If you have listened to Podcast TPI 49 (link below if you haven’t), then you will probably have heard my fairly comprehensive health report and since recording that last Wednesday, I can thankfully say that it really does look like the Doctors have at last discovered the problem and for my h8ters the sad news is that I am not going to snuff it, and for the fans, I guess it is good news !!
I still have the pain but it is at a much lower level and the drastic changes to my diet (to be honest, it is not the end of the world and I did need a kick up the posterior with regards to my predilection for eating anything that I see and in crazy amounts) and I even managed to get outside today in the freezing cold and light rain, to pump up the tyres on my MX5. I thought it was a bit spongy when I last drove it, and with tyre pressures at 20 psi instead of the necessary 29, I guess that would explain it. I can’t wait to drive it next and feel the improvement.
I am not sure when the pain will finally go away and of course I want to get off the Wonder Drug as soon as I can (I hate taking any kind of pharmaceutical and normally I only take one thing which keeps my bladder nice and supple – or it would go like a dried-up prune), but hopefully it won’t be long before I am able to slip in the odd pint and maybe even a few salted peanuts again !!!
Oh, nearly forgot. I had an MRI Scan at Stoke Mandeville Hospital last week although I don’t know what the results are yet and I have no idea when the Consultant will speak to me. I was a bit disappointed to be told that the MRI wouldn’t help with regards to shedding light on my Stomach problems (I am not that bothered because I doubt anything else is wrong and it is purely my cr*p diet), but I haven’t had one for an extremely long time and it will look at my Spine Bones and stuff and should spot, in a very vivid and clear way, if there is anything of concern. I must say it was utterly horrible going to Stoke Mandeville (yes, the home of that infamous paedo !!), because with all the Covid stuff it just felt soulless and unpleasant. Normally I go up to SMH and it is like a ‘home from home’ because I spent 7 months or so in there back in 1998 when I had my Accident and I have been up many times since. I guess as time goes by I know ever fewer of the Nurses and Docs and Physios and stuff and that is exacerbated by everyone wearing goddamn face muzzles and keeping apart from one another. The worst thing was the ‘Restaurant’ (I use the term lightly) which was more grim than ever and even had an immense queue just to buy a banana. I couldn’t wait to get out and back to my Cupra (especially because I had been messing about with the Settings on the way up and have finally got the thing handling like it should after 2.5 years.) Guess what? The Restaurant used to be called ‘Jimmys’………. “Now then, now then………..” I met him a couple of times when I was in the Hospital. The truly shocking thing was his racist ‘jokes’………. Last Week I am very happy to say that my Portfolio gained 1% last week and that was despite me having a couple of very small Hedges running. However, I get a real sense we are into the Summer period (ok, the weather suggests we are about to go into Winter !!!) and the Markets have a sense of the Summer lull and a lot of my Stocks really didn’t do much and just jiggled about a bit each day. My Strategy stays as per usual. I am not doing much, just monitoring the News on my Stocks and on other Quality Stocks and tracking the Charts religiously to spot any signs of imminent trouble. After the misery of my health problems and the dreadful Lockdown confinement, I am eager to get out and about this Summer and hopefully spend many hours in the Boozer. Unfortunately it looks like I will have to behave with my diet – so no more ordering 2 desserts because I can’t make my mind up which one I fancy the most !! (yes, that really did happen on my last visit to the Pub !! And I wonder why my Stomach has been protesting. What a muppet…..) If anything, my focus will be more on setting up my New Index Spreadbets System which I talk about more below. Blog Slate The improvement in my physical state is thankfully leading to a situation (fingers crossed of course !!) that I can return to some sort of my ‘normal’ life and writing things like Educational blogs can become a regular feature once again. Of course I have the Lok n’Store LOK blog to crack on with but despite the long wait for this one, something else has sneaked its way into my thoughts and I will most likely prioritise that particular one and in theory that shouldn’t take me too long once I am better and firing on all rusty cylinders. My latest obsession is around an idea I have had to use the long-term steady Returns of Indexes to create a Spreadbet ‘System’ where I use one Index (most likely the FTSE100 because it is the one I am most familiar with that suits the requirements such as low Margin, low Spread and ability to trade Out of Hours). I put out a string of Tweets about this in recent days and I have been stress-testing the concept in my mind and via some TXTs with mates who are far more clever than me; and as yet I have found nothing that would make the System unviable. My intention is to start using the System in anger on a very small scale in the near future. I have a dormant City Index Account and I plan to fire that up again and use it solely for this purpose. I want to keep this System entirely separate from my usual Spreadbetting activities (so that I can easily work out how well the System is performing and the outcomes are not clouded by contributions and detractions from other positions), and I have about £500 sat in that Account doing absolutely nothing. If it works as I think it will, then it will result in a System which needs an extremely low amount of effort and throws off a nice stream of Cash (there is one Long FTSE100 Trade that runs forever and then just occasional small Hedge Trades on the same Index) and will involve low and controlled levels of Risk and at the same time should produce at least a 40% CAGR and in truth, I suspect it might even be a bit higher. And the beauty is that this sort of thing is hugely scalable so I will try it out small for a long time before committing to a much larger Exposure. So my intention is to create a Blog purely about this New System as soon as I can and doing so will help clarify my thinking and iron out any glitches – but with it being so simple it is hard to see anything I have not thought about. On top of that I need to update the ‘Little Black Book’ page and will try to do that ASAP and of course I need to add the HTML Code to get TPI 49 Podcast appearing as a Widget on the ‘Twin Petes Investing’ page. Preparation for my New System Blog In order to understand the blog I will write soon, you need to thoroughly understand how I use Spreadbets and how to Hedge. If you listen to the recent Podcasts TPI 47 and TPI 48 I explain it quite a bit on those and if you read the blog underneath from the ‘Blog Index List’ Archive then you should be well prepared. The ‘Related Blogs’ section at the end is worth reading as well: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/yet-more-thoughts-on-hedging Note, this blog came out a lot later than the others – so it might be best to go straight to the bottom and read the ‘How to Spreadbet’ one first and then read the others on Hedging etc. and then to read the actual Blog I included the link to. Latest Podcast TPI 49 TPI 49 came out on Friday (if you hit the ‘Subscribe’ button on your chosen Podcast Platform, then it will probably push the new ones to you – it is FREE to do) and you can hear it on Soundcloud here: https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-49-futr-tsla-vod-bt-dgi9-air-pcf-ftse-btc-doge-insg-dia-ai And you can hear it on YouTube here: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=twin+petes+investing+on+youtube&docid=13907451262020&mid=25C7BE7B40D9FF96685425C7BE7B40D9FF966854&view=detail&FORM=VIRE As always you can find the ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcasts on pretty much all the big platforms, and you will find them at the ‘Conkers Corner’ channel on the likes of Apple, Audioboom, Spotify, YouTube, Overcast, Google+, Amazon and probably a few others. You can shout at that Alexa thing as well to find it. You can also go to the ‘Twin Petes Investing Podcast’ page on my Website WD2 and there are all the details there and these sort of nifty ‘widget’ things which allow you to play the Podcasts directly from my Website page. Having said that, it is quite often during the following week that I get around to adding the latest one to that page. Nasdaq 100 All the Charts I show are taken from the excellent SharePad software I use and if you click on the images then they should get a bit bigger on your screen (I recommend you read these Blogs on a big screen rather than just a Fone – there is a lot of detail to be seen). I know some Readers actually look at their Charts on SharePad or whatever method they use as they read through my blogs. If you fancy using SharePad or ShareScope yourself, then you can get 1 month’s Free Data if you go to the ‘Subscribe’ page on their website and then select the Product you want, and then you should see a ‘Promo Code’ box and if you type ‘twinpetes’ into that box, then the discount will apply. You can also get this by clicking on the Adverts that are all over my websites. I get a small payment for introducing you, so thank you very much !! (it’s just a shame I can’t spend it on beer at the moment…..) https://www.sharescope.co.uk/ I noticed also that SharePad/ShareScope have updated the landing page on their website and there is much better detail regarding the capabilities and features of their software now. I am kicking off with the Nasdaq 100 because I put an extremely small Short on it a few days ago (see my ‘Trades’ page on WD1 for details) and obviously I need to keep a close eye on this because I will soon need to make a decision whether or not to add to the Short or to get out of it. Hedges are best used for short periods of time I find. I also have a Small Short on the FTSE100 and with that one I suspect I might just end up closing it out soon and perhaps taking a small Loss, but that is fine because that is how Hedges work (I will have made considerably more on the Long Stocks and Spreadbets). It is always best practice to start with longer timeframes when looking at Charts and then to drill inwards. However, to me the 13/21 Day EMA Crosses are one of the best and most reliable Signals there is, and this suits the kind of timeframes I am working on. My Chart below has a Black Arrow and this is pointing to where there was a ‘Bear Cross’ on the EMAs (Exponential Moving Average) and this means the Black and ‘Faster’ 13 Day EMA Line crossed down below the Red and ‘Slower’ 21 Day EMA Line. Such Bear Crosses tend to mean a sustained period of falls when they Trigger in a very clean manner (as this one has done). The only situation where these Bull and Bear Crosses are unreliable, is when a Market is choppy and moving sideways, where you get one Signal and then it quickly changes to the opposite Signal etc. For this reason, I find it is best to wait a few days just after a Cross is triggered, to see whether or not it will reverse very quickly. At the moment, the Nasdaq100 is very much in ‘Bear Mode’ and this keeps me Short.
This next Chart is very interesting and is proper ‘Long-Term’ stuff. My Chart is of the Weekly Candles but that is not really relevant at this timeframe, and it goes back as far as SharePad will go (about 18 years in this case). Note my Green Line (marked by my Green Arrow) and how this was the Trend Support Line for a long period of time (about 11 years) and then look at the steep Uptrend encapsulated in my Red Ellipse – this is an incredible rise and does make the Nasdaq 100 look rather precarious.
I don’t for one minute think it will do this, but just imagine the carnage if it fell back to that Green Support Line !! If you are so minded, you could run the Fibonacci Levels on this Chart and that would give a sense of how far a drop could be – I suspect we could easily drop back to 11000 or even 10000 if the mood changed really badly. I don’t foresee this now, but I am nervous about the Autumn when we nearly always get a heavy sell-off.
On the next Chart we are still on Weekly Candles and I have Zoomed in on the Chart above and faded out the Red Line of the Ellipse a bit. I have now drawn in 2 Black Lines but I am struggling to get a good fit to show the Support and Resistance Lines. However, the bottom Support Line which I have pointed at with my Black Arrow, is the best fit I can come up with.
If I am right with how I have placed this Line, then my small Blue Ellipse is marking how the Nasdaq 100 has been testing this Support Line and if it fails significantly, then we could see more falls. I would say the real test is the 12000 level – if that goes, then it will get ugly.
On my next Chart I have zoomed in again and this time I have deleted the Black Lines (I am embarrassed about them !!) and again we are still on the Weekly Candlesticks. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a sort of Hammer shape Candle from last week and note how it found Support almost bang on 13000 and on the week before, 13000 was also solid Support. I think it is highly likely that the Nasdaq 100 will try to turn up off this Candle.
In the bottom window on the Chart below, we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the Weekly Nasdaq 100. On a Reading of RSI 58 where my Black Arrow is, this is not a high level and is not Overbought nor Oversold. However, if you look to the left, there have been several instances where the RSI has continued to fall from here and the Nasdaq 100 Price with it.
I had actually finished with this Chart but then I noticed something else so I have amended it and deleted the original image I had and replaced it with this one. Now we have a Blue Sloping Line (marked by my Blue Arrow) and note how this was pointing down whilst the Price marked by my Red Ellipse was moving up – that is a classic ‘Bearish RSI Divergence’ and a warning that something here was unsustainable in the big and sharp run up.
In the next bottom window we have the RSI for the Daily. On a reading of RSI 50 this is bang on Neutral and neither Oversold nor Overbought. There are some theories that I find mostly pretty useless about whether or not an RSI is moving up or moving down, but I don’t take much notice.
Note on this one we have a Bearish RSI Divergence as well (which makes sense because Days are in effect subsets of Weeks).
This next one is a bit of a challenge for me. My Chart has the Daily Candles for the Nasdaq 100 and the Pink Zone marks the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Blue Arrow is pointing at a big Down Candle from Friday which appears Bearish and thus, straightforward to interpret. Note also that it fell from the Top Bollinger Band at about 13574, which is now Resistance.
But if only life was that simple. If you combine the Candle from Friday with the nice White Up Candle from Thursday, then that could arguably be a ‘Bearish Piercing Line’ pattern but the problem here is that the Down Candle of the Second Day, must Close below the Midpoint of the previous Up Candle. However, in this case, it is pretty much bang on the Midpoint – so goodness knows what that means. On the flipside, rather confusingly, it could be a ‘Bullish Thrusting Line’ 2-day pattern (look them up in your ‘Candlestick Charting for Dimwits’ that you bought from my Bookshop) and see if you can figure it out. For a Bullish Thrusting Line, the Black Second Candle needs to Close above the Midpoint – goodness knows if this is one. The fact it hit the Upper Band and then fell back, suggests to me that is it most likely the Bearish Piercing Line. To the downside, the Midpoint Line (Red Line, Red Arrow) is at about 13290 and could act as Support, and then we have the Bottom Band at 13000. There is then a wide Zone of Support from the congestion in the middle of my Chart, and this takes us down to 12200. To the upside, 13800 looks like difficult Resistance.
Brent Oil Comp
I won’t spend ages on this one, but I like to look at it because it can have an effect on the FTSE100 because of the Oil Majors having such a big weighting in the Index. My Chart below has the Daily Candles and my Black Arrow is pointing to how the Black 13 Day EMA Line is very near the Red 21 Day EMA Line and if we get a ‘Bear Cross’, that would not be good to see. The Candle from Friday (the big White Up one just below my Black Arrow) suggests that Brent Oil Comp might be able to rise from here and there is Resistance around $68 and $70 and then the recent Peak where my Black Ellipse is at $71.4. To the downside, there is Support at $64.5 from Friday and then down around $60 looks pretty strong. If the Price can rise now, then it might be able to avoid a 13/21 Day EMA Bear Cross.
I wasn’t going to show anything else but this is useful. Here we have the Daily Candles for Brent Oil Comp and it looks like it is moving up off the Bottom Bollinger Band and the Midpoint Line (Red Line, Red Arrow) is at $68 and may be Resistance.
FTSE100
As I mentioned earlier, I have a small Short on this one to act as a bit of Hedge as we go into the often shaky May/June period (as I mentioned on the Podcast TPI 49, June is actually quite often a bad month historically). My Chart below has the Monthly Candles. However, the Candle for May is not yet valid because we have a week or so to go for it to complete, however, as it stands now (where my Blue Arrow is pointing) it is a ‘Long Tails Doji’ and this could easily be a Turning Point Down. If the FTSE100 does nothing much for the next week or so, then we could have a potential concern. A consideration here is that it is a Bank Holiday week so Volumes are likely to be low and this can mean plenty of volatility and big gains as well as big drops.
Next we have the Weekly Candlesticks for the FTSE100. My Blue Arrow is pointing to the Candle for last week and this is a bit of a Hammer sort of shape and suggests the FTSE100 could rise off this but the key thing is how Support and Resistance play out.
To the downside there is Support from Friday at 6897 (call it 6900) and below that 6823 is quite important. There is then a lot of Support below that. To the upside, there is Resistance at 7164 in particular and my Black Box in the top right-hand corner of the Screen shows a Zone of Support right up to the All Time High up around 7900. A Breakout over 7164 would be a Bullish event.
Please ignore the mess on this next Chart, but all I am interested in here is the Green Arrow which marks a Bull Cross on the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines and note this is still now in force. Also, it is worth standing back and admiring the predictive power of the Bull Cross Signal which has so far delivered a Return of about 350 Points………….
In the bottom window on the Chart below we have the RSI for the Weekly FTSE100. On a Reading of RSI 59 this is not all that high but if you look to the left, it has often turned down from Levels near this – I don’t expect that much, but it is possible.
That might seem paradoxical because I have a Short running. However, my Short is just a Hedge for a short-term period and I am talking a bit longer term when looking at the Weekly RSI levels.
In the bottom window on the next Screen we have the RSI for the Daily. On a Reading of RSI 57 this is not high at all.
Next we have the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 with the Bollinger Bands. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Hammer shape Candle from Friday but it is not a great context (Hammers should ideally follow a sustained fall) and note how it Opened and Closed bang on the Red Bollinger Midpoint Line.
My Black Arrow is pointing at a Bearish Shooting Star Candle from Tuesday last week and that hit Resistance at 7100. The bottom Bollinger Band is at about 6915 and could be Support. OK, that’s it for this week. I am a bit nervous about being Short on the FTSE100 when the 13/21 Day EMAs are in Bull Mode and I might Close that out early in the coming week. We shall see. Have a great week and try to enjoy the sunshine which I heard a rumour is on the way. Cheers, WD.
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