle from Friday got up near the Top Band but it is not quite there (that’s at about 3720). The Midpoint Line (Red Arrow) is at about 3640 and that should be Support and down below the Bottom Bollinger is at about 3550 and there is good Support down to 3500.
OK, that’s it for this week. Good Luck and all that and don’t do anything rash. Cheers, WD.
2 Comments
WheelieDealer
1/10/2021 07:51:35 am
Thanks J, great to hear you still find them useful. Hopefully my health aggravation will ease soon and I can get a lot more productive again. And of course a beer with your good self would be rather welcome !!
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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