It’s quite nuts when you think about it but we are only on something like day 5 of the Election Campaign period and we have just under 5 more weeks to go – it is certainly a very daunting prospect. I think we can be pretty confident this will be the most painful Election experience of our lives whatever our political viewpoint happens to be. I am convinced that Social Media, 24-hour News and the Internet have had a terrible effect on how our Politics is done but it is also clear that something has gone very badly wrong with the type of people who are somehow finding their way into the whole political game and, most unfortunately for us, often ending up as MPs.
It has been clear for ages that ‘Career Politicians’ has been a big problem for many decades now but it seems to be the case that we have far too many MPs who have never done a real job and they have gone from studying politics degrees etc. straight into Political Activist type non-jobs and eventually followed a well-trodden path into ruling over us. Or even worse, they have gone from the Trade Union structures and ended up with key roles in the Labour Party which perhaps explains much of why that particular Party has totally lost touch with the electorate that they are supposed to represent.
Just in the last few days we have had countless examples across both the Conservatives and Labour of potential candidates to be MPs getting dumped after some stupid or out of context or just plain racist comment has been dug up from Twitter or Facebook or some sort of website post somewhere in the distant past. It is like Political campaigning these days really means hunting through the past comments of your opponents and then weaponising what you find to undermine them. I’m sure there was a time when the Parties actually focused on Policies and plans for how to improve the country (well, in their own deluded ideological manner anyway) but now it all just seems a bit of a game that is played out frantically in ‘the Westminster Bubble’ and I am not sure how much the ‘normal’ electorate really takes notice. I suspect that the reality of the modern world is that most people purely see headlines and miss out on loads of the detail and political decisions are based so much on ‘fast thinking’ gut impulse rather than any real understanding of what is going on. The worst aspect of this is when I hear comments along the lines that many Voters only make their decision on what Party to vote for when they actually get in the Voting Booth – what a depressing reality that is.
I guess it could be worse – I understand that the Spanish are voting in a General Election again today and it is their 4th Election in 4 years !! So it is not just our country that has lost the plot and this kind of chaos is happening all over the Western World – crazy times indeed. With such a backdrop it does amaze me that Stockmarkets in the US have just been making new All Time Highs and European Markets have been shooting up and, if anything, the UK is lagging a bit – and I would assume this to be the case for a while as the Election and eventual situation regarding Brexit (or not) gets played out. It seems like Markets are just totally shaking off Political Risk which doesn’t really make much sense but Stockmarkets can do irrational things for long periods. Oh, and this week we have the Trump Impeachment thing going a lot more high profile and I think it is on Wednesday that this will pick up with Public Hearings as opposed to the proceedings which have been behind closed doors up until now. As always it is hard to figure out where the truth lies but it does look like Trump is in a spot of bother – although of course that was also the case with the Muller Russia Inquiry but he got away with that. I can’t see the Markets liking Trump getting thrown out of being President but with the Republicans controlling the Senate we are probably unlikely to see that although if it turns out that Trump has done some really naughty stuff then perhaps the Republicans will be shamed into Impeaching him as well. Last Week The tough run has continued for me with my Portfolio losing 0.9% for the Week and I think that has mostly resulted from strength in the US Indexes which has hurt the S&P500 Short I have running and I also took a hit on the Week on my FTSE100 Short, although there was some respite on Friday with a sizeable drop. I will look at the Charts later in this Blog and I am looking to Close the S&P500 Short soon and I am trying to time this as best I can but I am happy to keep the FTSE100 Short running whilst this Election plays out. Unfortunately, I took the hit from the Index Shorts but my Stocks didn’t offset this much – I don’t recall any particularly significant moves either up or down (actually Superdry SDRY had a nice bounce but it is not a huge position now) and it was more that stuff just seemed to drift off a bit. So my strategy is unchanged – I want to get the S&P500 Short off because an All Time High Breakout is a powerful Bullish development and I would rather not fight that any more and I am not keen to buy much in terms of Stocks. There are some top-ups I fancy but I am protecting my Cash for the time being and I see no big rush to be buying. I fancy some more LVCG at some point but I won’t be going mad on them and I fancy buying some GTLY as per the Blog I issued a few days ago. That one looks a nice boring value play and it is most definitely ‘off the radar’. I keep thinking about my Income Portfolio as I fancy more GSK and it strikes me BA. might be worth a top up as well – but I don’t have much Cash spare there anyway. I would also like to add some Stocks and take the Holdings in the Income Portfolio up to 15 ultimately (it is 12 at the moment – see my ‘Portfolios’ page) but I won’t be in a position to do this for a while I suspect and if I buy more of what I have already then the opportunity to add New Stocks is even farther away. It’s funny cos 2019 is drawing to a close with under 2 months left (strewth, that year has really shot past) yet I suspect 2020 could be another ‘fun’ one with plenty of challenges to come. On the one hand, if Boris wins we could have some machinations around Brexit and really scarily those crazy Lefties could get in and the UK would really be toast then – I suspect the ability to Short is going to come in really handy !! Mello Chiswick on Tuesday Talking of how quickly the time has shot by, we are now just days away from Mello and it should be a good giggle. I plan to be there on the Tuesday afternoon and I will be hanging around the Bar area probably from about 12.30pm onwards. If you are about then come and have a chat. If you haven’t sorted your ticket yet, the event is on Tuesday and Wednesday this coming week and there is a Discount Code going around where you can get Tickets for half price if you are quick – the Code is SC50 and you can book at the link below. https://melloevents.com/event/ These are without doubt the best Investor Events around and well worth attending. There are usually loads of decent Companies with stands and presenting and it is a superb opportunity to meet up with other Private Investors who are serious about Stocks. Blog Slate A few days ago I published the Second Part of the Gateley GTLY blogs and this is well worth reading – you should be able to find it on the recently renamed ‘Stocks & Markets’ Blog page which just so happens to be the one you are reading this on (I am trying to put all Stocks and Markets related blogs on WD2 and the Educational ones on the WD1 blog page). This coming week my intention is to finish off the Blog I am scribbling about the new IFRS16 Lease Accounting changes and in theory this should get published Thursday night or Friday night. After that I am not really sure what I will write next. I have a potential idea but I am struggling with it a bit although it is something I want to create. If I remember I will try to chat about it with some mates at Mello as this might help me structure my thoughts and set out some sort of direction for it. If that comes to nothing then I have a long list of potential ideas so I should be able to find something to work on but I tend to find that I need to feel enthusiastic about a particular topic or I struggle to get anywhere with it. I have a few things in Draft shape so I am sure I can keep the flow going. I need to update the ‘Weekly Performance’ page for October as well but I might not get a chance this week – it will be done but with the trip to Mello and some other stuff I have on I may not get the time until the following week. I keep thinking about potential new Income Stocks as I mentioned above and perhaps in coming weeks I will do some initial digging around this and create a blog – I am not promising anything on that as I am undecided how to do it but it is a potential idea that I know Readers would really like. From deep in the Blog Archives I wrote these Blogs about Targets many years ago but they are probably worth a look through: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/targets-helping-improve-your-aim-part-1-of-3 https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/targets-helping-improve-your-aim-part-2-of-3 https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/targets-helping-improve-your-aim-part-3-of-3 If you go to the ‘Blog Index List’, which you should be able to find on its own Page on this website, then you can see the full Archive of all the stuff I have written over the last 5 years with Links to all the Educational stuff. Better look at the Charts then…… S&P500 As always, the Charts are screengrabs from the superb SharePad software that I subscribe to and if you click on the images then in theory they should get larger so you can see the detail more clearly. As always it is ‘best practice’ to start with longer timeframe stuff and the Chart below is of the Weekly Candlesticks for the S&P500 and my Blue Arrow is pointing to an Up Candle from last week and this looks bullish and suggests more upside. Having said that, there is Resistance up at 3100 which might limit upside for a while.
In the bottom window on the next Chart we have the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the S&P500 Daily and where my little Black Arrow is we have a Reading of RSI 67 which is quite a high level and this suggests the upside from here in the very short term might not be much more.
Next it is one of my favourite Indicators and where my Blue Arrow is we had a ‘Bull Cross’ between the Black 13 Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the Red 21 Day EMA. This Bull Cross is still ‘in force’ and this suggests more upside although we can still get short term pullbacks on the way.
Finally for the S&P500 we have the Daily Candlesticks and the Pink Zone is marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. Where my Black Arrow is I am pointing to a White Up Candle from Friday and this looks like a ‘Bullish Engulfing’ Candle because it covers the Candle from Thursday. However, that Thursday Candle is interesting because it has the look of a Bearish ‘Shooting Star’ Candle however the strength on Friday suggests that Thursday’s Candle will be over-ridden. Having said that, Fridays are often a bit ‘funny’ and the key here really is that 3100 Resistance Level – if that gets taken out, then expect more gains.
Note also that the activity on the Candles is up near the Top Bollinger Band and that might be suggesting that the upside will be limited now but the Candles can ‘hug’ the band higher.
Nasdaq Composite
I expected the major US Tech Index to be pretty similar to the S&P500 but this Chart of the Weekly Candles has an interesting aspect because where my Red Arrow is I am pointing at a possible Bearish ‘Hanging Man’ Candle from last week. Again, like the S&P500 we had a Bullish Engulfing Candle on Friday which might show where the Nasdaq is going and it is all about that Resistance just a bit higher (8483 in this case).
FTSE100
First up the Weekly Candles and the Red Line with the Red Arrow is a throwback from a few weekends ago when I first suggested that we could have a Bearish ‘Rolling Top’ kind of pattern going on here. It is something to be aware of and to watch out for. My Black Arrow is pointing to the Candle from last week which is White and shows a gain for the week but it fell off the Highs up at 7432 and it again lines up with what I have been saying for weeks that there seems to be a Range between about 7000 at the bottom and 7450 at the top. This inability to hold the High last week has a certain bearishness about it.
Now I am focused on the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines and my Green Arrow shows a ‘Bull Cross’ and this still applies. Remember, we can still get short term pullbacks though.
Last up tonight we have the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 and the Pink Zones are marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. This is quite sweet because it is following all the Technical Analysis ‘rules’ in that we had a Big Black Down Candle on Friday where my Blue Arrow is and we fell back from a Bearish Shooting Star Candle on Thursday and note how this Shooting Star fell from the Top Bollinger Band. All very ‘textbook’ and it suggests more downside and the bottom Bollinger Band is at about 7250 so we might see Support there if it gets that low.
The Black Line at the bottom of the Chart (marked by the Black Arrow) denotes the bottom of the possible Range I talked about at about 7000 and the Green Line (Green Arrow) marks the top of the Range up near 7450. OK, that’s it for this weekend – Good Luck in the coming week and I’ll see you at Mello on Tuesday afternoon. Cheers, WD.
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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