I’m looking forward to taking things easy in the coming week after a very hectic week in which I went down to Portsmouth, went up to Gaydon and then spent hours driving around Hyde Park in a futile attempt to find the Disabled Parking area which was rumoured to exist, before seeing Florence & the Machine. Fortunately we did manage to abandon the car and get to the concert but it wasn’t really the kind of relaxed and smooth journey I ideally needed. In a desperate hunt for any positives, at least it proved to me that my Seat Cupra is much easier to drive in London than the previous Leon I had and the Satnav is pretty good although of course it is probably a lot easier when you have a co-pilot who is using the system. If I had to worry about that as well as trying to drive, with pretty much every other road user trying to dent my car, it would probably be quite stressful and not something I want to submit myself to without good reason.
Flo was good though but with the caveat that she was extremely similar to the gig I saw there 3 years ago. Oh, and the other rather surreal thing was the Sign Language person on the Big Screen – work that one out !!
The visit to the Gaydon Motor Museum went really well and we had a small group of insightful, knowledgeable and good humoured people and it was well worth the trip. The innovation of going to the pub afterwards was a nifty idea and it meant that we all got a lot more out of the day with lots of discussions and it had the added bonus of letting the traffic quieten down so I would guess it made the journey home easier for all of us. The hunt will be on now to select a venue for next year and something in the Midlands around 2 hours tops from Windsor would be the sort of thing. I fancy a trip to Brooklands which is not far from me and I might throw that open to everyone next year as well as a trip more ‘up country’ so people who are further away can attend. I was also wondering about a Saturday trip and maybe that is a good idea as more people might be able to come who are obviously working during the week. I was particularly pleased to meet up with Mark Simpson (@DangerCapital on Twitter) who has been investing for around the same length of time as myself and has built up a huge amount of experience and knowledge. I have always thought I had come across him before (we met briefly at the Derby Mello last year but I don’t mean in that sense) and it turns out he used to run a blog with the ‘Danger Capital’ name and that is where I read some of his stuff. Anyway, it turns out that he is writing a Book (or rather I should say he has written a Book because it should be out very soon) and I suspect it will be well worth reading because Mark clearly knows his stuff. It has struck me for a while that with Robbie Burn’s excellent ‘Naked Trader’ Books the beginners end of the Book market is pretty much sewn up and the recent offering by Michael Taylor ‘Shifting Shares’ is a very strong complement and must be read (if you go to the ‘Weekly Performance’ page on my website you can click on the book image and that will take you to where you can sign up for a copy – it is FREE and worth getting). So Mark’s new Book is going to be, in his words, “The sort of book I wish had been around for me to read after I had been investing for a few years already”, and on that basis his Book should fill a clear gap in what is available. He is going to publish it on Amazon via Kindle or Print format and the Prices he is thinking of charging sound about right to me and are not bad at all. Anyway, watch this space and I will let you know once it is released and I hope to be reviewing it myself in the coming weeks. I also plan to put the pictures from the Gaydon Trip onto the ‘Events’ page and I will try to do that next week at some point. The images have already gone around on Twitter but I like to keep a record of our Events for posterity. Of course the next one is the ‘WheelieBash 2019’ which is on Saturday the 7th September and you can find full details on the ‘Events’ page – everyone is invited and it is well worth coming along, whatever your level of experience. Last Week I have had such a poor run on my Portfolio in recent Weeks that I was chuffed to bits to actually be up just 0.2% last Week – after the run I have had it is a very welcome relief. I am not really sure what tipped it in my favour but I suspect it is the weakness in the FTSE100 which has helped as my Short has benefitted but I will have suffered on my S&P500 Short but that is relatively a lot smaller in size. I don’t recall my Stocks doing much amazing in themselves and if anything they were extremely mixed. We seem to be fully in those sort of really dull and boring Summer Markets where not a lot is happening and this is particularly noticeable in the Mornings when the RNS Statements come out with very few Results or Trading Updates some days and that is totally normal. At the Index level things are quite unusual because the US Markets have disconnected from the European ones and the US have been putting in new All Time Highs whereas the European Indexes have been weak. This seems to be mirroring the Economies with the US Economy about the only one that is humming along but the Federal Reserve who set Interest Rates are worried that it is going to slow down and they are talking about Rate Cuts. I suspect that if the US does start to slow then cutting Rates won’t make a whole load of difference – Rates are low anyway and any Cuts that come as a result of fears of trouble ahead are hardly sending out a great signal to the Market of how the Economy is doing. In Europe there is continual news of weakness and Germany looks very close to going into ‘Recessionary’ territory. If that happens, then France and Italy are very exposed and of course the UK is in the middle of a Political implosion and anything could happen in the coming Months and I cannot imagine much if any let up in the fight between Political, Business and Media Elites who want the UK to ‘Remain’ in the UK and the Political and Business and People on the other side who want their vote to ‘Leave’ to be respected. The potential for Social explosions is immense. So I see no reasons to change my Strategy of not doing much at all and I will ‘keep on keeping on’ with my main focus being on when to add more to my Short Position on the FTSE100 to raise my Average ‘In’ Price and to get me out of the predicament as soon as I can. I suspect the Autumn is going to be very ‘entertaining’………. Blog Slate I can’t spend much time on this bit tonight so I suggest you look at what I wrote in the ‘Blog Slate’ section last week, which will give you a very detailed list of the stuff I am either about to work on, working on, or lined up for me to address in the near future. In the week just gone I published the Blog about PCF that was kindly provided by Paul Hawkins (@Hawkeye_74) and this week I plan to write a short Blog about why I bought a starter position in LVCG. Following on from the trip up to Gaydon, I have got my thoughts around ‘Time in the Market as opposed to timing the Market’ all straightened out (thanks Martin !!) and once I have the LVCG one written I can shift my attention to getting those written. I think Readers will find it very useful. An Old Banger of a Blog for you I can’t recall why but as part of our group chats at Gaydon, I got thinking about the idea that I come across a lot of quite experienced and knowledgeable Investors and Traders who have a sort of psychological and mental block when it comes to actually making a Buy Decision (this probably applies to Sell Decisions as well but I notice it more on the Buy side) and I remember writing a Blog about it called ‘Pulling the Trigger’. Anyway, it turns out that I didn’t actually write one with that title and instead the idea is captured in the Series I wrote called ‘Evolution of an Investor’ but by coincidence I included that Series in last Week’s blog: http://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/evolution-of-an-investor-part-1-of-4 If you go to last Weekend’s Blog then there are links to the other parts of the Series. Here’s another Blog for you anyway: http://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/educational-blogs/analysing-the-analysts A quick whizz through the Index Charts is next on the Agenda then…….. S&P500 As always the Charts I show are taken from SharePad and if you click on the Images then they should get larger so you can see more detail. First off here is the Weekly Candlestick Chart for the S&P500 and where my Red Arrow is we have made a new All Time High with a nice White Up Candle and this looks Bullish. Note it is up near the higher Green Line (marked by my Green Arrow) and perhaps this will act as a cap on the Price but as yet there is no sign of this.
On the Daily Candles, my Blue Arrow below is showing a nice Big White Up Candle from Friday and on the face of it this looks Bullish. However, remember there is often a ‘Monday reverses Friday’ effect which might kick in.
In the bottom window on the Screen below we have the RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) for the S&P500 Daily. On a Reading of RSI 68 where my Black Arrow is, this is quite a high Reading and although it can go higher, the upside in the short term might be limited.
Next it is the Daily Heiken Ashi Candlesticks for the S&P500. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a nice White Up HA Candle and this looks Bullish.
Next we have the Daily Candles for the S&P500 with the Pink Zone marking the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. My Black Arrow is pointing to where the Candle from Friday was quite near the Upper Band but it clearly has ‘room’ to move up (and of course it can ‘hug’ the Band higher if it is really in a Bullish mood).
The Dow Jones Industrials (the DOW) and the Nasdaq Composite US Tech Indexes are pretty much the same story as the S&P500 so I won’t show them this week.
FTSE100 First up we have the Weekly Candles and this most definitely is a very different story to what we have just seen in the US. On the Chart below my Blue Arrow is pointing at a fairly Narrow Black Down Candle and note how this is ‘Inside’ the White Up Candle from the Week before and note how that previous Candle was unable to hold its High at about 7625 where my Red Arrow is. This is bad in 2 ways – the failure to hold the High on the previous Week is bad and if you take the 2 Candles in combination, then it looks like a Bearish Harami Pattern.
Next we have the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 and my Red Arrow is pointing to a Doji Candle from Friday and yet again that was unable to hold the High of the Day which is not good. We have had a string of about 5 small Doji Candles leading up to this and it could just be a ‘Pullback’ in the Uptrend but it is not clear really. To an extent the key is the High at about 7623 and if Bulls are still in charge here, then they will prove it by taking out this Resistance.
I don’t usually show this as I do not find it a great Indicator as it gives a lot of False Signals. Anyway, make of it what you will be in the bottom window on the next Image we have the MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) for the FTSE100 Daily and my Black Arrow is pointing to a Bearish MACD Cross on the ‘Histogram Bars’ format and my Blue Arrow is pointing to exactly the same thing on the ‘Signal Lines’ format. This tends to be a very short term Indicator.
In the bottom window on the next Chart we have the RSI for the FTSE100 Daily and on a Reading of RSI 60 where my Black Arrow is that is not a particularly silly high Reading but note the direction is downwards.
Next it is the Daily Heiken Ashi Candles for the FTSE100. Where my Red Arrow is we have a sizeable Black Down HA Candle and this is Bearish.
The next Chart has the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 but my focus is on the 13 and 21 Day Exponential Moving Average Lines which are the Black Wiggly Line and the Red Wiggly Line in that order. Where my Black Arrow is the ‘Faster’ Black 13 Day EMA Line is above the ‘Slower’ Red 21 Day EMA Line and this is still in Bull Mode. For that to change, you would need a Bearish Crossover which would be like the one where my Blue Arrow is.
Finally we have the Daily Candles for the FTSE100 with the Bollinger Bands marked by the Pink Zone. My Blue Arrow is pointing to where the Price is now not far from the Bottom Band so perhaps it will find support there.
OK, that’s it for this Weekend – good luck in the coming week and remember to take time away from all those screens !!! Cheers, WD.
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