Again I will make this short and sweet. Last week was a bit ‘sub-optimal’ with me receiving 2 Profit Warnings (BOO and IOM) in the latter 2 days. This hit my performance and the Hedges did not offset the hit as I had hoped, but of course this is all part of the Great Game and it is just something to mentally put in the past, and to keep moving forwards and sticking to the Strategy/Approach.
October can be an iffy month with many of the classic Market Crashes of the past having taken place during this month. However, I don’t expect anything like this and the weakness we are suffering now is pretty normal and I see it as a prelude to more gains ahead. We may however see more sector rotation as many Stocks have got daftly overvalued.
Valuation ALWAYS matters.
Brent Oil Composite
All the Charts I show are taken from the excellent SharePad software I use and if you click on the images then they should get a bit bigger on your screen (I recommend you read these Blogs on a big screen rather than just a Fone – there is a lot of detail to be seen). I know some Readers actually look at their Charts on SharePad or whatever method they use as they read through my blogs.
My health still stinks so I will make this super speedy and just focus on getting the Charts considered.
Before that, we put out Podcast TPI 58 on Friday and you can find it under the ‘Conkers Corner’ Channel on most Platforms and you can find it on Soundcloud and YouTube below:
I don’t want to spend ages on this blog so hopefully I can stick to the key stuff and keep it short.
Talking of Shorts, I increased the Hedges I have via FTSE100 Spreadbets in recent days and you can see this on my ‘Trades’ page on WD1. I even placed my first Short on the Test System – I really hope we get a proper drop because it is essential that I try out how well the System Rules work to protect when we get a significant fall. We have designed the System to be infinitely scalable – but I don’t want to scale up much unless I have had the opportunity to test the System and Rules in a real-life big market sell-off. Ideally I will increase the scale from Jan 1st 2022.
I have had yet another very tough and frustrating week regarding my health, but thankfully I am a bit better now and able to knock out this Blog. As time always does, we have rapidly counted down to the WheelieBash and it is now just a handful of days away. It promises to be a very useful and fun event and we are on target to have the largest one ever. In fact, because of the terrific response, I am planning to do two WheelieBashes next year – one in May/June and one in September as per normal.
The current thinking is that I will establish a date in May or June and tell everyone what that is, and people can decide whether they want to go to WB1 or WB2. Once we get nearer the date of the first one, if there are any spaces left, I will let anyone come along – which means some lucky peeps might be able to attend both Bashes. We are limited to 60 at each event so I want to give more people the chance to attend at least one of them. We are limited by the size of the boozer, but I think that if the event got any bigger, it would become too big anyway and lose some of it’s relaxing and friendly feel.
Well, the way I am feeling today I certainly don’t feel like much progress is happening, but I need to see the bigger picture, after 9 months of not being right.
My action of going up to Stock Mandeville Hospital didn’t exactly cause a rapid reaction, but at least I have eventually received a report from my Consultant that tells me the pain would not be caused by my Spine, after the MRI Test yonks ago.
It is good to rule something out (although I do intend to request a discussion with my Consultant about the Spine), but it means I need to get snotty with my GP Surgery and get something happening. I hope to be able to talk to them tomorrow, but getting a GP Appointment these days is harder than trying to make money with a Portfolio of crappy AIM Stocks.
Bit of a tedious week for me with firstly a small pressure sore on my hip, confining me to the sofa until I was able to escape it on Friday, but also as a consequence (because I am sure the posture on my sofa irritates the problem in my abdomen area), I was in quite a bit of pain and that was irritating me.
I have always had in the back of my mind that if things really got to a limit, then I would go up to Stoke Mandeville Hospital near Aylesbury, and I would present myself in Accident & Emergency and cause a bit of fuss. Anyway, that option has never really appealed because it would no doubt mean a long wait, but on Thursday it hit me that instead of rocking up at A&E, I could just show my face (well, the bit that wasn’t covered by a filthy mask) at the Spinal Outpatients Department and try to get something happening via that route.
What a strange week we just had. Markets were whacked hard on Monday but by Friday had recovered a lot of the damage and the US Markets even romped on to New All Time Highs. Quite crazy but I guess low summer volumes result in a high degree of illiquidity and this was borne out in the silly gyrations.
It is nice to have some decent weather but I am typing this bit on Sunday afternoon and it is pretty overcast and almost chilly today. Hopefully that will turn again next week and we can all get soaking up some sun again.
I am extremely pleased to be able to report that last night (I started typing this on Saturday night) I went round the corner to spend the evening with some old friends and I ate a yummy pork burger, a pork banger and a chicken wanger. That is the first meat that has passed my lips for about 2 months and my goodness it was lush. I also knocked back at least 3 pints of booze and didn’t roll home (I was rather wobbly !!) until after 2am.
Even more sweetly, I actually feel fine today and the pain from my stomach is at a very low level and almost entirely gone. It is so nice to be able to say that my health is getting better without a doubt and I am hoping that the new box of lansoprazole tablets, that I should receive in the next few days, is the last lot I need to take. I know several people who take these pills as a daily thing but I am eager to get off them because despite not noticing any side effects, I generally have an aversion to shoving chemicals into me unless I have no other choice. Beer is a different matter obviously because that is a plant-based health product.
I’m back !!!
It has been a pretty difficult few weeks with my health playing up big time, and I have not been able to sit at the keyboard and bash out any blogs. Thankfully things are getting better and I am starting to think that the diagnosis (more like pure guess !!) by my Doctors, that it is acid burning my stomach wall, may actually be correct. Fortunately, the pain is much more subdued now and I am very pleased to say that on Tuesday, I actually felt more like my old self and had no pain at all. On the flipside, that didn’t last and today (Saturday night) it is at a low level which is bearable, but not perfect obviously.
I finally managed to get an extra Spreadbet Account with igIndex and I started the Test System for my Index Spreadbets some days ago (incredibly, I still haven’t heard a peep out of CityIndex !!). Anyway, a couple of nights ago I looked at how far the FTSE100 dropped in March 2020 and worked out it was 36% at the worst level of Drawdown. You can see details of the Test System on my ‘Trades’ page on WD1.
It struck me I need to design my Rules and my System so that it can cope with a 36% Drawdown in its stride (although in practice, a 36% Drawdown would be extremely rare) and then it also hit me that really I should design for 50% Drawdown which I think some small Rule Changes will ‘easily’ manage and be mostly mechanical and just need a small degree of Hedging and the timing of those could be quite sloppy and not hurt Returns too much.
Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogs
These tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!).