I’m sure most of us have been feeling the heat this weekend but it is nice really and I particularly like the evenings when things have cooled down a bit but we still very much have the summer vibe. After the rather weird year we have had so far, I get a real sense that I want to enjoy what we have left of the better weather and it won’t be long until Autumn creeps up on us.
The downside with Autumn of course is that it often brings weakness in the Markets and that can start in August and historically September is the worst month on average. With the strength we have seen, particularly in the US and on the Nasdaq, it seems that we could easily be set-up for a bit of a drop not that far away and I am very mindful that this is quite possible (and in fact I would say it is highly likely). I am not expecting a massive sell-off like we had back in March though, this would just be some sort of Correction and to be frank it is very much needed because a lot of stuff has run up too far, too fast.
I am starting this one on Saturday Evening because I intend to nip down to Swindon tomorrow to meet up with my brother who I have not seen since all this Lockdown silliness started. Hopefully I can get it all done tonight, but there are some very interesting Charts and I really must do them justice.
I had a really pleasant afternoon yesterday (and made even better when I got home and saw that my Portfolio was up nicely !!) as I finally got around to visiting the White Hart in Winkfield which is my usual haunt and of course it is where we hold the WheelieBash (more news on that in a tad).
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY. I HAVE A LARGE PORTFOLIO AND I USE DIVERSIFICATION TO SPREAD RISK ALONG WITH TRICKS LIKE HEDGING AND OCCASIONALLY BY THE USE OF STOPLOSSES - IF YOU BUY ANY STOCK YOU REALLY SHOULD FOCUS ON HOW IT FITS IN WITH THE REST OF YOUR PORTFOLIO AND KEEP RISK MANAGEMENT AT THE FOREFRONT OF EVERYTHING YOU DO. BE AWARE THAT ALL INVESTORS/TRADERS GET THINGS WRONG AND MANY STOCK SELECTIONS WILL WORK OUT BADLY. ALSO BEAR IN MIND THAT WE HUMANS HAVE A PSYCHOLOGICAL BIAS WHERE WE EASILY GIVE A POSITIVE VIEW TO SOMETHING WHERE LOTS OF INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE.
If you have not read Part 1 yet you can find it here:
As is always the way, I wrote the text regarding the ‘Final Results’ a few days ago, thinking that would complete this section. Then of course, lo and behold, out comes another ‘Trading Update’ on 14th July 2020 which you can read here:
This is fairly short as you would expect really, but it’s pretty decent. The stand outs for me are:
I am really tight for time tonight after a full weekend of MotoGP with Practice, Qualifying and the Race, and I even managed to go round a mate’s house last night which was much more like the ‘old days’ rather than the ‘new normal’ (yuk).
Markets have been really dragging in recent weeks and the direction from here is really unclear. My hunch is that we will avoid a Big Drop but of course it is impossible to know at this point in time and with the fall back in the US Markets just looking like a fairly normal pullback, there is little evidence in the Charts that something nasty is just around the corner.
I had a great day out fishing on Friday and it was so nice to do something that was almost ‘normal’ and to cement that we even went to a Pub Garden afterwards - although the place was a bit of a dump and the words ‘Social Distancing’ had little meaning !!
The beer was lush though so I am not moaning and the sun was out so life was very acceptable for a nice change. We had an excellent day by the pond with loads of nice Carps coming out and they were a decent flow – whenever I go fishing I want to see fish but I don’t want too many so that it becomes a chore and I don’t want so few that I get bored and fed up.
Of course the big news of the week was the spanking that Boohoo BOO got and that was particularly painful for me as it was one of my largest positions before the drop. Anyway, as per various discussions and tweets I am not selling and I expect the whole fuss to blow over in time. I have seen such occurrences far too many times before and won’t be falling for the inducements of Bears to scare me out of my stock.
Peter @Conkers3 and myself did the ‘TPI Live’ session at Mello Virtual on Friday and unfortunately what was supposed to be a 45 minute event got cut to just half an hour due to over-runs and suchlike. That was a pity, but it was a fun thing to do and I enjoyed using a new format to, in effect, do a Podcast and that was certainly a useful experience. If you have access to the Mello Virtual event and did not get around to seeing us on Friday, then I believe it will be there as a recording soon and you can see it for 30 days (something like that anyway).
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY. I HAVE A LARGE PORTFOLIO AND I USE DIVERSIFICATION TO SPREAD RISK ALONG WITH TRICKS LIKE HEDGING AND OCCASIONALLY BY THE USE OF STOPLOSSES - IF YOU BUY ANY STOCK YOU REALLY SHOULD FOCUS ON HOW IT FITS IN WITH THE REST OF YOUR PORTFOLIO AND KEEP RISK MANAGEMENT AT THE FOREFRONT OF EVERYTHING YOU DO. BE AWARE THAT ALL INVESTORS/TRADERS GET THINGS WRONG AND MANY STOCK SELECTIONS WILL WORK OUT BADLY.
I have been looking at Bango BGO for quite some time and I even used to hold the Shares probably around 10 years ago. Back then I found it a bit frustrating and I can’t even remember what the outcome of my buying back then was, but it strikes me that BGO are in a much nicer place these days and the huge gains in computing power and network speed etc. have conspired to make their offerings a lot more relevant and valuable. This ‘faster’ technology has also enabled an increasingly important aspect of their offering around Data Analysis and targeted marketing.
In the context of what I am about to write, Readers who are fans of the legendary ‘Prog Rock’ band Rush will understand my title with reference to the front cover of their mid ‘80s Album of the same name…..
On Friday of this coming week, the 10th July, if all goes to plan on the technology front, then the Twin Petes will be appearing with a session in the afternoon at ‘Mello Virtual’ which you can find out about here and you can get a ticket. If you use the code MV20975 you can get 50% off and you will be able to watch for 30 days afterwards.
This download pdf from the website explains a bit more regarding the technology side of things and it doesn’t look too complicated:
**SINCE WRITING MUCH OF THE TEXT BELOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT, I HAVE BEEN THINKING THINGS OVER AND WILL MOST LIKELY CLOSE THE LONG POSITION I HAVE ON THE FTSE100 AND DO A SMALL SHORT ON THE S&P500 VIA SPREADBETS AND I MIGHT DO THIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IF I CAN ONCE IGINDEX REVERTS TO ‘NORMAL’ BETS RATHER THAN THOSE WEEKEND THINGS. OF COURSE PEOPLE WITHOUT SPREADBET ACCOUNTS CAN SHORT THE S&P500 USING THE XPSP ETF AND THE FTSE100 USING XUKS. I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANYTHING AND IT IS UP TO READERS TO MAKE UP THEIR OWN MINDS WHAT THEY DO.**
The Markets certainly seem a bit moody at the moment – last week was tough going and not hugely much fun. As you will see in a bit, my Portfolio was down a tad and we had quite a drop in the US Markets on Friday and there is certainly a sense that a bit of a pullback is coming.
The US seems to be getting a lot more Virus Cases by the day and clearly the chaotic approach to Lockdown and any kind of Social Distancing doesn’t give anyone an impression that the US Authorities, at any level of governance, are in control. If this gets worse and we start getting panics over hospital capacity etc., then it is highly likely it becomes a big issue and it could impact on Markets.
That was quite a week. I remember Monday Morning when the FTSE100 opened below 6000 and things were looking a little bit wobbly but by the end of the day there had been a decent recovery; and by the time we closed on Friday night it had turned out a pretty good week. There are some short-term negative signs from the US but we need to be careful with price action on a Friday because it is often skewed by low volumes and choppiness. In the bigger picture things still seem bullish and that is certainly the stance I am playing to.
I got a bit carried away and actually bought a new Stock last week (see my ‘Trades’ page on WD1 for all details on my Trades) which was Bango BGO and if you tune in to the latest TPI Podcast, which we released a couple of days ago, then you can hear more about it. I am in the process of writing a ‘Buy Rationale’ Blog about BGO and that will probably appear in the next few weeks. I see BGO as having a lot of potential upside if I am patient and it is in the sweet theme of Mobile Payments which means I am tacking with a strong tailwind.
Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogs
These tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!).