In the context of what I am about to write, Readers who are fans of the legendary ‘Prog Rock’ band Rush will understand my title with reference to the front cover of their mid ‘80s Album of the same name…..
On Friday of this coming week, the 10th July, if all goes to plan on the technology front, then the Twin Petes will be appearing with a session in the afternoon at ‘Mello Virtual’ which you can find out about here and you can get a ticket. If you use the code MV20975 you can get 50% off and you will be able to watch for 30 days afterwards. https://melloevents.com/ This download pdf from the website explains a bit more regarding the technology side of things and it doesn’t look too complicated: https://melloevents.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/A-quick-delegate-guide-to-Mello-Virtual.pdf
Latest Podcast TPI 26
On top of the news that we will be at Mello Virtual, @Conkers3 and myself recorded a new Podcast on Friday Night and my hunch is that this one will be very popular. You might find some issues around the levels of the sound with myself appearing much louder and you might find that messing around with the balance settings on your chosen technology of playback might equalize things a bit. We have a solution to this now and we will try to get it right in future. You can hear it on SoundCloud via this link and if you use Apple, Audioboom, Overcast, Spotify, then you can find it under the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-26-winning-stocks-ytd-ocdo-avct-smt-pog-phe-ao-indv-bvc-cmcx Last Week Turned out quite a painful week for me with my Portfolio dropping 2.1% and much of this was arguably my own fault for trying to hedge via the use of a big S&P500 Short which I then switched to a Short on the FTSE100 because I was concerned about the US Jobs Numbers in particular (which turned out to be really strong and above Estimates) and because the S&P500 has huge exposure to the Nasdaq (as much as 40% if you believe some claims but it certainly gets hugely affected by the moves of the monster Tech Stocks like the good old ‘FAANGS’). My instinct is that I messed up by ‘jumping the gun’ on Shorting the S&P500 last Sunday Night (see my ‘Trades’ page and all the gory details are down there and if you read my ‘Stocks & Markets’ Blog from last weekend then the reasons for my decision to Hedge are all in there) and I talk about it at length right at the end of the new Podcast TPI 26 and there is some interesting psychology around this that I think Readers/Listeners might find worthwhile listening to and watching out for in your own Trading/Investing. The upshot of all that is that I now have a big Short Position on the FTSE100 and to give a sense of how balanced things are, on Friday when the Markets were pretty heavily spanked, my Portfolio was dead flat on the day so the falls on my Portfolio of Shares (and Long Spreadbets) was offset by the gains on the FTSE100 Short. I think the precise numbers are that I am about 45% Short and in effect 55% Long overall, so if Markets did get a nasty drop (I am not sure one is coming but things are definitely less Bullish than they were) I would still lose money overall I suspect, but the FTSE100 Short should limit the damage a lot. By the way, before doing the old switcheroo to the FTSE100, I looked at the Charts of Shell RDSB and BP. because of their significant weightings on the FTSE100 (much smaller than they used to be !!) and both Charts look weak so that supported my thinking to switch to the FTSE100. Other than all that I am not likely to do much going forwards. We are in the dreary market days of summer now and I expect plenty of choppiness and lack of direction and we could easily see a drift down. US Coronavirus Cases in the US are clearly going off the scale and this could easily spook the Markets. On top of that we have the Brexit Discussions which could go in any direction and of course the Autumn is usually a weak period for Stocks. We are a way off Autumn yet but knowing how quickly the weeks seem to whizz by, we could be there before you know it !! There are a few Stocks I would like to top up on such as Gately GTLY but I am in no rush as I think there will be plenty of opportunities ahead and I would rather buy when the Outlook is a bit more promising. With something like GTLY I have exposure anyway so if it goes up I am in the game and if it goes down then my Exposure is limited and I might get the chance to buy some at a really cheap price. We shall see. I also want to put a Spreadbet on it and of course this involves Leverage so I need to be even more careful. Blog Slate I have made decent progress on the ‘Buy Rationale’ Blog for Bango BGO and I hope to at least issue Part 1 later this coming week – although of course I might be spending loads of time trying to iron out technical hassles regarding our appearance at Mello Virtual !! I have a Guest Blog in very good shape which is near the top of the Pipeline as well and I have several Blogs in draft form which shouldn’t be too difficult for me to finish – so there should be plenty of stuff coming out in the months ahead. I want to focus on the BGO ones though and they are my priority. I actually managed to update the ‘Monthly Performance’ page on WD1 a few days ago and now I have moved away from the Weekly format it is so much easier (and probably just as useful if not more !!) for me to update and I am pleased I made that change. A Window on the Past As always you can find the full list of every WheelieBlog ever written under the ‘Blog Index List’ page on WD2 and all the ‘Educational’ ones have links direct to the Blog you want. This one is actually relevant to a discussion we had as part of the latest Podcast TPI 26 and it is something I come across pretty much at least several times a week !! https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/i-cant-buy-that-ive-missed-the-boat Time for the Charts then – let’s see if my Short has any chance of actually working for me !! Brent Oil Composite I like to keep things consistent and as a result the Charts I show are taken from the excellent SharePad software I use, and if you click on the images then they should get larger on your screen. My Chart below has the Daily Candlesticks for Brent Oil Composite and my Green Arrow is pointing to where we had a ‘Bull Cross’ between the Black 13 Day EMA Line (Exponential Moving Average – more weighted to recent days) and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. Such a Cross is highly predictive as you can see, and at the moment this is very much in Bull Mode on this Indicator. My Black Arrow is pointing to a small Doji Candle from Friday and it is possible that Brent Oil falls back from this in the short term. The nearby Resistance is the High of the Candle on Thursday at $43.2 and my Blue Line with the Blue Arrow at $44 is the next difficult and important Resistance Level to break through. If this happens, we are then looking at my Red Arrow at $45.5 and then we are up to $50. Below where we are now there is good Support around $40 and then down to $37.3.
Next we have the Weekly Candles for Brent and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a nice Up Candle from last week. What is interesting here is that the Candle for the week before was a Bearish looking one and if we had fallen this week it would have ‘Confirmed’ that Bearishness. However, we have managed to rise this week and that is a Bullish development in itself. As I mentioned above, it is all about that Resistance at $44.
Finally for Brent we have the Daily Candles with the Pink Zone showing the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Black Arrow is pointing to where we are now which is towards the Upper Band and note this Band is up near that $44 Resistance Level again and points to the importance of this Level.
Note also that the Bollinger Bands are tightening up and getting closer together – when this happens we often get an explosive move when it eventually breaks – but we cannot know in which direction until it starts to happen.
FTSE100
First up the Daily Candles but really I want to focus on the 13/21 Day EMA Lines here. Where my Blue Arrow is I am pointing at how the 13 and 21 are really close together but as yet we don’t have a Bear Cross. This is what I was referring to about “jumping the gun” because ideally I would probably have been wiser to wait and go Short when we had a clear and unambiguous Bear Cross on these Lines. However, because of the Black Down Candle from Friday on this Chart, it is hard to see the Lines properly so in a moment I will show the Chart again but flick a switch and use a different method of showing the Daily moves. Note the Triangle between my Black Line (Black Arrow) at the top and the Green Line (Green Arrow) at the bottom. It seems like the FTSE100 wants to go right to the Point of this Triangle and the way it breaks out will indicate the future direction. In other words, for my Short to work well, I need that Green Line to break down. This means a move below 6084 and then 6029 and then 5952. 5952 is obviously the key level here and if it fails then we could be in trouble.
As promised I have gone to the ‘Mid line’ format and my Big Red Arrow is pointing to the Dropdown Menu from which I selected this. Dead easy.
It is now much clearer that we do not have a Bear Cross between the Black 13 Day EMA and the Red 21 Day EMA, but note that the Lines are definitely squeezing together.
Next up the Weekly Candles for the FTSE100 and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a ‘Long Tails Doji’ that we got for last week. This doesn’t tell us a huge amount just that things were choppy. A positive interpretation would be that at least it didn’t fall more off of the Down Candle from the previous week.
To the upside, my Black Arrow is pointing to where the FTSE100 seems to have Turned Down from and the Level here is 6511.
S&P500
I am sure I mentioned somewhere above about how the Virus Cases were going off the scale in the US and it will be interesting to see if this spooks the Markets at some point and whether this is showing yet – I suspect not but of course last week was a strange one with both the US Non-Farm Payroll Numbers and the short week for the Independence Day Holiday. My Chart below has the Daily Candles with my Blue Arrow pointing to a Bearish Shooting Star shape Candle from Thursday but in this context (an ideal context for such a Candle to be very predictive would be after a run up of many days) it is a fairly weak signal of a Pullback. Key Resistance here is 3165 and if the S&P500 can get above that then we have a ‘Gap’ on the Chart where my Black Ellipse is parked and if it can get through this then the important Resistance is at 3233. To the downside Key Support is 3000. It is clear on this Chart that the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines are still in Bull Mode and I am pleased I switched to the FTSE100 for my Short.
Next we have the Weekly Candles for the S&P500 and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a pretty decent Up Candle for last week and really this is all about the Resistance and Support with my Black Arrow marking Resistance at 3233 and then my Red Arrow marking Support at 2965.
Finally for the S&P500 we have the Daily Candles and the Pink Zone shows the Bollinger Bands. Where my Black Arrow is the S&P500 fell from the Upper Band at about 3170 and note again how the Bands are tightening together.
Down at the bottom of the screen we have my Blue Arrow and this is pointing in the general direction of the Volume Bars for last week and note how they are relatively low by recent standards but this is no huge surprise with the Public Holiday in the US etc.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
My Chart below for the DOW is showing that the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines are really tight together but are still just in Bull Mode.
FTSE250
Last up for tonight I just wanted to see what was happening on the FTSE250. My Chart below has the Daily Candles but I have zoomed in so we can see the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines and at the moment they are quite similar to the FTSE100 with the Lines quite tight together but still in Bull Mode at this point in time. Where my Blue Arrow is though we got quite a Bearish looking Candle but in the context I don’t see this in itself as hugely problematic. OK, that’s it for now, Good Luck for the week ahead and don’t get too carried away down the Pub !! Cheers, WD.
2 Comments
Brian Blivion
7/7/2020 06:19:03 am
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WheelieDealer
7/8/2020 02:35:02 pm
Hi Brian,
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