For several years now I have been attending a very good little Conference thing that Shares Magazine and Cenkos organise in Islington at the Business Design Centre (same place as the Master Investor Show), and I have signed up to show my face there again in 2020. It is on Tuesday 11th February and is FREE to attend which of course is always welcome, and there are usually quite a few Companies attending and you get presentations by them and they usually have a Stand outside as well. It is in a side room at the BDC but is still quite large and it’s a very pleasant event I find.
From the list of Companies on the website I particularly would like to talk with DUKE to really figure out what they do and I note that IXI are there and also VEL who have had a torrid time as a listed business but might have potential hidden away underneath. I have just spotted that MANO will be there as well which might be interesting.
Here is a Link to book your ticket and I found that when I clicked one of the bits to order my ticket it didn’t work but there is a bit in the text that says ‘click here’ and that worked fine. See you there !!
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/growth-innovation-forum-2020-1 Last Week As ever it was a ‘funny old week’ but I managed to eke out a gain of 1% on my Portfolio so I am quite happy. The Indexes were all over the place as usual and there was some impact from the Short positions I have but the biggest contribution was from my Stocks and on Friday there was a lot of Blue across my Portfolio and clearly this was very beneficial. My attention has been on trying to Close out the S&P500 Short I have because the recent Break-out to new All Time Highs is really bullish and I don’t want to keep fighting this trend. It makes little sense to me from a fundamentals viewpoint but the technicals (charts) tell us it is going up. I am trying to be tactical and get out on a bit of a dip but so far I have not managed to push the Close button – it may happen soon although ideally a nice Pullback is what I would love. In terms of my FTSE100 Short I am quite happy leaving it on with the General Election coming up soon and from what the Polls are suggesting it looks like the Tories are going to win and the question really is around what size of Majority they can get. The reality is that most of the public have really had enough of the ongoing Brexit farce and want something settled. Jo Squirrel is not in the running to be Prime Minister and Comrade Corbyn just offers lots more uncertainty and delay and the public have wised up to his crazy Spending plans and it simply won’t wash. My assumption is that the Markets will like a Tory win because it is the best way of things calming down and getting some leadership and direction for the UK and this is likely to mean a higher £ and that might drag on the FTSE100 – although even that is impossible to be certain of. We’ll see how it all plays out but a stronger pound would probably be good for smaller Stocks as well – and of course such Stocks will like some certainty with regards to the Economic and Political backdrop on top. The Global Economic picture still looks very wobbly and yet also quite opaque. There seems to be many mixed signals with a lot of weak Economic Data coming out and also some more positive stuff – such as better Manufacturing Numbers from Germany recently. As always I will keep an eye on ‘The Big Picture’ and it won’t surprise me if we see more Interest Rate Cuts across the Globe and probably some more Monetary Tricks like QE etc. This is especially likely in Europe where even an improving Germany may struggle to mask the troubles in the South. This coming week might be quiet as it is Thanksgiving on Thursday I think and that is likely to keep volumes low in the US. This will of course be particularly the case as we get to the tail end and Friday could be even more ‘weird’ than they often usually are. In line with the Blog I put out a few days ago on the Video Gaming sector, I am keen to buy a Stock from these but that may be a few weeks away. I have some Cash kicking around to buy something or other and I am still keen on Gateley GTLY; yet undecided if this fits my Income Portfolio or not – my main reservation being around its size as it is a relatively small stock. On the flipside, doing Soliciting should be quite defensive and that is ideal for a low risk, low activity, boring, Income Portfolio. Going forwards, and this will be more in 2020, I want to identify some other Stocks for my Income Portfolio and I keep coming back to Tate & Lyle TATE and I also wonder if Morrisons MRW would be good – Supermarkets are largely defensive and I used to hold Sainsburys SBRY so it would make some sense. And there are Stocks I already hold which I would like more of – in particular LVCG and CLIN stand out and I am tempted by more FEVR after the positive Update from last week and I suspect the Markets will start viewing this one more favourably now. Blog Slate As I mentioned above, on Thursday night I issued the first part of a two-parter about the Video Gaming sector as I am looking to choose a Stock to do more detailed and thorough research on with a view to buying it in the very near future. So far I have looked at TM17, KWS and FDEV and to be honest I think I could buy any of those three and probably do quite well !! In Part 2 I will be looking at the likes of SUMO and CDM and any others I can think of but again these strike me as very attractive businesses, although you would probably not call any “cheap”. I have a busy week ahead as I am going to see Sophie Ellis-Bextor on Wednesday night at The Anvil in Basingstoke, which is a cracking little venue and fortunately the Wheelchair area there is in almost the perfect position and quite near the front yet also raised up and near the exit door if I need to nip out etc. On Friday I am pretty sure I will be in the Pub !! Despite these constraints I will try to get Part 2 written and published and if I fail to manage this then I am sure I have a few decent Blog Drafts lying around so something should get issued later in the week as usual. I also have lots of new Blog Ideas for me to write and I just need to magic up some time to get on with these. Last night I updated the ‘Little Black Book’ which sits on WD2 (the website you are reading this on !!) and this has lots of Stock Ideas that you might find useful. I need to update the ‘Weekly Performance’ page but this will now be for the two months of October and November so in theory I should get on with this at the start of December. Blast from the Past This one comes from March 2017 and it could be a good refresher for Readers. As always, if you go to the ‘Blog Index List’ page which again sits on WD2, then you can see the full list of the Blogs I have written over the last 5 years (wow !! It always shocks me to think it has been that long) and the ‘Educational’ ones all have links so you can locate them dead simple: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/how-i-manage-so-many-stocks Let’s look at a few Charts then………. S&P500 As I am tying to close out on a Short here, this is probably the most interesting Index for me at the moment. Oh, I must just mention that all these ScreenShots come from the excellent SharePad Software I subscribe to and if you click on the images they ought to get bigger so you can see more detail. Starting off we have the Weekly Candlesticks for the S&P500 and my Blue Arrow is pointing to a Doji Candle from last week and this could be a ‘Bearish Harami’ sort of pattern and mean a drop back is quite possible. Note we had 6 White Up Candles before this so that means 6 weeks of gains, so a period of calming down is probably in order.
The next screen has the Daily Candles for the S&P500 with the Pink Zone marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Black Arrow is pointing to a sort of Hammer Candle shape from Friday and this is the third day on the trot where Support came in intraday and the Market recovered – there is good Support from Wednesday at 3091 and it is only if this fails that we might go further down. If anything, these Candles suggest a possible turn up again.
In the bottom window on the next Screen we have the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the S&P500 Daily. On a Reading of RSI 66 where my Black arrow is, it has dropped back after being quite Overbought up at around RSI 72 and it looks quite likely it can move up again. However, a Reading off RSI 66 is very high and I have seen it many times where these continuous high RSI Readings ultimately fail and we get big drawdowns. I am not saying we should worry now but don’t be shocked if December turns out quite positive as usual but we then face a day of reckoning in January.
If you look over to the left on this Screen below then you can see the Big Red Shaded Peaks on the RSI up as high as RSI 89 which is truly a very extreme reading. Inevitably in January the S&P500 tanked as you should be able to see. With this in mind I want to avoid having the S&P500 Short open during a run up in December which is quite likely, but I might then need to Short again in early January but with a Stoploss this time !!
Nasdaq Composite
The DOW and Nasdaq are mostly similar to the S&P500 so I won’t bother showing much regarding them, but I did notice on the Weekly for the Nasdaq Comp, where my Red Arrow is below, we have quite a ‘Star’ Doji and this looks quite bearish to me – in other words a possible Turning Point down with its limit up near 8600.
DAX
This is the Index of the 30 biggest German Stocks. I don’t often include it in my Weekend Blogs but there are some interesting things here and I will point them out. It is important to look for commonalities across the Major Indexes – in reality most of them move very much in sync over time and weakness or strength on one Index often means similar on the others. Below we have the Weekly Candles for the DAX and my Black Ellipse is capturing a ‘Long Tails Doji’ type Candle and after the run up for several weeks before, this could be a Turning Point down. Resistance is up at 13374 here.
Next we have the Daily Candles for the DAX and the Pink Shaded Bit marks the Bollinger Bands. My Black Arrow is pointing to a sort of Shooting Star Doji from Friday where it peaked out intraday at 13244 which is now Resistance and my Blue Arrow is pointing at the more crucial looking Shooting Star Doji from Tuesday which hit a High at 13374 – I think the DAX could be turning down off this Shooting Star.
To the immediate downside, Support is at 13043 and if that fails then we are getting a proper pullback – although it might not be particularly dramatic with plenty of levels not far below where Support can kick in.
Pound vs Dollar
I’ve mentioned this a lot on the Tweets recently so I want to just clarify what I am gibbering on about. What I am pointing out here is a ‘Bull Flag’ and on the Screen below (the Pink Zone is the Bollinger Bands – I could have chosen a better chart to draw my boxes on !!) and this is made up of the ‘Flag Pole’ which is in my Green Box and the ‘Flag’ bit (you know, the flappy clothy satiny cottony bit) which is in my Blue Box. Such Bull Flags are really worth watching out for – if and when the Price breaks-out of the top of the Flag bit, then we usually get fast runs up and the ‘height’ of the move could be the ‘height’ of the Flag Pole which is in my Green Box. So if the £/$ breaks over 1.30 then expect a strong and fast gain. This could have implications for the FTSE100 in a negative way and in a positive way for the FTSE250 and smaller stuff. I won’t show it but note that on the £/$ the 50 day Moving Average and the 200 day Moving Average are about to do a Bullish ‘Golden Cross’ – so that supports more strength in the Pound but clearly the Election is a huge factor regarding this and we might see the sideways motion of the Flag bit carry on until we get the result on the 13th December.
FTSE100
First off we have the Weekly Candles for the FTSE100. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a ‘Long Tails Doji’ from last week and this shows sideways choppiness and the FTSE100 moved between roughly 7200 and 7400 last week. The FTSE100 seems very Range-bound at the moment between 7000 and about 7450. My Red Arrow is pointing to my now infamous Red Curve which is a very feeble attempt to indicate a possible Bearish ‘Rolling Top’ pattern.
Next up I utterly love this Indicator. My Chart has the Daily Candles but I am not really looking at those here – my focus is on the Black Wavy Line which is the 13 Day Exponential Moving Average and the Red Wavy Line which is the 21 Day EMA. My Black Arrow is pointing at where we were about to get a Bear Cross but at the last minute, the strength on Friday meant that it just missed the Bear Cross and the 2 Lines are actually running parallel. This is unusual and we might have just missed the Bear Cross but we need strength in the FTSE100 right away next week to ensure this. If we go weak again in the next few days, then expect the Bear Cross to happen and this implies weeks of sogginess.
On the next Screen I have just zoomed in big time on the Screen I just showed so that you can see the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines running parallel.
Fevertree FEVR
As I mentioned earlier in this missive, I am tempted to buy more FEVR after the Update but I want to see what the Chart is saying to me. First up we have the Weekly Candles and note my Black Line marked by my Black Arrow which marks the Downtrend Resistance Line. To get really bullish about this Stock, I would like to see this Black Line broken to the upside – this implies a move over 2500p really. Next look at my Red Arrow which is pointing to a nice Big White Up Candle for last Week. Note how this ‘Turned’ off the small White Doji/Hammer Candle from the week before. This implies the Support at about 1700p is very good. However, whilst the Price of FEVR is inside my Black Resistance Line then we run the risk of more downside.
My Blue Arrow on the Screen below highlights how we are very near a Bullish Cross on the 13/21 Day EMA Lines (the Black Line is the 13 day EMA and the Red Line is the 21 day EMA). If we get such a Cross, then it would imply more upside in the short term.
Next it is the Daily Candles for FEVR. My Red Arrow is pointing to a nice White Up Candle from Friday but note this did not reach the High from Wednesday which hit Resistance at 2126p. My Blue Arrow is pointing to the Blue 50 Day Moving Average Line and this could be Resistance as well. My Black Ellipse (the huge thing in the middle) is highlighting Resistance in a Zone between about 2200p and 2600p which could be difficult to get through.
And finally we have the ‘List’ Screen for FEVR which I have setup with the Columns as you can see (note I have used the ‘Ctrl +’ function here to make the Browser image larger (use ‘Ctrl –‘ to make it smaller) and the Forecast PE for next year is 37.6 and then for 2 years out it is 33.7. These are big numbers but FEVR has been a highly rated Stock for some time and it is not totally crazy when you consider their Cash Pile and the potential in Overseas markets and the generally high level of Growth Stock valuations in the market.
OK, that’s it for tonight, good luck for the coming week and don’t do anything rash or stupid. Cheers, WD.
1 Comment
Paul Hunt
12/5/2019 01:54:04 pm
Duke provides finance and charges an interest rate in exchange for an equity sake in private companies that want to expand but can't find acceptable finance. It does involve any shares in the company being sold. Like a rights issue in a way. If the company sells out in future years they have made a return on finance and capital. Seen and spoke to them a couple of time at the Cenkos seminar.
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