It’s been quite a frustrating week for me on the health side of things. On top of the ongoing problems around my guts, I managed to pick up the early stages of a Pressure Sore on my left hip and as a result I spent most of the week stuck to my sofa. Thankfully the Sore was caught early but even so it still took around 5 days to improve, whereas I was hoping a couple of days would be enough.
On my abdomen thing, I finally made some tiny progress with Stoke Mandeville Hospital and my Consultant is going to put me through for an ‘Urgent’ MRI Scan. Unfortunately, the definition of ‘Urgent’ seems to mean several weeks before I actually get scanned. Could be worse I guess; it could be a Cat Scan or a Lab Test………..
I am ‘better’ though in that even though my stomachy area is very irritating, at least I can get up and about and do stuff; and in many ways that helps because keeping busy is very good at distracting me from the ongoing discomfort. It has only been 5 months after all…….
Anyway, there is good news in the sense that my Portfolio hit its All Time High on Friday and that is of course very pleasing. Last Week It’s rather nice to report that my Portfolio gained 1.5% on the week and unlike the previous 3 months of the year so far, my Portfolio actually closed on a Peak at the end of April and is looking lovely. I will update the ‘Monthly Performance’ page as soon as I can, and I am particularly keen to check the valuation on my Income Portfolio and see if that has improved much. I suspect it has done ok with a few of the Holdings rising from what I sense (although I have not checked in detail). My Strategy is the same as always – I am staying pretty much 100% Long and poised to Hedge via Index Short Spreadbets if I sense trouble ahead. However, I have fine tuned my approach in recent years and I am highly reluctant to Short unless I have very good reason. And if I do put a Hedge on, I am starting with a small Position with a view to adding if I need to. In the coming week I have quite a few Companies reporting; so it will either be a really sweet week or a total shocker I suspect !!! I have been talking on the Podcasts about how I go about Spreadbetting and it has caused quite a flurry of activity on Twitter. I do things very differently to most people and I take a long-term view with my Spreadbets and treat them the same as my Normal Stocks. If you listen to TPI 47, you can find out more details. On the next Podcast I plan to talk about this more and fill in some gaps in what I have explained already. If you go to my ‘Twin Petes Investing Podcast’ page on WD2 at the Link below, then you can find the various ways of enduring the Podcasts: https://wheeliedealer2.weebly.com/twin-petes-investing-podcasts.html Blog Slate I have not managed to do much to my websites with my ongoing health travails and I have a stack of outstanding Emails that I need to get round to. I am not getting anywhere with the LOK blog and it is extremely frustrating, but I can only do what my health allows. From Frustrating Years in the Past All the blogs I have written over recent years can be found on the ‘Blog Index List’ page on WD2. All the educational ones have Links and after a certain point in time on the list, all blogs have Links. From that list I bring you this old series which might be worth a look through – in particular because this relates to something I was gibbering about on Twitter on Saturday afternoon: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/certain-uncertainty-control-what-you-can-control-and-moving-into-cash-part-6-of-6 Here is my epic Series on Spreadbets as well. If you have found the Podcasts on Spreadbets useful, then this should help you fill in some gaping holes in your understanding of my technique: https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/how-to-use-leverage-safely-and-successfully-spreadbetting-and-cfds-part-7-of-7 On both of these Series, there are links at the bottom (or top) of these to get to the earlier Parts. Monthly Candlesticks I have been talking about these on Twitter for at least the last week or so and I am now dead eager to check how the Candles for April have formed up; because I suspect they will mostly look very Bullish. The beauty with Candles (among many other attractions) is that they smell nice and are romantic and stuff around the bathtub………oh, no, that is something different. What I am getting at is that Candles are Pixels which means that they work on any timeframe. In theory, you could apply Candlestick Charting Analysis techniques to Candles that form up over Decades or even Centuries – although with the latter you would only have about 3 Bullish Candles (sounds like ‘3 White Soldiers’ to me, which is Bullish for the 21st Century !!). So as well as such crazy Time Periods, you can use Candles for Monthly and Weekly and Daily and Hourly and right down to 1 minute or whatever you like (obviously if you go too small they react too fast – I would not use less than 15 minutes minimum for Day Trading). All the Charts I show are taken from the excellent SharePad software I use and if you click on the images then they should get a bit bigger on your screen (I recommend you read these Blogs on a big screen rather than just a Fone – there is a lot of detail to be seen). If you fancy using SharePad or ShareScope yourself, then you can get 1 month’s Free Data if you go to the ‘Subscribe’ page on their website and then select the Product you want, and then you should see a ‘Promo Code’ box and if you type ‘twinpetes’ into that box, then the discount will apply. You can also get this by clicking on the Adverts that are all over my websites. I get a small payment for introducing you, so thank you very much !! https://www.sharescope.co.uk/ I noticed also that SharePad/ShareScope have updated the landing page on their website and there is much better detail regarding the capabilities and features of their software now. Monthly Candlesticks I will run through the Monthly Candles for the Major Indexes etc. first. Dow Jones Industrials Index (DOW) The April Candle looks pretty good. It has a bit of a ‘Wick’ upwards, but it is not a nasty one like an Inverted Hammer shape where the Wick is really long and the ‘Body’ of the Candle is tiny. This looks Bullish to me. However, we must be aware that this does not prevent a Bearish Candle for May. What it does tell us is that as things stand, the probabilities are most favourable to the Rally continuing. What we need to look out for are Reversal Candles (like Inverted Hammer, Bearish Harami, Bearish Shooting Star) when the May Candle prints.
S&P500
Another Bullish one and looks better than the April Candle on the DOW.
Nasdaq 100
Yet again the Candle for April looks sweet. Note where my Red Arrow is that the Candle for February is a good example of a Bearish Shooting Star; but in that case, the Bearish Signal was not fulfilled. As a Trading point, you would use the Bearish Shooting Star as a Short Signal and place a Short Trade if the next Candle (for March) Opened down straight away. Of course, there are no guarantees that any Signal works 100% but they are a good indication of what is most likely to occur next. People who have very precise and structured ways of thinking find such ‘fuzziness’ difficult to deal with, but that is all part and parcel of the ‘Art’ side of Investing and Trading. The Nasdaq Composite Index is similar so I won’t bother showing it.
NIKKEI 225 (Japan)
This one doesn’t look so good. My Blue Arrow is pointing to the Candle for January and look how it is a bit like a Bearish Shooting Star. Next look at the February Candle; this one has a nice Up Body but fell back from the High of the month (as per the long Wick up above). The next Candle for March is a ‘Long Tails Doji’ and this can be a Reversal Candle (which means it could turn down). Finally in my Red ellipse we have a Down Body with a longer Wick upwards than below. This also doesn’t look great. The Key here is the High at 30714 which happened in February. If it can get above this then the Bulls will be let off the hook.
CAC40 (France)
Another Bullish one for April.
DAX (Germany)
Another less good one. This time we have a ‘Bearish Shooting Star’ sort of shape for April and the key here is the High at 15502. If the Bulls can get it above that then things should be fine, but if not, then 15502 could be the Turning Point Down.
FTSE100
Nice Up Candle (Blue Arrow) for April. Looks Bullish.
FTSE250
Another Bullish Candle for April. Good also that it Broke-out through the Green Horizonal Resistance.
AIM All Share
Another Bullish April Candle.
FTSE Smallcap
Looks Bullish. To be fair, the Smaller UK Indexes tend to follow the FTSE100 and FTSE250 really (this is in terms of the direction, if not in the magnitude, where the Smaller Indexes will have larger moves).
Brent Oil Composite
The key to this one is the Candle for March which is pointed at in a most rude fashion with my Blue Arrow. It is good that the Candle for April is not beneath the March one and the Bulls need to get it over the High of March which is $71.4 and they must keep it above $60. If the latter Support fails, then the Bears may get a bit grizzled.
Gold Composite
This has hope for Gold Bulls (Bugs). My Blue Arrow is pointing to a nice Up Candle for April (ignore the messy bit that follows with the small black line) and note this has swung up off the Small Doji Candle (Cotton Reel) for March. It could be that $1677 is a Turning Point Up.
OK, now I will go through on smaller Time Periods on the key Indexes I am interested in.
Brent Oil Comp Below we have the Daily Candles for Brent Oil Composite and first off please look at my Black Arrow which is marking a ‘Bull Cross’ between the Black 13 Day EMA Line (Exponential Moving Average) and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. I find these extremely useful signals on pretty much any liquid asset and such a Bull Cross (until we see a Bear Cross), usually means weeks of gains ahead. My Red Arrow is pointing at a Big Black Down Candle from Friday 30th April and this wiped out the good work done on Thursday, where the Price peaked at $68.45 which is now Resistance. Up above this, my Black Ellipse is marking more Resistance from about $70 up to $71.4 and getting over these levels would be very Bullish. To the downside, there is Support at $64 and then down where my Green Ellipse is, down to nearly $60.
Gold Composite
I wanted to look at this one because it was definitely trying to break-out of the Downtrend Channel which has been established since the Peak up near $2000; but I noticed in recent days that it was struggling and again we might have a False Breakout. Just look very quickly at the Chart below, because all I want to show here is the Downtrend Channel (marked by my Black Line at the Top and my Blue Line at the bottom). Ignore the rest and move swiftly on.
On the Chart below I have zoomed in and now my Blue Ellipse is trying to show where the Gold Comp Price tried to Break-out. The key here is $1800 and Gold Comp must crack through this if it is to break the Downtrend Channel.
My Green Arrow is pointing to a ‘Bull Cross’ between the Black 13 Day EMA Line and the Red 21 Day EMA Line. Note how the Lines are moving together and we need the Gold Comp Price to move up ASAP to avoid a ‘Bear Cross’ here. My Red Arrow is pointing to a Black Down Candle from Thursday 29th April and note how it has a Long Tail down below which hit Support at $1757.35. That is now crucial near-term Support and must hold or any hopes of the Breakout are doomed.
FTSE100
My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Small Doji Candle from last week and for the last 3 weeks, the FTSE100 has pretty much been sideways. To the immediate upside, it needs to crack 7000 and then 7040 and then the Resistance Zone in the Black Box in the Top Left-Hand Corner of my Chart comes into play; this takes us up to 7727 and then on to the All Time High at 7900. A Breakout above the ATH would be very Bullish. To the downside, there is Support at 6853 and then down to 6600. My Purple/Mauve/Pink Uptrend Support Line could help, and if that fails, there is a Zone of Support where my Black Ellipse is.
On my next Screen, please look at the Green Arrow and this is pointing at a ‘Bull Cross’ on the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines and this is still ‘in force’.
In the bottom window of my Chart below we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the FTSE100 Daily. On a Reading of RSI 63 where my Black Arrow is, this is not crazy high but it would not surprise me if we saw a bit more sideways movement and plenty of wiggling Consolidation to unwind the enthusiasm. If the Bulls do come out to play early next week, then there is ‘room’ in the RSI for it to go up a fair bit.
Last up for the FTSE100 we have the Daily Candles with the Pink Zone marking the Bollinger Bands. My Blue Arrow is pointing to an ‘Inverted Hammer’ shaped Candle from Friday and there was a similar one on Thursday. These are typical in low-volume Markets before a Bank Holiday Weekend and in the context of sideways moves, I am not sure they tell us much. It is interesting how on both Thursday and Friday, the Price fell back to the Bollinger Midpoint Line (the Red Line in the middle !!).
The Bottom Bollinger Band could be Support at about 6870.
S&P500
On the face of it, my Blue Arrow is pointing to a potentially unhelpful ‘Gravestone Doji’ sort of Candle on the Weekly for the S&P500, which doesn’t sound too welcoming. However, remember what I said about a low-volume Bank Holiday Week and it could simply be that any bearishness just means a small drop back; and in truth it would be more of a Consolidation move; which usually means more gains to come once the Market has calmed down a bit. The key here is my Uptrend Channel marked by the Parallel Black Lines (Black Arrows). As long as it stays within this Channel, there is not a lot to worry about.
I won’t show the 13 and 21 Day EMA Lines because with a strongly Bullish Market that has just made a new All Time High, these Lines will always be in Bull Mode.
In the bottom window below, my Black Arrow is pointing to a Reading of RSI 70 on the Relative Strength Index for the Daily S&P500 and this is very high (Overbought). It needs to unwind and this is consistent with the Weekly Candle which is rather gruesome. It could just need to go sideways for a while to unwind this high RSI or just a healthy small pullback.
In the bottom window on my next Screen we have the RSI for the Weekly S&P500. Where my Black Arrow is we are talking about RSI 68 and this is very high although not extreme. This suggests the Rally might struggle in coming weeks/months if we see the RSI up near, say, RSI 75 to RSI 80. I will keep an eye on this.
Finally for this rather epic but picturesque Blog, here are the Daily Candles for the S&P500 with the Pink Zone marking the Bollingers. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Black Splodge which is a Doji Candle from Friday. Note how it is sat on the Bollinger Midpoint Line (the Red Line). The Bottom Bollinger should be Support at about 4130.
OK, that’s it this week. Good luck with the coming battles and hopefully we will see some Sunshine so the Pub Gardens can be fully exploited. Cheers, WD.
2 Comments
Kevin S
5/3/2021 01:21:51 pm
Thanks Pete, another great update - have you ever done any back-checking to see how your predictions fared on a Friday night? I'd be interested to see how they fared across a week.
Reply
WheelieDealer
5/24/2021 01:53:17 pm
Hi Kevin,
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