Bit of a tedious week for me with firstly a small pressure sore on my hip, confining me to the sofa until I was able to escape it on Friday, but also as a consequence (because I am sure the posture on my sofa irritates the problem in my abdomen area), I was in quite a bit of pain and that was irritating me.
I have always had in the back of my mind that if things really got to a limit, then I would go up to Stoke Mandeville Hospital near Aylesbury, and I would present myself in Accident & Emergency and cause a bit of fuss. Anyway, that option has never really appealed because it would no doubt mean a long wait, but on Thursday it hit me that instead of rocking up at A&E, I could just show my face (well, the bit that wasn’t covered by a filthy mask) at the Spinal Outpatients Department and try to get something happening via that route.
So I had quite a nice drive up to the Hospital on Friday (although much of it was stuck behind one of those ‘Gulley Sucker’ trucks), and I turned up at the Outpatients Department and pressed the buzzer and waited for a Nurse to appear. She was a bit confused when I told her I didn’t have an appointment (in these Covid days, if you break the process then woe betide you !!) and eventually a more senior nurse, or perhaps she was a sister, came to deal with it and she was really helpful.
As a result, I have a new escalation route now via something called the Patient Advice & Liason Service (PALS) and apparently if I contact them then they will take control of the situation and push things through. If that also fails to get anywhere, then I can put in an Official Complaint via some sort of route and I can even contact the Care Quality Commission who are I understand a separate body to the Health Trust I am dealing with. But before that stage, I was promised that something would happen next week and I am pretty sure they said I would get a ‘Consultation’ – my concern there is that firstly it will most likely be by phone (almost useless to be honest), and secondly, I am not convinced that my Consultant is actually capable. I have my doubts but I will give them a chance. If I am still not happy then I will use this PALS thing. The whole fiasco is really irritating and I have enough hassles in my life without such nonsense, but clearly C19 is a factor and I am sure that without this situation then things would have been very different. 9 months and still no proper diagnosis is pretty disgraceful though. We’ll see…….. Latest TPI Podcast We will be recording TPI 55 this coming week (it is remarkable how fast the fortnights whizz by), but you can catch the most recent, TPI 54, at the links below. TPI 54 includes a discussion with an Institutional Investor from New York (I am amazed the technology held up) and as always lots on Markets and loads of quality Stock ideas. If is well worth the FREE subscription, just for the Stock ideas !! (and no, we won’t be refunding any subs for dissatisfied Listeners !!) If you go to the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel on all the major Platforms, then you should find the full archive of ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcasts there and on the ‘Twin Petes Investing Podcast’ page on my Website WD2, you can play it directly from there. Soundcloud here: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-54-special-guest-goog-msft-aapl-inflation-bez-xar-rst-gaw-barc YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTDav30K3kI WheelieBash 2021 The WheelieBash this year will take place on Saturday 4th September 2021 at The White Hart in Winkfield near Windsor as usual. I am allowed 60 peeps and we just have a few Slots left – so be quick if you wanna come. It is Free to attend and if you want to come then email me or DM me on Twitter or whatever. If you go to the relevant page on my Website (I think it is on WD2) then you can see all about WheelieBashes from previous years. It kicks off at 12.00 Noon and if you want food you need to order by 2pm. They do more food in the evening, so don’t worry, you are unlikely to die of starvation. You might get an aching face from smiling, especially after the grim time we have had in recent months, and your hand might ache from taking notes of all the great ideas you hear about. It is totally informal and everybody is welcome, come and go as suits you. All ages and experiences are always represented and it is an unmissable opportunity to meet other like-minded Investors and Traders. Last Week A very quiet week with typical summer markets and low volumes, but rather pleasingly my Portfolio was up 1.2% and has hit yet another Fresh All Time High (ATH), which is a bit nice. Anyway, my Strategy is, as always, not doing very much at all. If anything, my focus is on reducing my Long exposure and building my Cash pile – I am probably about 5% Cash or so and I am very primed to look for signs that I might need to Hedge my Portfolio via Index Short Spreadbets. The Test System that I am running for Index Spreadbets has recovered very quickly (that is a quirk of the Leverage) and at its worst point recently it was down 20% on the Capital I put in, but now it has recovered to less than 5% down. I am so praying for it to turn positive and that would be rather welcome because it would help to build the Cash Buffer, in advance of a possible sizeable fall in the Markets in the Autumn (which is an extremely common occurrence). Blog Slate It is more than a little frustrating that my health seems to have been going backwards again but hopefully the new impetus I have injected into the NHS will make a recovery possible – although it might take a while. With this being the case, I am unlikely to be able to do any Educational Blogs for a while but I will try to do the Weekend ones (like this one !!). I need to update the ‘Monthly Performance’ page for July and I will try to do that this coming week – it doesn’t take all that long. I am also aware that there is loads of housekeeping and tidying up needed on both websites, but I won’t be able to address all that until I am fixed. With luck I can do that in the Winter along with a new venture that I have planned. From previous Dust-Ups If you go to the ‘Blog Index List’ page on my Website WD2, then you can find the full list of all the Blogs I have scribbled since I started the WD silliness about 7 years ago. All the worthwhile and educational ones have links to them and there is a sort of Search facility, although I find that doesn’t work so well via my Android Fone. This one I wrote back in July 2017 and with Wimbledon just having ended a few weeks ago, and with the Olympics going on as I type this on Saturday night, it is sort of apt. MotoGP is also back from a 5/6 week break and we got the announcement that Valentino Rossi is finally going to retire, at the age of 42. He really was the master of psychology and mind-games and utterly transformed the sport and made it massively more popular than it was before he arrived. It has a lot of sporting references but at the end I relate the importance of psychology on Investing: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/how-to-be-a-winner Better look at some pretty pictures then……. Gold Composite All the Charts I show are taken from the excellent SharePad software I use and if you click on the images then they should get a bit bigger on your screen (I recommend you read these Blogs on a big screen rather than just a Fone – there is a lot of detail to be seen). I know some Readers actually look at their Charts on SharePad or whatever method they use as they read through my blogs. If you fancy using SharePad or ShareScope yourself, then you can get 1 month’s Free Data if you go to the ‘Subscribe’ page on their website and then select the Product you want, and then you should see a ‘Promo Code’ box and if you type ‘twinpetes’ into that box, then the discount will apply. You can also get this by clicking on the Adverts that are all over my websites. I get a small payment for introducing you, so thank you very much !! (it’s just a shame I can’t spend it on beer much at the moment…..) https://www.sharescope.co.uk/ I noticed also that SharePad/ShareScope have updated the landing page on their website and there is much better detail regarding the capabilities and features of their software now. In fact, Podcast TPI 50 contains a discussion with the Founder of SharePad/ShareScope, Martin Stamp. Highly recommended and of course you can find that one on the ‘Twin Petes Investing Podcast’ page on WD2. A couple of mates brought the movements in the Gold Composite Price to my attention after the drop on Friday (note the 13/21 Day EMA Lines were signalling weakness – but perhaps not that much !!). My Chart below shows the Daily Candlesticks for Gold Composite and if you look just below the Blue Arrow, you should see the huge Black Down Candle from Friday – clearly this is Bearish. My Blue Arrow is pointing at the way the Black 13 Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Line is dropping away from the Red 21 Day EMA and this looks Bearish. If you look closely at these 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines, you will see they have moved very tightly together for about 3 weeks and there was a clear failure by the Bulls to get a decisive ‘Bull Cross’ going. My Red Arrow is marking Support at $1750 or so and if you look in the bottom left-hand corner, my Blue sort of Circle is marking Support down to about $1700 and $1680.
Next up the Weekly Candles for Gold Composite. No big surprise with my Red Arrow marking a Big Black Down Candle for last week – that’s clearly Bearish.
In the bottom window on my next Screen we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index or Indicator) for the Gold Composite Daily. Where my Black Arrow is it is reading RSI 35 and this is quite low; although if you look to the left you should see it has often been lower. In the very Short Term, I would say this is looking almost oversold and a bounce must be likely soon. In the bigger picture though, I think Gold looks typically erratic and if anything it is Bearish.
S&P500
First up the Weekly Candles. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a small Doji Candle from last week but note how yet again the S&P500 made a Fresh New All Time High (ATH). This is just not normal behaviour and it continues to stoke my concerns that we will see a significant drop in the Autumn. I note there is good Support down around 4000, but purely on the price action now, this is actually a Bullish Chart; without doubt the strength in the Nasdaq Tech Indexes is driving the S&P500 up along with it.
My next Chart is really a shrine to the power of the 13 and 21 Day EMA Bull Cross. Look how powerful this trend has been and how even now, the Black 13 Day EMA Line is above the Red 21 Day EMA Line and this is Bullish.
When we eventually get a ‘Bear Cross’, that is likely to be highly predictive and I would anticipate a significant fall afterwards.
In the bottom window on my next Screen, we have the Daily RSI. On a Reading of RSI 66 this is high, but it can go higher as can be seen on the left of the Chart.
I won’t show it, but if you look at the Weekly RSI for the S&P500, that is up at about RSI 69 which is pretty much overbought.
Brent Oil Composite
Before checking out the FTSE100, I always like to see what state the Oil Charts is in – so here we go. First up the Weekly Candles for Brent Oil Comp and my Red Arrow is pointing to a Big Black Down Candle from last week, which is Bearish in itself. We then have Support down at about $66.94 then $60 and $55. To the upside, we have a Peak at $77.88 from 5 weeks ago. With all the talk of inflation, clearly if the Oil Price was to drop away, then that would ease the problem considerably. It intrigues me that Gold dropped so much with all this inflation talk – perhaps my view that Gold is just utterly unpredictable is holding sway.
Next we have the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines and my Big Black Arrow is pointing to a Bear Cross. This predicts more downside.
FTSE100
Below my first Chart for the FTSE100 has the Weekly Candles. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Small White Up Candle for last week and note how this is rising off of a Hammer Candle from 3 weeks ago – which is looking like a Turning Point. To the immediate upside, we need to get over 7218 which is marked by my Green Ellipse. Note how the FTSE100 is still behaving nicely within the confines of the Uptrend Channel I marked with my sort of Mauve/Pink Lines.
Next I am looking at the Black 13 Day EMA Line and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. My Red Arrow is marking a Bull Cross between these Lines for the Daily FTSE100 and this suggests upside to come.
In the bottom window on my next Screen, we have the RSI for the Daily FTSE100. On a Reading of RSI 56 this is only just above the Neutral RSI 50 Level and means there is room to rise loads (or fall loads !!).
OK, that’s enough for this week. Good luck with your coming battles and I hope if we do see some sunshine (ok, fat chance of that), you manage to get out and enjoy it. Cheers, WD.
1 Comment
Kevin S
8/8/2021 02:27:00 pm
Hi Pete,
Reply
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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