I attended the Mello Event in Chiswick on Friday and had a really enjoyable and useful day. The thing that really stood out to me was how there was such a range of ages (although sadly, the Private Investor world still has a bit of a significant challenge when it comes to gender !!) with probably the youngest being 16 or something going up to a youthful 87. It is great to see such a spectrum and it really is the case that despite there being lots of middle-aged blokes there is also a decent level of representation from the 30s and 40s in particular. It is also worth bearing in mind that these Events take place on weekdays and obviously this rules out a lot of younger people who have to work and have family commitments etc.
Later in the day @Conkers3 and myself conducted our ‘TPI Live’ session and it worked out really well. We definitely had the ‘graveyard slot’ at nearly 5pm which obviously limited the number of people attending but we still had a good group and the interactivity of getting everyone involved worked really well (the credit for this has to go to @Conkers3 for his Ringmaster skills and those who attended because the interactive nature could not have happened if everyone had just sat there like a bag of spuds). I wasn’t too sure about how well the session had gone (partly because from about half way through I started having lots of irritating muscle spasms which meant I was very distracted and had to keep stretching out my legs !!) but the feedback from the audience afterwards was really positive and I am also extremely pleased with the feedback we are getting about the Podcasts and this is borne out by the number of Listens which is starting to get very respectable (if you haven’t listened to the Podcast yet then skip over to the ‘Podcasts/Videos’ page and there are links there).
The TPI Live session was recorded and depending on how it comes out we may well release it for everyone to see (huge THANKS to Dan for his expertise in pointing the camera in the right direction !!). Who knows what the future will bring and perhaps we will be doing more TPI Lives down the line and we got loads of ideas from the audience for future Podcast subjects so we should be able to keep these dripping out. They are fun to do and if they are clearly being well supported we are keen to do them.
Without doubt this was the ‘busiest’ Event I have been to in terms of people coming up to say “Hi you old muppet” and such warm welcomes and it was great to meet so many people in the flesh that I know through Twitter etc. and I also managed to meet lots of people who know very little about me and what I do but it was noticeable that many seemed to be aware of the WD name. That’s very inspiring and gives me confidence that people like the stuff I put out and encourages me to keep it coming and to try to do the best material I can. I was particularly encouraged by the number of people who said how much they liked my Website and it is great to hear newer Investors/Traders comment on how much it has helped their learning process – that is exactly what I want to be achieving. Having said all that sadly I did not win any of the Mello Awards this year (I am still sobbing my eyes out ……..) but without doubt the competition has ratcheted up and the winners of the categories that apply to me were truly worthy of the Awards. The one I really had my eye on was the Website/Educational category so I need to up my game !!! Overall the feedback I heard about the Event was pretty much entirely gushing – the only negatives I heard were around the Awards Ceremony and it seemed that they were not attended all that well and it must have been because I didn’t win any !!! People seem to have loved all the Company Presentations and Stands and although I did not manage to attend any myself (don’t worry, Tamzin and Tim at piworld did a superb job and there should be buckets and buckets and buckets of new Videos coming out on their Website in coming weeks as they edit them and stuff and get them released), I had many discussions with people about what was said and regarding particular aspects and clearly they were very useful sessions and I picked up many examples of where the Directors had really gone ‘above & beyond’ to help clarify Investor’s understanding. This brings me on to…….. Mello Select This is an initiative that was thought up by Steve @melody9999 and is being undertaken via Twitter and Steve will pull together all the inputs from the Twitterati and the plan is to create a ‘Guest Blog’ which will appear on my Website in a few weeks. What we need people who attended Mello to do is to give us the names of up to 3 Companies that you liked the most and please also give up to 6 Bullet Points on why you liked them. If you can please copy Steve and myself on the Tweet (or Tweets) that you send and please use the Hashtag #melloselect. Steve will then take all the responses and create the document for the Guest Blog which everyone will be able to use as a resource for Ideas. It will take a few Weeks for us to get this done so you will have plenty of time to buy before everyone sees your brilliant suggestions !! Many thanks for helping with this. The strength of the Twitterati and Mello etc. Community is that we can all help each other and share knowledge so that everyone can achieve better things and Steve’s initiative is completely in this vein and big thanks to him for offering to do the ‘donkey work’ on it. Last Week / Strategy Funny old week for me (in an unpleasant sense really !!) with my Portfolio suffering to the tune of 0.75%. I have not analysed in depth why this happened but I suspect a lot of it was simply down to the FTSE100 and US Markets doing quite well and therefore the Hedges I have on these Indexes dragged on my Long Portfolio of normal Shares and Long Spreadbets. It was notable on Friday in particular that lots of my Stocks fell quite a bit and I did not get much offset from the Index Shorts despite there being signs that the Indexes might still be quite weak (I will cover this more in the Charts section further down this Blog and it certainly lines up with my thinking last Weekend when looking at the Charts when I felt a bounce was on the cards but that it might not have legs.) It is quite possible that the FTSE100 benefitted from considerable weakness in the Pound Sterling last week as the Brexit fiasco continued in the normal style and the impending departure of Theresa May (about time !!!) seems to have heightened fears that the next Leader of the Conservative Party and therefore the next Prime Minister will be a Brexiteer and highly likely to be either Boris or Dominic Raab – either one could make a ‘No Deal’ Brexit very possible and of course this will stoke up all sorts of Economic Fears amongst the vast majority of the Public who know entirely zilch about how an Economy works anyway !! The Brexit pantomime gets a special performance on Thursday this coming week with the EU Parliament Elections and it is obvious that the Brexit Party under Nigel Farage is going to win big. What is notable from the Polls is that the ‘Remain’ Parties are really struggling and it is very possible that after the results of the Vote are out, the calls for another Referendum will die down. I suspect the Pound is already predicting this. The only hope the Second Referendum enthusiasts can have is for the Labour Party to go this way but there are huge problems for Labour if they do this because it means they could lose support of ‘Leave’ areas in the North and also many Target Seats for a General Election are Leave voting and unlikely to be happy with Labour going all soft and squidgy on Brexit. Besides that, Corbyn detests the EU in the classic Tony Benn tradition. I don’t think we will get the Results of the EU Elections until after the Weekend – it might be Sunday Night I recall. However, it seems likely there will be ‘Exit Polls’ on Thursday Night and these could cause the Pound to react and therefore the FTSE100 on Friday – we shall see no doubt although the correlation of the FTSE100 and the Quid are not as perfectly inverse as many think and for much of 2019 both have been rising together. A weaker Pound could also hurt the FTSE250 because many constituent companies are Retailers and stuff and these would face higher input costs if they import products from abroad for onward sale to UK Consumers etc. If the FTSE250 suffers, it is highly likely that the smaller Indexes would suffer as well. Anyway I could probably scribble about the various twists and 180s on Brexit all night but it boils down to a complete balls up and presents considerable risk to Stocks and the UK Economy and as such I retain my stance of month after month now of pretty much doing nothing. I would like to remove my Shorts at the earliest possible opportunity but with things as they are it is highly possible that Markets will take a battering again and the Shorts will then prove very valuable as protection. In terms of my Stocks I am in no mood to buy and more likely to Sell or at least TopChop but it’s mostly a wait and see stance. I am interested in Vodafone VOD for my Income Portfolio but it is still in a Major Downtrend Channel and I am not rushing to buy it until it at least escapes this trend. I want some for my Income Portfolio because even after the Dividend Cut last week, it is still expected to yield 6% and that is now more sustainable following the Cut because the money that would have gone on Dividends can now be diverted to other important needs like trying to reduce the Debt and of course the 5g Licences which are coming up. On an even bigger scale, the Global Economy has been giving mixed signals with some signs that the Slowdown that has been around recently could be easing although it is not in any way certain. On the downside, there are significant things like Retail Sales growth in China in a downtrend and many signs of weakness across the EU. There are plenty of excuses for Markets to get seriously moody and things such as the spat with Iran and the China Tariffs aren’t helping. On top of this we know May can be a very weak month and June is actually the Second Worst month – only beaten for its historical rubbishness by September. At least July tends to see a bit of recovery. Oh, I did get around to selling the KCOM Positions I had so that the gains are locked in now whether or not the Takeover happens. If you go to my ‘Trades’ page you should see more details on this. WheelieBash 2019 You can find out more details about this on the ‘Events’ page which is on WD2 (there is a Button at the top of the main Homepage on the main Website and you are actually reading this Blog on WD2 even if you hadn’t realized so if you go to the top of the Page you should find the Menu to get you to the ‘Events’ page) and it is taking place on Saturday 7th September and I can confirm that it will be held at the same venue as last year - the White Hart in Winkfield which is just outside Windsor. There is a link on the Events page to the Pub and everyone is invited but please contact me somehow if you are coming because I need to keep track of the numbers - we are allowed 60 People and it is pretty likely we will get that I think - the List is filling up fast with 20 confirmed attendees already and a lot of people at Mello said they are interested and will let me know (and that was not prompted by me). Gaydon Museum Meet-up You can also find out details about this one on the ‘Events’ page and the crux of it is that I will be at the National Heritage Motor Museum at Gaydon (it’s a bit below Birmingham I think) on Friday 12th July. Again everyone is invited and you just need to pay the entry fee to the Museum but it is well worth going and we should have a good laugh. Come and join us. I am not too worried about knowing who is coming because it is a huge venue and a public place anyway. Generally these kinds of Meet-ups tend to be smaller with perhaps around a dozen people or so which means that if you are new to investing or anything then they can be a superb opportunity to meet up with the highly experienced and successful Investors who I know are coming along. It is well worth taking advantage of. Blog Slate I published the first part of the Educational Blogs on Overconfidence and Market Inefficiencies a few days ago and I don’t need to do all that much work to complete the second part and this should appear later in the coming week. I had intended to do some work on a new Blog idea I have had but when I got home from Mello on Friday I just didn’t fancy it and was probably quite tired anyway. Last night I had meant to start on the Blog but did some other stuff which needed doing and by getting some chores done as well it should free up some time for me to focus on Blog writing. After Mello my head was buzzing with ideas for Blogs and my insanely long list of potential Blogs has managed to grow even longer. I better have considerable longevity so I can get all these written !!! As always, the best approach I suggest is to look at the ‘Changes List’ on the Main Homepage whenever you visit the Websites as this tells you what has changed and where to find it. From prehistoric times………. Recently I did those @Stealthsurf inspired Blogs and seeing as they contained a lot of simple but important Technical Analysis concepts and because I know I have been mentioning ‘Bull Flags’ quite a bit on the Tweets lately, I thought this one would be a decent bit of revision for regular (oh no, not the ‘All Bran’ WheelieQuip again) Readers and unfortunate individuals who have just discovered my Website can suffer it as well. It’s character building you know…. http://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/waving-the-bull-flag-with-special-guests-dtg-and-emr Enough gibbering, let’s have some pretty pictures !! S&P500 As per usual the images I show are screen-grabs from the excellent SharePad software website cloud thing that I subscribe to. If you click on the images then they should get larger so you can see some detail. As always I must first apologise for the messiness of the Charts because these are my actual working screens (I call it ‘Keeping it Real’ !!) so I will try and guide you with my Arrows and Comments. The Chart below is the Daily Candlesticks for the S&P500 and will be very similar to the Chart I showed last weekend. By definition really my Weekend Markets Blogs tend to show just incremental changes on a situation that prevailed the week earlier. My Black Arrow is pointing at the Candle from Friday where we got a sort of Inverted Hammer although it is to be noted that the ‘context’ here is not typical for a textbook Inverted Hammer Reversal where you would have a long run up first and then the IH. However, on Friday the S&P500 could not hold the High of the day at 2885 and it is apparent that 2900 is a fairly tough Resistance Level at the moment (there are about 4 Candles in the last 7 or so that have dropped back after getting near to 2900). Lower down where my Green Arrow is there looks to be good Support at 2800 but I suspect any weakness in the next few Days and it will soon be smashed through. My Red Arrow is pointing to a Bullish ‘Golden Cross’ between the Blue Lines which are the 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages. However, these are quite a ‘slow’ indicator and not hugely reliable. Anyway, the lighter Blue Wavy Line is the 200 Day MA and note how the Price is quite near that now with it sitting at 2775 – this could be some Support. In the top Left Hand Corner we have my Red Ellipse and this is just pointing out the Previous All Time High (ATH) and we got up and slightly beyond this just before dropping back in the last few Weeks.
In the bottom window on the Screen below we have the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) for the S&P500 Daily. My Black Arrow is trying to point out where the Histogram Bars are heading towards the Bullish direction but it would need at least a couple of Up Days to get there I would think – so we could easily turn down and miss a Bullish MACD Cross. Such a ‘skim-off’ and miss would actually be more Bearish than anything.
In the bottom window on the next Screen we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the S&P500 Daily and on a reading of RSI 50 it is at the ‘Neutral’ level. I am not sure this tells us much – the RSI is more useful at its extremes I find.
This next Chart is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT and one of the key reasons I am still taking the view that the S&P500 is weak and likely to fall lower despite the bounce of last week. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Bearish Cross between the 13 and 21 Day Exponential Moving Averages (the 13 is the Black one) and crucially this took place over a Week ago and it is still ‘in force’. Look what happened where my Black Arrow is in the Top Left Hand Corner which resulted in considerable Falls. We need to see a Bull Cross like where my Red Arrow is.
The next Chart has the Weekly Candles for the S&P500. My Arrow is pointing to a ‘Long Tails’ Doji from last Week and this is not a Reversal Candle which implies we will see more falls. You can see clearly here how key Support at 2800 is.
FTSE100
First off we have the Daily Candles for the FTSE100. My Black Arrow is pointing to a Hammer Candle sort of thing from Friday and in the context of the move up in the Days before, this could be a Reversal Candle (I think it looks like a ‘Hanging Man’ although a more textbook context would have had more of a run up beforehand). The High on Friday was 7354 and above there is Resistance at 7418, 7456, and 7529 where my Green Arrow is. Where my Blue Arrow is we have Support at 7150 and obviously if this fails then we could go down to 7000 and possibly below.
In the bottom window on the Screen below we have the MACD on the FTSE100 Daily. My Black Arrow is pointing out that we are on the verge of a Bullish MACD Cross – this suggests we can go higher but this is contrary to what the Candles suggest – we will see how it plays out and we could easily do a ‘skim-off’ and go lower. I don’t find the MACD all that great an indicator.
In the main window on the Screen below we have the Daily Heiken Ashi Candles for the FTSE100. These are very different to normal Candles and my Red Arrow is pointing to a Big White Up HA Candle and this suggests bullishness.
This might seem contradictory to the Candles I showed earlier but it needs to be realised that HA Candles are ‘slow’ because they form up as an average over 2 Days – so a turn has a delay before it gets reflected in the HA Candles but this is the beauty of the HAs in that you get clear signals and a lot of Noise is filtered out. If you look back at how they turn from Black to White and then back to Black etc. then you can see the clarity.
The RSI on the FTSE100 is reading RSI 52 which is pretty much Neutral so I won’t bother showing it.
As with the S&P500 the FTSE100 is showing a Bear Cross to be in force on the 13/21 Day EMA Lines as per the Blue Arrow on the Screen below. The Red Arrow shows a previous Bear Cross and we need a Bull Cross like the Black Arrow. Without doubt this is one of my favourite Indicators and if you put me on a Desert Island and said I could only have one then it would be this one (I will need a Laptop and Power Supply as well please).
Now we have the Weekly Candles for the FTSE100. My Blue Arrow shows a big White Up Candle and this looks quite Bullish to me. However, because these form up over a Week they are by definition quite slow so we might get a drop back in coming Days but then a recovery would be consistent with this Bullish Weekly Candle. However, my hunch is we fall more and that either I am interpreting this Weekly Candle wrongly or that it fails as a signal. I would go by the 13/21 Day EMA Crosses more.
Vodafone VOD
I showed a similar Chart to this one a few Weekends ago. The key thing here is the Downtrend Line which is my Black Line with the Black Arrow and my Blue Arrow is showing where we are now which has been making fresh new Lows – never a good thing. In the very short-term we might bounce on VOD but it needs to get through the Black Downtrend Line to show some sort of strength and that the Bearish behaviour is ending.
In the bottom window below we have the RSI for VOD on the Daily and on a reading of RSI 23 this is extremely low and due a bounce.
The next chart suggests a bounce as well – but I would lean towards it being a short-term bounce rather than necessarily saying the Bottom is in. With that Major Downtrend Line still prevailing, I suspect we will see VOD below 123p over the Summer.
Right, I will end it there. Good luck in the coming battles and remember that if the Markets are frustrating and annoying then you are best off just ignoring them and going off and doing something useful. Go out and enjoy the weather if it is decent or go down the Pub or both !! Cheers, WD.
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Stocks & Markets WheelieBlogsThese tend to be more Markets and Stocks related and timely - the Blog Page on the Main WheelieDealer Website has the 'Educational' stuff (well that's the theory anyway !!). Archives
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