I mentioned on Twitter a while ago that I was having some grief in my Personal Life or words to that effect and this meant that I couldn’t issue a Weekend Markets Blog last Week. Anyway, things have improved and I can just about bash something out Tonight and I desperately want to ‘analyse’ the Index Charts because last Week was quite messy and I suspect this could be the start of ‘The Big One’ although it does seem a bit early but that makes some sense with fears of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit and of course a slowing Global Economy and Trump continually slapping Tariffs on China. However, I will try to keep this fairly short but that is obviously not in my nature !!
You may recall I had some really difficult problems last October where I cut my Right Hip and it took about 5 weeks to heal and was really frustrating. Anyway, this time I got some damage to my other Hip which came from difficulties with using the Loo which meant I was sat on my Boney Arse for far too long and this caused a Pressure Sore. Fortunately although it was serious and I needed to take action immediately once I identified the problem (I have no sensation below Chest Level due to my Spinal Injury and therefore I am prone to such damage because I do not get a Pain Signal to warn me of trouble like ‘normal’ People get), it wasn’t all that bad and with careful management I have successfully got it pretty much fixed now although I am still sat on the Sofa with my Left Hip hanging off so that there is no pressure on it.
Last October was really tough because I got frustrated and this was particularly because we had a proper ‘Indian Summer’ so I missed out on this and it was really grating. However, I think a bonus of this was that I learnt some sneaky tricks about how to dress the wound and these techniques have helped me fix this one quite effectively, I think. The problem is that if a Doctor or Nurse saw it they would go utterly mental and say I have to go to Hospital where they would basically make me lie on a bed forever with no pressure on it whatsoever. Clearly this makes it heal much faster but it is not exactly pleasant. My sneaky tricks in essence involve using that ‘Spongetex’ Cleaning Foam stuff you can buy extremely cheaply and chopping it into squares with a Hole in them (bit like a square Polo Mint) and sticking these over the wound with more soft pads and stuff so that for short periods of time I can sit in my Wheelchair and use the Loo without causing more damage. It is not perfect and no doubt takes a bit longer to heal than if I had my weight off it completely but if is far more pleasant than going to Hospital and much better for my mental state. Besides that there is telly to watch and Blogs to write !!! There was one dodgy moment about a week ago where I was a bit worried because I had not seen the wound for 3 days and when I took all the clever dressings and Spongetex off I was not happy with how the Pressure Sore looked (when you have not seen the wound for several days it really is full-on trepidation as you peel the tape and padding off because you never know what is lurking underneath). It felt warm and was quite red and puffy (I had been sat on the Loo for a while and I suspect this was what caused it – in effect it was making the Pressure Sore worse) and I was worried it had got infected. Anyway, this would be a disaster if it had and would mean I had to call a District Nurse and I wasn’t sure what to do and then I decided that there was only one thing for it so I grabbed a sewing needle which was conveniently near my bed and drowned it in antiseptic stuff and stabbed the Pressure Sore with it !! Desperate times need desperate measures. Sorry if you are eating as you read this. This helped put my mind at ease – I figured that if there was an abscess where the Infection was under the skin then it would ooze out and be all yellow and pussy and stuff (I hope you have stopped eating by now !!) and luckily it came out as nice clean red blood and there didn’t look to be a problem. I then drenched it in antiseptic creams and stuff and covered it up and a few days later when I looked again the Sore was much much better and clearly there was no infection. I had intended to write this Blog tomorrow Night (it is Saturday as I type) but out of the blue I got invited to a Barbeque and I would like to go to that tomorrow Night if I can. The limiting factor is the Sore and to be honest I thought it would be fully healed when I looked at it today but it is still not quite as good as I would like so that I can safely sit on it all day without doing more damage. I have told my friends that I will look at the Sore tomorrow and if it is good enough I will attend the Barbie but I will pack it with my patent sneaky Spongetex and hopefully that will do the job. So I am typing this now on the Sofa and when I get to the Chart bits I am going to sit up in my Wheelchair and do those on the Big Screen and then get back on the Sofa once I have done that bit because I can upload using the Laptop on the Sofa no problem. I have to say this new whizzy Laptop has been a result because the extra battery life and the bigger keyboard have meant I can get a lot of work done whilst I have been a bit limited in what I can do. This is why I seem to have been immensely productive recently !! Last Week With all the messiness in the Markets my Short Positions finally started to do their job and this meant that my Portfolio gained 0.7% on the Week which I am obviously very happy about. This has got me back to Breakeven on the Year and because my Shorts are far much larger than I would like, the chances are that any more weakness will play into my hands. I also want to Short a bit more to get my Average Price up (remember I am Short so it is the opposite of ‘Averaging Down’ when you buy a Stock) and I will be watching the Charts with intense focus in coming days and I might Short more Monday Night depending on how things look. I will use a Strict Stoploss though as I don’t want to dig my hole any deeper !! Blog Slate I mentioned that I had been hugely productive in the last couple of Weeks and it is in the Blog Slate that this is apparent. I issued a couple in the Week just gone with a Guest Blog about Human Resources Management that was submitted to me by Zoe Talent Solutions and is worth a read and last night I published the second Part of the Blogs about Mark Simpson’s book ‘Excellent Investing’ which is well worth a read even if you will never buy the book (mind you, it is worth buying a copy). We also issued a new TPI Podcast which is a recording of the ‘Live’ Event we did at the Mello Conference in Chiswick a while back. This has taken time to get out because Peter @Conkers3 had to do some clever technical stuff to it to get the volume right on the various Audience Members but I have to say it is worth the wait because I was dubious afterwards with regards to how it had gone but on listening to the Podcast the other night it really is very good. ”Thank you” to all the Audience Members who participated because it worked really well with lots of useful learning points. If you scoot over to the ‘Podcasts’ page then there is a Link to it and it sits on SoundCloud where you can become a Follower which is a good idea. Oh, whilst mentioning that I will just lob in that I also finally did that rejig of the Website Pages I was on about a while back. It is a minor change to the WD2 Website and all it is was a move of the ‘Videos’ bit from the ‘Podcasts’ page and over to the ‘Twitter Feed’ page – I think it makes more sense and means that the Videos won’t get lost as more Podcasts get added at the top of the page. If you have not seen them, I strongly recommend that you watch the Videos as there is loads of educational content in them (assuming you can put up with my stunning good looks which of course can be very distracting for most people). I have produced a very decent Draft of a ‘Stock Buy Checklist’ for Blue-Sky AIM Story Stocks and I know a lot of Readers are itching to see this. It needs a bit more work but it is not far off being ready to publish. I might lob that out later this coming Week. I also made superb progress on the ‘You can’t time the Markets’ Blog and I think Readers will also find this one interesting if a little controversial !! I need more time to tweak it but it is in a good state so will appear in due course. I need to update the ‘Weekly Performance’ page because I am a couple of Months behind and need to do June and July. The latter turned out to be a decent Month as it happens and my Portfolio recovered from down about 3% at the low point (I was getting hit hard on the Hedges) but as I type now things are back at Breakeven. It is a weird thing seeing your Portfolio drop as the Markets rise !! Anyway, I have done very well on the Income Portfolio this year so I am not moaning and when I do the Weekly Performance Update I will check the value of that Account and let you know how it stands. Obviously the huge Hedges have meant that my Downside Risk has been very low all year but I suspect that stance will pay off soon as we head towards various potentially messy Political and Economic events and we have the notoriously tough Months of September and October not far off. I think that is just about it. The only other big thing is that I am even more sure that I want to write a Book and I have been thinking about that and how to do it efficiently and suchlike. It is a major undertaking and won’t happen for a long time but hopefully it will come to fruition and I fancy the challenge of doing it. Right, let’s do the Charts because I don’t have time for any more waffle. WheelieBash Saturday 7th September I lied – just a bit more waffle before we do the Charts. The response to the Bash this year has been amazing – last year we had 40 people come along and I agreed with Landlord Phil that we would have a maximum of 60 this year and it looks like we will get that easy. At the time of typing there are just 6 Places left and if you want to come then please Email me or DM me ASAP. There are details on the ‘Events’ page on WD2 with regards to what it is all about and everyone is invited and it should be a right laugh. I am already pondering the plan for 2020 – it is obvious we could get a lot more People but I would still like to do it at the White Hart as it is a great venue. One idea was an Afternoon shift and an Evening shift which might work and another was to have 2 WheelieBashes – I will mull this over and consult with a few of the key attendees who make it the success it is. S&P500 I’m back on the BIG SCREEN now and my goodness does it look huge. I have no idea what size it is but it certainly dwarfs the 15inch one I have on the laptop (boasting). It is amazing how fast our brains adapt but hopefully my fingers can adapt to this keyboard because it is awful at the moment and I had obviously got used to the smaller laptop one. As ever the Charts come from SharePad and if you click on them they should get larger. I will skimp on the explanations this week and that will teach you to read my Updates properly in future !! First up the one I am most focused on which is the 13/21 Day EMAs. Where my Black Arrow is you can see they have nearly done a Bear Cross – if this happens, it is a big signal to me to Short more and as you will see if you look at these Lines over time, the Bear and Bull Crosses are extremely good predictors of what is to come in the next few weeks.
Next we have the Monthly Candles. I am looking at these ‘longer term’ Indications first because it is the bigger picture that I am interested in as if we do get a significant fall, it will show up in these Charts. On this one please imagine that the Black Down Candle in my Black Ellipse is not there and you must ignore it – this is because that is for August and it is not valid until it is fully formed up. What we are interested in is the ‘Shooting Star’ sort of Candle which was formed in July where my Blue Arrow is and this is Bearish in the context of the gains we have had in the months beforehand.
Now the Weekly. My Red Arrow is pointing to a big Black Down Candle – that is Bearish.
On the next one please look at the bottom window which has the RSI for the S&P500 Daily. Where my Arrow is we have a reading of RSI 45 which is around Neutral but note it is falling. This suggests that the move down from last Week could go down more before a proper and sustainable bounce. It is not in any way Oversold yet.
In the Upper Window we have the Daily Heiken Ashi Candles for the S&P500. My Blue Arrow is pointing to the HA Candle from Friday and this is Big Black and Bearish.
Now the Daily Candles. My Red Arrow is pointing to a sort of Hammer from Friday and this suggests a short-term bounce – that contradicts what I said on the RSI Chart but they are not incompatible – it would be possible to bounce in the very short term only to then fizzle out and drop down again. The falls last Week were very sharp and I would be very surprised if the Market just shakes them off and charges on higher. I would expect a very low Reading on the RSI before a proper recovery that can be sustained. Note on Friday it Closed near the 50 Day Moving Average Line which is that Blue Wavy Line.
Now the Daily Candles with the Pink Zone marking the Bollinger Bands. Where my Arrow is the Hammer from Friday was largely off the Bottom Band and this itself suggests a bounce of some sort is possible. However, when the Market really gets a grump on it can ‘hug’ the Bottom Band and go lower.
FTSE100
Two birds with one slingshot here. First off my Black Arrow is pointing to the 13/21 Day EMA Lines and at the moment they don’t seem to have done a Bear Cross but this is what we need to watch for. At the same time, look at the Big Black Down Candle from Friday and this is obviously bearish although with such a strong move down a short-term bounce must be possible and likely.
Now the Monthlies. Again, ignore the one in the Ellipse and my Blue Arrow is pointing to an Up Candle for July but note it Closed off the High of the Month which is sort of a bit like a Shooting Star. Note also that the High of the Wick on the July Candle is lower than the High of the Wick on the previous High Candle from back in May 2018 where the New All Time High just over 7900 was put in. That ain’t a great sign for Bulls.
Next the Weekly. My Red Arrow is pointing to a truly horrible Candle – a Big Black Body and look at how long that Wick up above is – shows a big Reversal.
In the bottom window on the next one we have the RSI for the Daily. On a Reading bang on RSI 50 where my Arrow is this is Neutral but note the direction is falling. It is not Oversold in any way obviously and has ‘room’ to fall a lot.
Where my Red Arrow is we have a Big Black Down Candle on the Heiken Ashi – Bearish.
On the Bollinger Bands the FTSE100 Closed right down at the Bottom Band on Friday – we could get a bounce but can it be sustained?
OK, that’s scared you all enough. I will be tweeting every night as usual about what I see on the Charts but it is most definitely a time to be careful. Back to the Sofa for me !! Cheers, WD.
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