I’m not sure why, but not only is my Stomach misbehaving today whilst I type this text bit before the Charts (thank goodness I was sneaky enough to write the Charts stuff last night), but I am also feeling really quite tired. I don’t think I had all that late a night but I was awake ‘early’ to watch the MotoGP warm-ups and maybe things are catching up with me.
It is a bit awkward because I would normally pump myself full of Coffee and eat some Snickers Bars or something just to keep me going; but with my ongoing Stomach hassles I am trying not to drink Caffeine and Sugar Bars are out really and this is especially the case between meals, where I think ‘grazing’ is not giving my Stomach Lining any time to recover before the next load of Acid is pumped into it from my Gal Bladder (I am no expert, but I think that is roughly how it works).
It’s weird with my Stomach because some days it is really good and I almost feel back to ‘normal’, but on other days it plays up quite a bit. I am sure it is related to what I eat but I am trying to be so careful and it is hard to identify what is precisely triggering the less pleasant days. Many mates have asked me if it is stress-related, but quite frankly, I am in truth someone who never gets stressed (except perhaps when the Markets tank and I haven’t got big enough Hedges on !!!) If I feel stressed, then I tend to figure out ways to avoid such stress by planning and preparation in future. Being a paraplegic Wheelchair user, my life is very much about planning and organizing to avoid problems etc.
I have had a few lapses like a couple of Halfs down The White Hart, but mostly I have been very strict with myself and the key thing that I have managed to change is to cut out the grazing. That is hard because quite often I really crave a few Peanuts or a bit of Chocolate or something, but I just have to be disciplined. Hopefully in a few more weeks of self-flagellation and treating my body like a Temple (it must be a Temple to honour the Market Gods !!), I will be fixed and I can be naughty occasionally. I really want to get off the Pills entirely because I am no fan of putting chemicals into my body (except Real Ale obviously). Anyway, with how I am feeling today, I just want to get this completed and shoved up onto the Website; pronto. For that reason, I won’t include a Blog Archive bit this week. Podcast TPI 50 It’s hard to believe but somehow we have hit the significant milestone of doing our 50th Podcast – the classic Half Century. Obviously, we are both extremely pleased with how the Podcasts have been received by our Listeners and we have sought feedback from many angles to figure out what we can do to improve it – and pleasingly it seems like we are mostly on the right track and Listeners are enjoying our fortnightly nonsense. We feel like we have created a bit of a niche and what we do is a bit different to what other ‘Financial’ (I use the term extremely loosely in our case !!) Podcasts do, and we intend to keep it this way. Thank you so much for taking the time to listen and to encourage us with all your feedback and for contributing to the ‘Twin Petes Challenge’ chosen Charity for this year (Menphys – go to the ‘Twin Petes Investing Podcast’ page on WD2 and you can find a Link which takes you to the Just Giving page – any sized donations, however small, are going to help some kids who are not having the prosperous and enjoyable lives most of us take for granted) and we intend to keep pushing forwards and to rack up our next 50 Episodes to get the ‘Ton’. We will continue to seek out interesting Guests and to be the ‘Punks’ of the Investing/Trading world. To mark this momentous Milestone, we have a Special Guest and users of SharePad/ShareScope will find this particularly interesting and if you are thinking about using the software, then you should find it useful. If you do not use these products, then it is still a very good listen and has lots of insights about he Markets (and he proves me ‘right’ on something for which I have taken a lot of stick on Twitter !!). Anyway, as usual, if you go to the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel on the Major Podcast Platforms (and a lot of minor ones !!) then you can find the full Archive of the 50 Podcasts there and you want TPI 50. You can listen to it on SoundCloud or YouTube at the Links below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qUTFQnDHdA https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-50-special-guest-khc-bhp-bmy-pets-pmp-lgen-tek-bell-invp-ftse Last Week Bit of an up and down week for me and my Portfolio managed to eke out a tiny gain of 0.15%. I can’t complain and if I was to make a similar gain for all the weeks of the Summer, I would be very happy indeed by the time we get to Autumn !! In terms of my Strategy – please see the ‘Blog Slate’ section below, and listen to the Podcast, TPI 50 where I am sure I mention what I am doing and how I see things playing out. Blog Slate My Stomach really has been a right effin’ nuisance and I had carefully planned to actually start work on the Blog about my New Index Trading System, but frustratingly on Friday night I just didn’t feel great and it meant I couldn’t get started. It is not the end of the world, but the WheelieBrain is buzzing with thoughts about how to design the System and how to get this down in the form of a Blog. That might explain my lack of sleep – when my brainbox gets fired up I often spin ideas around in my head when I go to bed - at the expense of sleeping !! On the plus side, my close mate from College, Martin (@InvestingMartin on the Tweets) is coming up from Portsmouth on Wednesday Night and we intend to get to a suitable establishment for ‘Refreshments’ and to discuss in depth the New Trading System. Martin is an absolute Genius on things like this and there really is no better person for me to bounce ideas off and between the two of us, I am certain we can tweak the theoretical System to maximise the chances of it actually working in practice and with high Returns, low effort and a degree of consistency over time. Thanks mate, I really appreciate it !! Anyway, not much else to report but I did at least get round to completely the ‘Monthly Performance’ page on WD1 for May and I also changed the Text so I talk about Strategy and suchlike (in essence, my Strategy is to do as little as possible over the Summer and to get out and about and to enjoy myself !!). Brent Oil Composite All the Charts I show are taken from the excellent SharePad software I use and if you click on the images then they should get a bit bigger on your screen (I recommend you read these Blogs on a big screen rather than just a Fone – there is a lot of detail to be seen). I know some Readers actually look at their Charts on SharePad or whatever method they use as they read through my blogs. If you fancy using SharePad or ShareScope yourself, then you can get 1 month’s Free Data if you go to the ‘Subscribe’ page on their website and then select the Product you want, and then you should see a ‘Promo Code’ box and if you type ‘twinpetes’ into that box, then the discount will apply. You can also get this by clicking on the Adverts that are all over my websites. I get a small payment for introducing you, so thank you very much !! (it’s just a shame I can’t spend it on beer at the moment…..) https://www.sharescope.co.uk/ I noticed also that SharePad/ShareScope have updated the landing page on their website and there is much better detail regarding the capabilities and features of their software now. I am starting with Brent Oil Comp because this has quite an impact on the FTSE100 and I want to look at that Index before the US ones because I am working out my New Index Trading System and might use the FTSE100 initially to test it out. On my Chart below firstly note the Black 13 Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the Red 21 Day EMA Lines. These are Bullish at the moment with the 13 Day above the 21 Day, and this means we should see more upside in coming weeks. My Black Arrow is sort of pointing to a Small Candle from Friday and importantly this got higher than $71.4 which is Resistance from my Black Ellipse. However, it isn’t showing much gusto yet; but of course Fridays are very messy and therefore lack some validity. If it can keep rising, then Resistance at $72.2, $75.5, $80 and eventually $86.7 comes into play. The latter will likely be tough to crack but if it achieves it, that is highly Bullish. To the downside, Support is $70, $68, $66.5, $64.5, $64. This looks very well supported especially in the Zone where my Green Ellipse is.
In the bottom window on my Screen below we have the Weekly RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) for Brent Oil Comp. On a Reading of RSI 67 where my Black Arrow is, this is pretty high and perhaps upside is limited in coming weeks.
The RSI in the next Screen is for the Daily and at RSI 66 this is high but can go higher. On many recent occasions it hit up near RSI 80.
My Red Arrow below is pointing to a nice Big White Up Candle from Last Week – this is a Bullish sign. I won’t explain the other Arrows – these correspond to the Resistance Levels I pointed out earlier.
Finally for Brent the Daily Candles with the Pink Zone marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. The Candle from Friday is up near the Top Band and may need to ease back or at least go sideways for a bit to Consolidate. The Red Midpoint Line (Red Arrow) is at $70 and should be Support.
FTSE100
First up the Weekly Candles for the FTSE100. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Small Candle for Last Week with a bit of a ‘Wick’ upwards. I wouldn’t get too obsessed by this – if anything it looks like a Sideways Consolidation type move, which is usually a precursor to a further push up. Such a sideways move can unwind a high RSI Reading over a period of time, and is an alternative to a straightforward drop. My Pink Parallel Lines (Pink Arrow) are a fair estimation of an Uptrend Channel and so far it is behaving well within these Lines. To the upside, there is Resistance from the Black Box in the top left-hand corner up to about 7727, with 7500 as a tough area. To the downside, Support is 6823 to 6600 to 6250.
On my next Screen the Black 13 Day EMA Line is above the Red 21 Day EMA Line after a ‘Bull Cross’ where my Green Arrow is. This suggests more weeks of upside.
My Green Ellipse is marking Resistance at 7164 but before that the FTSE100 needs to crack 7100 where my Blue Ellipse is. Note the Small Candle from Friday is a pretty nice (but small) Hammer Reversal and it should rise off this.
In the bottom window below we have the Weekly RSI for the FTSE100. Where my Black Arrow is we are on RSI 60 which is not all that high but note how in recent times it has topped out well before the usual ‘Overbought’ RSI 70 Level. However, in the past it has been as high as RSI 80 so this is not impossible.
The next RSI is for the Daily FTSE100. On a Reading of RSI 58 this is not high at all, and means plenty more upside is easily possible.
Last up for the FTSE100 the Dailies and the Bollie Bands. My Blue Arrow is pointing to the Hammer from Friday and note the Top Band is at about 7108 and the Bottom Band 6990 and the Red Midpoint Line (Red Arrow) at about 7050.
S&P500
My initial thinking was that my New Index Trading System would be best suited to the FTSE100 but on reflection, I think that longer-term, the S&P500 would be best. However, in the shorter period, I think the FTSE100 is relatively undervalued and the S&P500 relatively overvalued. For this reason, I will probably start using the FTSE100 to test my System in small size, and once the time feels right, I will switch to the S&P500. That switch could be a few years away though and my current thoughts are that after perhaps a year of testing my System, I will start to scale it up. First up the Weekly Candles (sharp brained Readers might realise I tend to follow the same order when I look at the Charts and I start with the bigger timeframes and drill down), and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a Small ‘Inverted Hammer’ shape Candle from last week but I wouldn’t worry too much about this. Again, it looks like a bit of a Sideways move and note the S&P500 is very near its All Time High (ATH). To the downside, there is Support at 4056 then 4000 and down to 3723. My Parallel Black Lines look a pretty good constraint of Price moves within an Uptrend Channel and there should be Support from my Bottom Black Line (Black Arrow).
Next up the 13 Day EMA Lines and the 21 Day EMA Lines; and these are Bullish.
In the bottom window below we have the Weekly RSI for the S&P500. On a Reading of RSI 68 this is high and near Overbought. We could squeeze out a bit more, but this is a hint of concern.
Readers could do more analysis, but perhaps this means we can keep rising or going sideways through to the Autumn, and then see a Drop like often happens. Remember, it is usually the case that the Markets drop first and then the Financial Media (Bloomberg, CNBC etc.) come up with an ‘explanation’ of why it has happened. The truth is, that they mostly haven’t got a clue what triggered it. I try to make it simple – just let the Charts tell me what to do.
Next the Daily RSI for the S&P500. On a Reading of RSI 60 this is not high at all and means in the coming week or two, we could see upside.
And finally, we have the Daily Candles for the S&P500 with the Bollinger Bands. There was a nice Big White Up Candle from Friday but note it Closed pretty much bang on the Upper Bollinger Band. It might need to ease back a bit or go sideways to Consolidate before it can push up.
If it does ease back, there should be Support from the Red Midpoint Line (Red Arrow) at about 4200 and the Bottom Band is 4160. My Green Ellipse is pointing out strong Support near 4056. OK, that’s it this week. I hope you enjoy the Podcast and the Special Guest we have on it. Regards, WD.
3 Comments
master bags
6/6/2021 01:19:56 pm
You say "Weekly RSI for the S&P500 is on a Reading of RSI 68 this is high". 85% of punters are short of the US Market on IG.com. A sell off is coming in June. imho.
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junkmogul
7/16/2021 11:05:46 am
Your diet sounds quite dreadful. It may not be affecting just your stomach but also giving you metabolic disease.
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